On October 3, 2025, tensions between India and Pakistan surged to new heights after Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi issued an extraordinary warning to Islamabad, accusing it of state-sponsored terrorism and suggesting that Pakistan’s very existence could be at stake if it did not change course. Speaking at an Army post in Rajasthan’s Anupgarh, Gen Dwivedi’s remarks were pointed and unambiguous: “This time we will not maintain the restraint that we had in Operation Sindoor 1.0. This time we will do something that will make Pakistan think whether it wants to retain its place in geography or not,” he was quoted as saying by NDTV.
The general’s address to troops was not just rhetorical bluster. He told soldiers to remain prepared, adding, “If God wills, you will get an opportunity soon.” The comments came in the wake of a major escalation in hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbors that began with the April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which left 26 tourists dead. According to ANI, this was the deadliest assault on Indian civilians since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. New Delhi quickly linked four suspects to the Pahalgam attack, two of whom were Pakistani nationals, and accused Islamabad of direct complicity.
The Indian response was swift and forceful. On May 7, Indian fighter jets struck targets inside Pakistan, described by Indian officials as “terrorist infrastructure.” This marked the initiation of Operation Sindoor, a campaign that, as defense expert Anil Gaur explained to ANI, was intended not only to target terrorist bases but also to extend to military and civilian establishments if necessary. “Operation Sindoor has shown what India can do, and this time they are very clear in their minds that it will not be restricted only to terrorist bases, but will also include military and civilian establishments,” Gaur stated.
The subsequent days saw a dramatic escalation: cross-border strikes with jets, missiles, drones, and artillery continued until a ceasefire took effect on May 10, leaving multiple casualties on both sides. In July, India announced that three militants involved in the Pahalgam attack had been killed, insisting it had “detailed proof” of their Pakistani identity. Pakistan’s foreign ministry, however, dismissed these claims as “fabricated.”
The aerial battle that unfolded during this period remains fiercely contested. On October 3, Indian Air Force Chief Amar Preet Singh claimed that Indian forces had shot down five Pakistani fighter jets, including F-16s and JF-17s, during the May hostilities. He credited India’s integrated air defenses for what he described as a record surface-to-air engagement and noted that Indian strikes had also targeted radar arrays, command centers, and runways. “We are fully prepared this time. We will not show the restraint we exhibited during Operation Sindoor 1.0. This time, the action will be such that perhaps Pakistan will have to think whether it wants to exist geographically,” General Dwivedi echoed during his visit to forward areas, including the Bikaner Military Station, as reported by ANI.
Pakistan, for its part, categorically rejected India’s version of events. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told the UN General Assembly that Pakistani pilots “turned seven Indian jets into scrap,” while military spokespersons claimed J-10C fighters armed with PL-15 missiles had downed Rafales, a MiG-29, and a Su-30MKI. Islamabad circulated crash-site footage to bolster its narrative, portraying its actions as a defensive response to Indian strikes. Yet, as Reuters and BBC Verify have reported, independent verification remains elusive. Several widely shared videos and images have been identified as recycled or miscaptioned, with no neutral access to wreckage on either side.
France’s Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the Rafale, has denied reports of Rafale losses, while U.S. officials have expressed concern over possible F-16 damage. Meanwhile, China has downplayed its involvement, even as Pakistani media praised the performance of Chinese J-10C fighters and PL-15 missile systems. The absence of conclusive evidence has turned the May conflict into a battle of narratives as much as a battle in the skies, with both India and Pakistan seeking to claim victory and shape public perception at home and abroad.
The stakes of these conflicting claims are far from abstract. As Reuters notes, clashes between India and Pakistan always carry the risk of spiraling into a larger conflict, particularly given their nuclear capabilities. Military claims of downed aircraft can inflame nationalist sentiment on both sides, making future de-escalation all the more difficult. The millions of civilians living near the border remain the most vulnerable, facing the constant threat of renewed violence.
Operation Sindoor itself has become a symbol of India’s new approach to cross-border terrorism. According to General Dwivedi, the operation is now “linked to our lives in such a way that it will be with us for as long as we live… Whenever a woman applies sindoor on her forehead, she remembers the uniformed persons who are always guarding the borders of the country.” Defence expert Anil Gaur emphasized that the operation is ongoing and will continue “until Pakistan stops state-sponsored terrorism and ceases sending terrorists into India to create chaos and mayhem.”
The international community is watching the situation with growing concern. The United States, China, and the United Nations all have a vested interest in preventing escalation between the two rivals. Analysts warn that unverified claims and the absence of dialogue risk undermining deterrence in a nuclear-armed rivalry. As India pursues new fighter acquisitions and Pakistan deepens its ties with Beijing and Riyadh, the contested legacy of the May conflict underscores the volatility of the region.
Following the latest clashes, India suspended a key water-sharing treaty, which Pakistan described as an “act of war.” With diplomatic channels strained and both governments trading accusations, the prospects for de-escalation remain uncertain. However, as Reuters observed, international pressure could yet push New Delhi and Islamabad toward dialogue. Without it, the cycle of claim and counterclaim is likely to continue, keeping South Asia on edge.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. With both sides standing firm and the truth of the May air battle lost amid propaganda and counter-propaganda, the region remains locked in a dangerous standoff. The world can only hope that cooler heads—and credible evidence—prevail before the next flashpoint erupts.
