In a striking display of diplomatic maneuvering, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Tianjin, China, on August 31, 2025, to attend a high-profile security summit hosted by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The summit, which drew global headlines, brought together a formidable trio: Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, and Modi himself. Their public camaraderie—handshakes, smiles, and lively conversation—was impossible to miss, and the optics alone sent ripples through capitals from Washington to New Delhi.
Modi’s visit to China was more than a routine diplomatic engagement. It marked the first time in over seven years that the Indian leader had set foot in China, a hiatus stemming from the bruising Galwan Valley Incident in 2020. That episode saw Indian and Chinese troops clash in the high Himalayas of eastern Ladakh, resulting in casualties on both sides despite the absence of firearms. The violence left a deep scar, freezing relations and fueling mutual suspicion, particularly given China’s close ties to Pakistan and ongoing economic disputes.
Yet the timing of Modi’s trip was no accident. It came as India’s relationship with the United States faced new strains, most notably President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Indian exports to 50%. The move was in retaliation for India’s continued purchases of Russian oil—a sore point for Washington as it tries to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine conflict. Suddenly, the world’s largest democracy found itself squeezed between two superpowers, with its economy caught in the crosshairs.
For Modi, deepening ties with China offered a potential lifeline. According to Eric Olander, Editor in Chief of The China-Global South Project, both India and China now recognize that “they have more commonalities than differences,” even if progress will be slow and setbacks are inevitable. Olander cautioned, “We must be very cautious reading too much into this. It’s going to be a slow grinding process.” He also noted that India remains deeply wary of China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean, a point of ongoing tension that’s unlikely to vanish overnight.
The summit’s backdrop was the rapidly expanding influence of the SCO itself. What began in 1996 as a modest security mechanism among six countries—China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—has blossomed into a 26-member bloc spanning Asia, Europe, and Africa. Its ranks now include observer states like Mongolia and Afghanistan, as well as dialogue partners such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Even archrivals India and Pakistan are full-fledged members, making the SCO a rare forum where bitter enemies sit at the same table.
The presence of Modi in Tianjin, especially after Trump’s harsh criticism and the imposition of steep tariffs, did not go unnoticed in Washington. Some U.S. experts saw the summit as a potential challenge to American “unipolar domination,” with the trio of Putin, Xi, and Modi appearing to form a united front. Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, even went so far as to label the Ukraine-Russia war “Modi’s war” and made incendiary remarks about India’s upper caste, sparking outrage among Indians and drawing rebukes from U.S. strategists worried about the damage to the carefully cultivated India-U.S. partnership.
Just days after the SCO summit, China’s Victory Day Parade in Beijing further inflamed tensions. Trump accused the leaders of China, Russia, and North Korea of conspiring against America, and criticized China for omitting any reference to U.S. sacrifices during World War II. Modi, for his part, skipped the parade—citing India’s unresolved border issues with China and its close ties to Japan, a country that condemned the parade as anti-Japanese.
Despite the saber-rattling, some American defense officials downplayed the significance of China’s military displays. General Kevin Schneider, commander of U.S. Pacific Air Forces, remarked during an online talk, “The takeaway is that we are not deterred.” But behind the scenes, Trump’s erratic policies and controversial comments were causing headaches for U.S. diplomats, who scrambled to reassure allies and contain the fallout.
India’s drift toward China, at least in appearance, has unsettled many in Washington. The Quad alliance—comprising India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan—now faces an uncertain future, with experts warning that India’s tensions with the U.S. could weaken the grouping’s cohesion. Trump, who was invited to the upcoming Quad summit in India, has yet to confirm his attendance, while Indian officials remain tight-lipped about the country’s future role in the alliance. China, which views the Quad as an anti-China bloc, is watching these developments closely.
Yet the notion that India is pivoting wholesale into China’s orbit is an oversimplification. As several analysts point out, the cordiality on display at the SCO summit should not obscure the deep-seated differences between India and China. The border dispute remains unresolved and, as one German political scientist, Karl Schumacher, once quipped, “India will remain skeptical because the border issue may not be resolved in our lifetime.” Even as India has taken “baby steps” toward confidence-building—people-to-people contacts, improved air connectivity, and eased trade restrictions—the mistrust lingers. Modi’s absence from the Beijing parade was a reminder that the wounds of Galwan have not fully healed.
Meanwhile, the U.S. risks losing a vital partner. India, with its 1.4 billion people and growing global influence, wields considerable soft power that China, for all its economic and military might, cannot match. Many U.S. strategists warn that Trump’s tariff policies could cost America the friendship of the world’s largest democracy, a move that would be a major foreign policy blunder. As one American analyst put it, “If you tread on my toes with your heavy boots, I will push you away”—a sentiment that neatly captures India’s reaction to Trump’s heavy-handed approach.
There is, however, a window for reconciliation. Modi is expected to visit the United States soon to attend the United Nations General Assembly session, presenting an opportunity for him and Trump to meet and potentially mend fences. Both countries have much to gain from a reset: the U.S. remains a crucial market and source of investment for India, while India’s strategic autonomy and influence in Asia are valuable to Washington’s global ambitions.
As the dust settles from the Tianjin summit, one thing is clear: the world is watching as India, China, and the United States navigate a new era of shifting alliances and great-power competition. The road ahead is uncertain, but for now, all eyes are on the next moves of these three giants.
