As the leaves turn in Idaho, a different kind of change is sweeping across the Gem State—one that could hit families right in the wallet. Open enrollment for health insurance kicked off on October 15, 2025, making Idaho the first state in the nation to allow consumers to shop for plans this year. But instead of the usual buzz around new options, Idahoans are facing a sobering reality: premiums are rising fast, and the safety net that once cushioned the blow is about to vanish.
According to The Hill, the culprit behind these skyrocketing costs is the looming expiration of federal tax credits that, since the pandemic, have helped millions afford insurance under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Those enhanced premium tax credits, first established by the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021 and then extended through 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act, are set to expire at the end of this year. Unless Congress acts, the subsidies that once made coverage affordable for many Idaho families will disappear, leading to what some are calling a “subsidy cliff.”
Pat Kelly, executive director of Your Health Idaho—the state’s ACA exchange—spelled out the numbers in an interview with The Hill: “On average, gross premiums, or the overall cost of the premium, have gone up about 10 percent. And the net premium, or the amount the consumer pays after the tax credit has been applied, has increased about 75 percent.” For many, that’s a difference of $100 more per month, or $1,200 a year. And for those on the margins, it’s a game changer.
How bad could it get? Kelly told Scripps News that an Idaho couple earning under 400% of the federal poverty level—less than $84,600 in 2026—who buy a mid-level silver plan could see their annual premiums jump by $18,000. A family of four making over $128,600? They’re looking at a $17,000 hike. “Everyone that receives a tax credit in 2025 will be impacted,” Kelly warned. It’s not just a handful of people feeling the pinch; it’s anyone who relies on those credits to keep their insurance within reach.
What’s more, experts worry these premium spikes will push younger, healthier people to drop their coverage altogether. If that happens, insurers will be left with a sicker pool of enrollees, driving costs even higher for everyone else. “We're certainly concerned any time there is an increase in the uninsured in Idaho,” Kelly said to Scripps News. “How it will impact rates going forward, I think it's too early to tell.”
Idaho’s early start this enrollment season means residents are already receiving renewal notices—many of them with sticker shock. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, highlighted the urgency: “Premiums are being locked in right now. Letters are going out to families announcing shocking price increases this month.” She pointed to Idaho as a warning for the rest of the country, where most state exchanges won’t open until November 1.
Analysts across the board agree: if Congress doesn’t step in to renew the enhanced credits, the average out-of-pocket payments for subsidized enrollees could more than double in 2026. The health policy research group KFF projects a 114% jump for many, and the Urban Institute and Commonwealth Fund estimate millions could lose coverage as a result. Even so, Idaho is expected to be among the least impacted states—Americans in Wyoming, West Virginia, Connecticut, and Illinois are bracing for increases as high as $4,000 a month, according to KFF’s analysis.
But why is Congress dragging its feet? The answer lies in the ongoing government shutdown, now stretching past three weeks. Democrats in Congress have refused to support a government funding extension unless the expiring ACA tax credits are addressed, fearing major price hikes for Americans. Republicans, on the other hand, insist no such discussions can take place until the government reopens. “The government needs to open up and then we’re happy to talk about any other issues the Democrats want to talk about,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told reporters, as cited by Scripps News.
Meanwhile, the White House is pointing fingers at Democrats for holding up government funding over the ACA. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, “I'll just point out the irony in Democrats holding the government and the American public hostage over a health care system that they created. Republicans have always said it's a broken system, yes, but they caused it, and now they want to shut down the government. To fix it, we need to open the government, and then we can have these very important conversations about health care.”
Republicans argue that simply extending the subsidies is a band-aid solution that doesn’t address the root problem: rising medical costs and growing federal dependency. Conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation call the extensions “costly,” and warn they do little to restrain premiums. The American Enterprise Institute has cautioned that the latest proposals could create new “budgetary cliffs,” making future funding battles even more fraught.
Democrats, for their part, believe that the premium increases will only strengthen their negotiating hand. Senator Murray put it bluntly at a news conference, “If Republicans don't want to level with their own constituents about what is at stake, I'm happy to do it. Republicans may well be able to shut down the government, but they cannot shut down the debate, and they cannot shut out the voices of families who are facing the harsh reality of their inaction.”
It’s not just a partisan brawl, either. Thirteen House Republicans facing tough reelection fights recently wrote to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), urging swift action on the expiring credits. “Millions of Americans are facing drastic premium increases due to short-sighted Democratic policymaking,” they wrote, before adding that they, too, wouldn’t support any measures until the shutdown ended.
So, what happens next? For Idahoans, the clock is ticking. Open enrollment is underway, and unless Congress acts fast, many could be locked into higher premiums before lawmakers even return to the negotiating table. For the rest of the country, the full impact will become clear when other state exchanges open in November and the December 15 deadline for January coverage looms.
Pat Kelly of Your Health Idaho remains hopeful, despite the gridlock. “We stand ready to move mountains, if needed, to make sure that Idahoans receive all the savings that they're eligible for,” he told Newsmax. But with Congress at an impasse, and families already feeling the squeeze, the stakes have rarely been higher for health care in America.
As Idaho’s experience shows, the battle over health insurance premiums isn’t just about politics in Washington—it’s about real people, real dollars, and the uncertain future of affordable care.
