Hurricane Melissa, a powerful and rare cyclone, is battering the northern Caribbean as it barrels toward Jamaica, threatening catastrophic flooding, landslides, and widespread devastation. As of Sunday morning, October 26, 2025, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Melissa had strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds reaching 145 mph (230 km/h). The storm was centered approximately 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 295 miles (470 km) south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, moving west at 5 mph (7 km/h).
The NHC has forecast that Melissa could reach Category 5 status by Sunday night, making it one of the rarest and most dangerous storms to threaten the region in recent years. The agency warned that the hurricane is expected to make landfall on the southern coast of Jamaica late on Monday or Tuesday morning, bringing with it life-threatening conditions. Residents have been urged to seek shelter immediately, as the storm’s impacts are expected to be severe and long-lasting.
"Seek shelter now," the NHC implored, emphasizing that preparations should be rushed to completion. The agency added, "A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides." The urgency was echoed by Jamie Rhome, the NHC’s deputy director, who stated, "Conditions (in Jamaica) are going to go down rapidly today. Be ready to ride this out for several days."
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 to November 30. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted an above-normal season, anticipating 13 to 18 named storms due to warmer ocean temperatures and stronger monsoon activity around West Africa, where many Atlantic hurricanes originate. Scientists have noted that while it is difficult to link any single weather event directly to climate change, rising sea surface temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture are fueling more frequent and intense hurricanes. As the BBC reported, "Warmer oceans produce more moisture in the air, helping fuel the formation of hurricanes."
Jamaica is bracing for up to 30 inches (76 cm) of rain, with some areas potentially seeing as much as 40 inches (101 cm). The NHC also warned of sea level surges as high as 13 feet (4 meters) above ground, particularly along the southern coast. The potential for flooding exists in every parish, according to Evan Thompson, principal director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. "There is potential (for) flooding in every parish of our country," Thompson said, highlighting the widespread risk.
Authorities in Jamaica have taken drastic measures to prepare for Melissa’s arrival. Both Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston and Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay were closed by Sunday. Local officials ordered mandatory evacuations in the seaside community of Old Harbour Bay in St Catherine parish, a flood-prone area on the southern coast. The decision came after concerns that many residents were not heeding earlier advice to move to safer locations. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness addressed the nation, urging calm but stressing the importance of readiness: "I know that there are many Jamaicans who are anxious, who are very concerned, and rightfully so: you should be concerned. But the best way to address anxiety and any nervousness and concern is to be prepared."
Residents across the island have been told to secure their homes with sandbags and wooden boards and to stock up on essentials. The government of Antigua and Barbuda, along with other Caribbean governments, has relocated visiting students to hotels in Kingston for safety. As of Sunday morning, 52 students from Antigua and Barbuda had checked in, joined by students from other islands, though it remained unclear whether their governments were also sponsoring their stays.
The slow-moving nature of Hurricane Melissa has amplified its destructive potential. Torrential rains and high winds have already begun affecting Jamaica and are expected to persist for days. The NHC cautioned that extensive damage to infrastructure, power and communication outages, and the isolation of communities are likely outcomes. The storm surge is anticipated to be most severe along the southern coast, but the threat of flooding and landslides extends island-wide. The BBC reported that "tropical storm-strength winds and rain were expected well before the hurricane passed over central Jamaica, including Kingston."
Melissa’s impacts are not limited to Jamaica. Warnings are also in effect for parts of Haiti, including Port au Prince, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. The hurricane has already caused deadly landslides in Haiti, with at least three people killed and five others injured due to a collapsed wall, according to Haitian authorities. In the Dominican Republic, a fourth person has died, another remains missing, and nearly 200 homes have been damaged. Floodwaters have isolated more than two dozen communities, knocked out water supply systems affecting over half a million customers, and destroyed critical infrastructure such as bridges in areas like Sainte-Suzanne. The storm has also downed trees and traffic lights, causing further hazards for residents.
As Melissa moves northwest, it is expected to pass near or over Cuba by late Tuesday, October 28, bringing up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain to the region before heading toward the Bahamas by Wednesday. The Bahamas Department of Meteorology has warned that islands in the southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, could experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions early next week. The storm is forecast to weaken slightly to a Category 3 hurricane as it moves past Cuba and into the Atlantic, but officials caution that the difference in impact between a Category 4 and Category 3 hurricane can be negligible, especially in terms of flooding and wind damage.
In Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the human toll continues to mount. Many residents, despite government warnings, are still reluctant to leave their homes, raising fears that the death toll could rise as the storm progresses. The BBC and the Irish News both reported on the tragic loss of life and the widespread disruption caused by the hurricane, underscoring the vulnerability of these nations to extreme weather events.
With the Atlantic hurricane season still underway and the specter of climate change looming large, Hurricane Melissa serves as a stark reminder of the region’s exposure to natural disasters. For now, all eyes remain on Jamaica and its neighbors as they brace for the worst, hoping that preparation and resilience will help them weather the storm.
