Hurricane Erin, the first major Atlantic hurricane of the 2025 season, has left a trail of disruption and concern as it continues its journey through the Atlantic, lashing the Caribbean and threatening the U.S. East Coast with dangerous surf and flooding. What began as a rapidly intensifying storm—jumping from Category 1 to a catastrophic Category 5 in a matter of hours—has since weakened to a Category 3 hurricane, but forecasters warn that the threat is far from over.
According to the Associated Press, Erin peaked at Category 5 status on Saturday, August 16, 2025, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph). By Sunday, August 17, the storm’s intensity had decreased to Category 3, but its maximum winds remained formidable at 125 mph (205 kph). The hurricane’s outer bands battered Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds, causing significant impacts across the region.
While Erin’s winds diminished, its overall size grew. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that hurricane-force winds extended about 25 miles from the storm’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds reached outward up to 205 miles. This expansion in size meant that even as top wind speeds dropped, the storm’s potential for widespread damage increased.
On Sunday, Erin’s center was located about 275 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and 165 miles east of Grand Turk Island in the Turks and Caicos. The storm was moving west-northwest at around 13–14 mph, with its core expected to pass east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas overnight and into Monday. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for these areas, with the southeastern Bahamas also under a Tropical Storm Watch, as reported by FOX 13 and FOX Weather.
Rainfall totals across the region were significant. The NHC forecasted 3 to 6 inches of rain across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with isolated areas seeing up to 8 inches. In Tortola, British Virgin Islands, at least 9 inches of rain were recorded, and more than 2 inches fell in Caguas and Camuy in Puerto Rico and St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. These heavy rains brought the risk of local flooding and mudslides, prompting severe Flash Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in San Juan.
Power outages swept through Puerto Rico, with over 147,000 customers left without electricity on Sunday morning, according to LUMA Energy. The company reported, "The adverse weather has caused multiple interruptions across the island. Our teams continue to work to address each situation as quickly and safely as possible." As the storm moved on, the U.S. Coast Guard allowed all ports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to reopen, signaling a slight easing of immediate danger but not of the ongoing risks.
Travel across the Caribbean was also affected, with more than 20 flights canceled over the weekend. Local officials urged residents to prepare for potentially life-threatening impacts, and some communities braced for mudslides and landslides as the relentless rain continued.
As Erin approached the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, its influence began to spread further. Dangerous ocean swells and rough seas were forecast to impact not only the Caribbean islands but also the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the entire U.S. East Coast. The National Hurricane Center warned that these swells would bring life-threatening rip currents and massive waves, especially as Erin paralleled the coast throughout the week.
North Carolina’s Dare County officials declared a state of emergency and ordered the evacuation of Hatteras Island starting Monday, August 18, in anticipation of heavy surf and high winds. The Outer Banks, a thin stretch of barrier islands jutting into the Atlantic, were especially vulnerable. The National Weather Service cautioned that several days of heavy surf and waves could wash out parts of North Carolina Highway 12, the main connection to the mainland. High Surf Advisories and Coastal Flood Watches were issued for parts of the Outer Banks, including west Carteret and coastal Onslow counties, with large breaking waves between 10 and 15 feet expected.
Erin’s forward motion was forecast to slow before making a gradual turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday, guided by a weakness in the high-pressure system steering it. Forecast models anticipated Erin would remain at least 200 miles offshore from the North Carolina coast but warned that impacts would still be felt. Wave heights between 5 and 10 feet were likely along Florida’s east coast early to mid-week, and the storm was expected to pass between North Carolina and Bermuda, with outer rainbands and rough seas impacting those areas mid to late week.
Despite the storm not making a direct landfall on the U.S. East Coast, the National Hurricane Center emphasized that life-threatening beach conditions and dangerous rip currents would be a significant hazard from Florida to New England. "The powerful hurricane will put a tremendous amount of energy into the ocean, which will be felt along all coastlines from the Caribbean to Canada, including the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast," said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.
Hurricane Erin’s rapid intensification drew attention from scientists, who have increasingly linked such phenomena to climate change. Warmer ocean temperatures, driven by global warming, provide hurricanes with more fuel, allowing them to strengthen more quickly and unleash heavier rainfall. According to the Associated Press, "Scientists have linked the rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Atlantic to climate change. Global warming is causing the atmosphere to hold more water vapor and is spiking ocean temperatures, and warmer waters give hurricanes fuel to unleash more rain and strengthen more quickly."
The storm underwent an eyewall replacement cycle on August 16–17, a process in which the hurricane’s inner core reorganizes, often resulting in temporary weakening followed by potential re-intensification. The NHC noted, "Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye diameter increasing from 5-10 nautical miles to around 40 nautical miles. If the replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the eyewall by tonight. This would likely result in another intensification episode." Forecasters said Erin could regain Category 4 strength as it passed off Florida’s East Coast early in the week.
Residents throughout the Caribbean and along the U.S. East Coast are being urged to stay alert and heed local advisories, as the impacts of Hurricane Erin—ranging from flooding rains and power outages to dangerous surf and rip currents—are expected to persist for several days.
While the worst of Erin may remain offshore, the storm’s broad reach and unpredictable nature serve as a stark reminder of the power and unpredictability of hurricanes in a warming world.
