In what has become one of the most hotly contested by-elections in recent Welsh political history, the Senedd race in Caerphilly has exposed deep divisions over the role of immigration in local and national politics, media impartiality, and the future balance of power in Wales. The televised debate hosted by the BBC on October 15, 2025, at Bedwas Workmen’s Hall brought these tensions to the surface, offering a raw and sometimes emotional snapshot of a community grappling with change, identity, and the rhetoric of national parties.
At the heart of this by-election is a seat left vacant by the sudden death of Labour Member of the Senedd (MS) Hefin David in August. Caerphilly, a Labour stronghold since 1918, now finds itself at a crossroads. With the main Senedd election looming in May 2026, both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK see an opportunity to challenge Labour’s century-long dominance, emboldened by recent polls that show shifting allegiances and growing voter appetite for alternatives.
Yet it was the issue of immigration—remarkably, a policy area not devolved to the Welsh Senedd but reserved for Westminster—that dominated the debate and the campaign. According to BBC reporting, the stand-out moment of the night came when a local mother, attending with her two mixed-race sons, confronted Reform candidate Llŷr Powell. She shared her distress: "I have never felt so unwelcome in my own home town as I do since your party came into Caerphilly. I have to say to my sons please don't go there, please don't do this and quite frankly Mr Powell I blame you for that." Her comments, echoed by her son Cole’s earlier question, challenged Powell to justify why immigration was being presented as a problem in Caerphilly—where the local immigrant population is just 2.9%.
Powell, sticking to his party’s national messaging, responded: "I speak about immigration as a policy..." only to be interrupted by the woman, who asserted, "We’re not policies, you’re talking about human beings." Powell maintained, "It’s a government policy. The level of immigration we’ve got coming in right now to the United Kingdom is too high." When pressed on the local context, he conceded, "That is in the United Kingdom," and admitted that Caerphilly does not set its own immigration policy, acknowledging that the Senedd has no legislative power over the matter.
This exchange, as reported by Left Foot Forward and corroborated by the BBC, underscored the disconnect between national political narratives and local lived experiences. Reform UK’s focus on immigration, despite its lack of relevance to devolved Welsh policymaking, has nonetheless succeeded in making the issue resonate at the local level—a strategy that, according to Wales political editor Gareth Lewis, has put Labour and other parties on the defensive.
Media coverage of the campaign has itself become a focal point. Professor Stephen Cushion of Cardiff University’s School of Journalism, Media and Culture, who led a study on broadcast coverage of the by-election, described the contest as a "litmus test" for both the upcoming 2026 Senedd election and for media impartiality in Wales. According to his research, Labour has received the most coverage across TV, online, and social media, benefiting from what academics call the "incumbency bonus." However, Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, and Reform UK have all received significant attention, with Reform UK in particular gaining ground due to its national polling strength and the high-profile involvement of leader Nigel Farage.
Farage, who campaigned personally in Caerphilly and remains the most favored UK party leader in Wales according to a recent YouGov poll, has managed to set much of the media agenda. Cushion noted, "Farage can not only appeal directly to voters, he can help set the media agenda and ensure the party’s main policy – controlling levels of immigration – is widely discussed even though it’s not a power that is devolved to a future Welsh government." This, he argued, presents a challenge for broadcasters: "How far should they allow this issue to shape the campaign agenda over the coming months given it’s a policy that rests with Westminster?"
The BBC debate itself, broadcast across multiple platforms and featuring six of the eight by-election candidates, was designed to reflect the diversity of political opinion in Caerphilly. The audience of 74 was carefully selected to ensure a broad range of views, and the format included live fact-checking and real-time updates. Still, the debate’s most memorable moment was not a policy exchange between party representatives, but a heartfelt intervention from a member of the public—a reminder, as Lewis observed, that "it took a woman to make everyone stop and pause, after six men spent the best part of an hour shouting over each other."
Beyond immigration, the debate touched on pressing local issues such as NHS services and library closures, as well as the looming challenge of passing the Welsh government’s budget. With Labour’s majority in the Senedd already precarious, a loss in Caerphilly would force the party to seek new alliances to govern—potentially empowering opposition parties and reshaping the balance of power in Cardiff Bay.
Reform UK’s candidate, Llŷr Powell, is no stranger to controversy. He previously worked for Nathan Gill, a former MEP who recently pleaded guilty to multiple counts of bribery. While Powell has refused to disclose the exact dates of his employment with Gill, the association has drawn criticism from opponents. Nonetheless, Reform’s message on immigration, amplified by Farage’s media presence, continues to attract attention and support, particularly among voters concerned about illegal immigration—even if the issue has little direct impact on the area.
For broadcasters, the by-election has raised thorny questions about how to balance impartiality with the need to scrutinize party claims—especially when those claims concern policies outside the remit of the Welsh government. Ofcom’s rules on election coverage require that airtime be allocated according to past performance and current polling, but the prominence of issues like immigration, driven by national party leaders, complicates the picture. As Cushion’s report noted, "Broadcasters will need to decide if this policy – representing less than 0.05% of the Welsh government budget over six years – is something worth prominently covering not just in the remaining days of the by-election campaign, but in the run up to the Senedd election next year."
As Caerphilly prepares to vote on October 23, 2025, the contest stands as a microcosm of wider debates over identity, media responsibility, and the power of political rhetoric. For many residents, the campaign has been a painful reminder of the personal impact of national politics. For the parties, it is a battle not just for a seat, but for the narrative that will shape Wales in the years to come.
