In a week marked by diplomatic wrangling and high-stakes negotiations, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza faces mounting uncertainty as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad openly refuse to disarm under the U.S.-brokered peace plan. The standoff, which pits the militant groups against President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel, has thrown the future of Gaza’s reconstruction and security into question, even as international mediators scramble to keep the peace process alive.
The latest crisis erupted on October 14, 2025, when both Hamas and Islamic Jihad made clear they would not surrender their weapons, defying the central pillar of Trump’s much-touted 20-point peace plan. According to Reuters, Hamas politburo member Mohammed Nazzal was asked directly whether Hamas would give up its arms. His response was unequivocal in its ambiguity: "I can’t answer with a yes or no. Frankly, it depends on the nature of the project. The disarmament project you’re talking about, what does it mean? To whom will the weapons be handed over?" Nazzal’s words left little doubt that Hamas is prepared to keep its arsenal for the foreseeable future.
Further muddying the waters, Nazzal said Hamas would only consider a clear answer on disarmament during phase two of negotiations, with other Palestinian factions like Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine included in the decision-making process. He insisted that the group’s priority was not to rearm for another conflict, but to secure a three-to-five-year truce to rebuild Gaza for civilian life. "The goal is not to prepare for the next war—the goal is that we want a truce in which we rebuild the Gaza Strip because the average years needed to rebuild the Gaza Strip is at least five years," Nazzal told Reuters.
But the prospect of even a temporary peace is complicated by the fact that Hamas intends to remain on the ground, even if a technocratic administration is installed as part of a transition. "This is a transitional phase. In a civil sense, there will be a technocratic administration as I said. On the ground, Hamas will be present," Nazzal added, signaling that the group has no intention of ceding security control in the immediate future.
Islamic Jihad, for its part, has been even more blunt. Deputy Secretary-General Muhammad Al-Hindi told Al Jazeera that disarmament was never discussed in the negotiations, and accused President Trump of conducting a one-sided process. "Hamas and the resistance have not agreed to disarm. On the contrary, they declared before, during, and after the negotiations, that this issue had not been discussed at all," Al-Hindi said, according to a translation by the Middle East Media Research Institute. He went on to declare that the weapons "belong to the Palestinian people, and they will not be surrendered before there is a Palestinian state." His remarks underscore a fundamental disconnect between the U.S.-Israeli vision and the Palestinian factions’ demands.
The Trump administration’s peace plan, announced on October 13, 2025, calls for Hamas’s demilitarization and the return of all hostages as prerequisites for the reconstruction of Gaza. The plan envisions a staged Israeli withdrawal and the transfer of governance to a technocratic Palestinian committee, with oversight from a "board of peace" chaired by Trump himself. The plan offers amnesty to Hamas members but stipulates that the group will have no role in Gaza’s future administration. Yet, as Middle East Eye reported, the plan is vague on timelines and leaves open the possibility of the Palestinian Authority eventually taking over, subject to reforms.
On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office has taken a hard line, insisting that Hamas must comply fully with the agreement. "Hamas is supposed to release all hostages in stage 1. It has not. Hamas knows where the bodies of our hostages are," Netanyahu’s office told Reuters. "Hamas are to be disarmed under this agreement. No ifs, no buts. They are running out of time."
Despite the ceasefire, the situation on the ground remains volatile. Within hours of the truce taking effect on October 13, Hamas executed alleged collaborators in Gaza City. According to Breitbart News and Reuters, masked Hamas gunmen blindfolded and shot men accused of working with Israel, actions Nazzal defended as "exceptional measures" during wartime. Over 30 people labeled as gang members have been killed in a campaign to consolidate Hamas’s power, and the group’s internal security forces continue to sweep Gaza for suspected informants.
Hamas has also come under fire for violating the ceasefire’s terms regarding the return of hostages. On October 15, Israel reacted angrily after forensic testing revealed that a body delivered by Hamas through the Red Cross was not an Israeli hostage, but a dead Palestinian from Gaza. As of October 16, Hamas had returned only 10 of the 28 bodies of hostages, leaving 18 still in its custody. "It is confirmed the body is not of a hostage," said Shosh Bedrosian, a spokesperson for Netanyahu’s office. "Hamas is required to uphold its commitments and return all our hostages. We will not compromise on this."
The international community is watching nervously as the peace process teeters. On October 16, a Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo for talks with Egyptian officials about Gaza’s postwar security and the implementation of the ceasefire, according to Xinhua. Discussions are focused on deploying about 1,000 Palestinian security personnel, trained in Egypt and Jordan, to maintain order in Gaza under Palestinian Authority supervision. The talks also include the sensitive issue of Hamas’s potential withdrawal from Gaza’s security apparatus and the handover of its weapons, as stipulated by the U.S.-backed plan.
Meanwhile, Israel has agreed to reopen the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing on October 19, under European Union monitoring and with a Palestinian Authority team present, allowing patients and travelers to cross in both directions. Saudi broadcaster Al Arabiya has reported that Cairo plans to host a broader Palestinian meeting to discuss forming a joint body to administer Gaza after the war, with separate talks involving delegations from Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Trump, for his part, has not minced words about the consequences of further violations. On October 16, he warned Hamas that disarmament is non-negotiable: "They will disarm, and if they don’t disarm, we will disarm them, and it’ll happen quickly and perhaps violently." The following day, he escalated his ultimatum, stating, "If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them."
For now, both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have made it clear: they will not disarm until Palestinian statehood is achieved, inverting the Trump administration’s framework by demanding political concessions before security guarantees. With both sides entrenched, the fragile peace hangs by a thread, and the coming days will reveal whether diplomacy or force will shape Gaza’s future.
