Guinea-Bissau, a small West African nation with a turbulent political history, headed to the polls on Sunday, November 23, 2025, for what many observers described as a pivotal presidential election. Incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, seeking an unprecedented second consecutive term, faced formidable opposition from Fernando Dias—a political newcomer backed by the influential Revolutionary Party. The election unfolded amid deep polarization, security anxieties, and the notable exclusion of the country’s historic independence party, PAIGC, from the ballot.
According to Reuters, Embalo’s campaign was marked by promises to bring stability, expand infrastructure, and address persistent crises in security and food supply. "I’m going to vote for Umaro Cissoko Embalo so he can lead a crusade against corruption and drug trafficking," said Saico Cande, a tailor in Bissau, echoing the hopes of many who see Embalo as a bulwark against the nation’s criminal networks and chronic instability.
Yet, others were deeply troubled by Embalo’s recent actions. Berta da Goya, a businesswoman, told Reuters she was disturbed by the president’s decision to dissolve parliament following what the government described as a coup attempt in late 2023. "I support Fernando Dias," she said, highlighting expectations that Dias would draw strong support from the Balanta ethnic group, the country’s largest, which traditionally aligns with the Party for Social Renewal.
The stakes in this election could hardly be higher. Guinea-Bissau has suffered at least nine coups or attempted coups since independence from Portugal in 1974, according to Reuters. Embalo himself claims to have survived three such attempts during his tenure. The nation’s semi-presidential system has often been a source of friction, with frequent disputes over the roles of president, prime minister, and parliament. The result has been a cycle of political fragility and institutional paralysis.
The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which led the country’s fight for independence and has long been a dominant political force, was barred from fielding candidates in both the parliamentary and presidential races this year. Authorities cited a late filing of papers as the official reason, but the exclusion has sparked widespread controversy. For the first time, the PAIGC-led PAI-Terra Ranka Coalition, which secured an absolute majority in the 2023 parliamentary elections, urged its supporters to back Dias instead.
As reported by Real News Magazine, the ECOWAS Election Observation Mission, headed by Ambassador Baba Kamara, met with both President Embalo and representatives of Dias ahead of the vote. Both camps pledged to support a peaceful process and respect the outcome, a commitment echoed by other candidates, including former President José Mário Vaz, who ran with the backing of Coalition COLIDE-GB. In total, twelve candidates vied for the presidency.
Ambassador Kamara appealed for calm, urging all candidates and their supporters to demonstrate patriotism, tolerance, and a commitment to non-violence. "The deployment of the election observers was in line with ECOWAS’ strong determination and commitment to accompany the people of Guinea-Bissau on the path to good governance, national progress and development," Kamara stated at the pre-election briefing. He was joined by other ECOWAS officials, including Commissioner Abdel-Fatau Musah, who reminded observers of the unique history of Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde’s armed struggle for independence from Portuguese colonial rule.
ECOWAS deployed 15 medium-term and 120 short-term observers across Guinea-Bissau’s eight regions and 37 sectors, including the capital, Bissau. Their task: to ensure adherence to ECOWAS principles of neutrality and professionalism, and to monitor the integrity of the process. The mission also included a peace Stabilisation Support Mission, ESSMG, underscoring the regional body’s concerns about Guinea-Bissau’s fragile security environment.
Approximately 966,152 voters—about half of the nation’s estimated 2.2 million people—registered to cast ballots at 3,728 polling stations nationwide and abroad, according to the National Electoral Commission (CNE). Security agents and election officials voted in advance on November 20, while campaigning concluded at midnight on November 21. Polls opened at 07:00 GMT and closed at 17:00 GMT on election day, with provisional results expected within 48 hours and the CNE allotted up to ten days to declare the official outcome.
The rules are straightforward: a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to win outright. If no one achieves this majority, the top two contenders will face off in a runoff three weeks later. Most analysts, including those cited by Reuters and Real News Magazine, predicted a close race between Embalo and Dias, making a runoff likely.
The current electoral climate is, in the words of Lucia Bird Ruiz-Benitez de Lugo, director of the Observatory of Illicit Economies in West Africa, "extremely tense, with a very polarised political landscape." She noted that opposition parties enjoy significant and longstanding popular support, but their campaigning efforts have been hampered, resulting in an uneven playing field. The Observatory, a part of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, has tracked Guinea-Bissau’s status as a key transit point for cocaine shipments from South America to Europe—a shadow that looms over the country’s politics and security.
Embalo’s critics have accused him of manufacturing crises to justify crackdowns on opponents, while the president insists he is the only candidate capable of stabilizing the country and steering it toward development. For his part, Dias has positioned himself as a champion of reconciliation, improved basic services, and the exclusion of the military from politics. He has also accused Embalo of plotting to undermine state institutions to consolidate presidential power if re-elected.
Amid these tensions, the ECOWAS mission called on all candidates to "work with their compatriots to consolidate democracy in the country and the region." Observers were reminded to honor the legacy of Amilcar Cabral, the revered leader of Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde’s independence struggle, whose vision for a peaceful and just society still resonates today.
As Guinea-Bissau awaits the results, the nation stands at a crossroads. Will this election mark a turning point toward stability and democratic consolidation, or will it deepen the divisions and uncertainties that have long plagued the country? For now, voters and observers alike are watching closely, hoping that this time, the promise of peace and progress will finally be fulfilled.
