Guinea-Bissau, a small West African nation long plagued by political turmoil, is once again at a crossroads as it heads to the polls on November 23, 2025. Incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, a 53-year-old former army general, is seeking to make history as the first sitting president in three decades to win re-election. Yet, as the campaign barrels toward election day, the country’s deep-seated challenges—coup attempts, economic fragility, and a sidelined opposition—loom large over the process.
Since taking office in 2020, Embaló’s presidency has been anything but uneventful. According to Reuters, his government has reported multiple attempts to overthrow him, including a dramatic 2022 attack that saw hours of gunfire near the cabinet building. More recently, Embaló himself claimed there was an attempt “to subvert the constitutional order” in October 2025, just as campaigning kicked off. Guinea-Bissau’s history is riddled with coups—four successful ones and a string of failed plots since independence in 1974. In a country where leaders have often been ousted or killed, Embaló is only the second since the advent of multiparty politics to complete his term in office.
The stakes are high. Embaló is not only running for a second term as president; voters will also elect 102 members of parliament, after he dissolved the previous assembly in December 2023. The dissolution followed clashes that authorities attributed to coup plotters, and the subsequent legislative elections, originally scheduled for November 2024, were postponed to coincide with the presidential vote. As The Taipei Times notes, about 860,000 voters are eligible to cast ballots in the nation of 2.2 million people.
But the election itself is already controversial. The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), long the country’s dominant political force and the party that led Guinea-Bissau to independence from Portugal, has been barred from participating. Its leader, Domingos Simões Pereira, and the PAIGC-led PAI Terra Ranka coalition were disqualified by the Supreme Court for missing paperwork deadlines, a move opposition figures have decried as “manipulation of the electoral process.” According to Devdiscourse, Pereira, who came second in the disputed 2019 election, has thrown his support behind Fernando Dias, a relatively unknown 47-year-old candidate who now emerges as Embaló’s main challenger.
“The unexpected PAIGC–Dias alliance challenges the regime’s certainty of a swift victory, making a second election round likely,” said Paulin Maurice Toupane, a senior researcher for West Africa at the Institute for Security Studies, in a note cited by Reuters. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held.
Dias, who studied law in Bissau and leads the Party for Social Renewal (PRS)—traditionally backed by the country’s largest ethnic group, the Balanta—has pledged to promote security in the coup-prone nation. He has also warned that Embaló, if re-elected, could greatly enhance presidential powers through a constitutional referendum. “Our parents fought to liberate this country, but the heirs have destroyed everything for personal gain,” lamented Djibril Sanha, a 30-year-old teacher in Bissau, speaking to The Taipei Times. “We don’t want to hear about violence or coups anymore. Enough is enough.”
Other notable candidates include Jose Mario Vaz, 67, who served as president from 2014 to 2020 and was the first to complete a full term since independence. Vaz’s tenure, however, was marred by political infighting and corruption, and he lost the 2019 election in the first round, later supporting Embaló. Critics say Vaz failed to control the rampant corruption and drug trafficking that have long plagued the country. Baciro Dja, a 52-year-old former defense minister and twice prime minister, is also in the race, though his previous presidential bid garnered just over 1 percent of the vote. Joao Bernardo Vieira, 48, nephew of Guinea-Bissau’s assassinated long-serving president, leads the African Party for Freedom and Development of Guinea (PALDG).
Despite the crowded field—12 candidates in total—Embaló is widely considered the favorite. His campaign, marked by energetic tours across the country and his signature red and white keffiyeh, has drawn large crowds. Embaló’s supporters call him “the general,” a nod to his military background, though he left the army in the 1990s. He is also a political scientist specializing in defense and geostrategic affairs, and deputy head of the Madem G-15 movement, which he founded with dissidents from the PAIGC. A father of three, Embaló is Muslim, married to a Christian, and speaks five languages—details that, while personal, shape his image as a unifier in a country rife with ethnic and political divisions.
Yet, the election’s credibility is under scrutiny. With the PAIGC and Pereira barred, many voters and experts fear the outcome may not reflect the true will of the people. Lucia Bird, an expert at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, told The Taipei Times she doubts the elections will bring greater stability, citing Guinea-Bissau’s long history of post-election disputes. “In Guinea-Bissau, problems usually arise after elections,” she said. She also noted that Embaló enjoyed a “strong position” in the race, partly because he could campaign freely while the opposition faced significant limitations, including a lack of resources.
Beyond the political intrigue, Guinea-Bissau’s fundamental problems remain daunting. The country is one of the poorest in the world, with over 40 percent of its citizens living in extreme poverty. Its economy is heavily dependent on cashew exports, a notoriously volatile commodity. Meanwhile, the cocaine trade is booming—a recent civil society report suggests trafficking may be more profitable than ever, further fueling instability. Voters are demanding not just stability, but also better healthcare, education, jobs, and reforms to tackle poverty, corruption, and organized crime.
Embaló’s first term was marked by turbulence: a postponed election, dissolved parliament, and repeated threats to his rule. He initially promised to serve only one term, but earlier this year, he announced his candidacy for a second, claiming it was “for the good of this country.” His 2019 victory was itself hotly contested, with both he and Pereira declaring themselves president before the Supreme Court and the West African regional bloc ECOWAS recognized Embaló after a four-month impasse.
As the nation votes, the absence of its historic opposition party from the ballot marks a turning point. For many, the hope is that the next president—whoever that may be—can finally deliver the stability and progress that have eluded Guinea-Bissau for so long. Whether this election proves to be a genuine step forward or simply another chapter in the country’s turbulent saga remains to be seen.
