As Guinea approaches its much-anticipated presidential election on December 28, 2025, the political landscape in the West African nation is charged with tension, hope, and a fair share of skepticism. The Supreme Court’s recent publication of the final list of candidates has set the stage for a contest that, while historic, is not without controversy. At the center of it all stands Mamady Doumbouya, the country’s junta leader who seized power in 2021 and, against his earlier promises, is now running for the presidency as an independent.
According to Reuters, Doumbouya’s candidacy was made possible by a new constitution, championed by his military-led government and approved by a national referendum in September 2025. This legal shift opened the door for his participation, despite his initial vow not to contest for the nation’s highest office after his takeover. The new constitutional framework also introduced stricter eligibility requirements, effectively sidelining two of Guinea’s most prominent political figures: former President Alpha Conde and former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both are now ineligible to run, due to age and residency clauses embedded in the new rules.
Doumbouya’s decision to submit his candidacy last week—just three weeks ahead of the election—has sparked heated debate across the political spectrum. Many Guineans recall his earlier pledge not to seek power for himself when he overthrew the previous government. Yet, with the constitutional changes in place, the path has been cleared for Doumbouya to potentially remain at the helm for another seven years if he secures victory.
He is not without competition, though the field is notably less formidable than in previous elections. Among the eight other candidates approved by the Supreme Court are Abdoulaye Yero Balde, a former minister of higher education and deputy governor of the central bank, and Faya Millimono, an opposition leader known for his criticism of the junta. Both men have public service credentials, but their national profiles do not compare to the political heavyweights who have been excluded by the new rules.
As reported by Devdiscourse, the exclusion of Alpha Conde and Cellou Dalein Diallo has fueled concerns about the fairness of the upcoming election. Some critics argue that the new constitution was designed to benefit the current regime and diminish the chances of a strong opposition challenge. "We are witnessing a carefully orchestrated process that favors the status quo," said one political analyst interviewed by the outlet. While this sentiment is echoed by many in civil society, supporters of the junta contend that the new rules are necessary to ensure stability and a fresh start for Guinea.
Another notable absence from the ballot is Lansana Kouyate, a former prime minister whose candidacy was rejected by the Supreme Court. According to a statement posted on his party’s Facebook page, Kouyate intends to appeal the decision. His exclusion has added another layer of complexity to an already contentious electoral process. Some observers worry that the disqualification of experienced statesmen may leave voters with limited choices and could undermine confidence in the democratic process.
The road to this election has been anything but smooth. When Doumbouya’s government took power in 2021, it promised a swift transition to civilian rule. In 2022, after negotiations with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the junta proposed a two-year timeline for returning to democratic governance. However, that deadline came and went without an election, raising eyebrows both within Guinea and among international partners. The delay has further eroded trust in the transition process, with some fearing that the military’s grip on power may be more enduring than initially promised.
This December’s vote is therefore seen as a crucial test of Guinea’s commitment to restoring civilian rule. The official narrative, as put forth by the government, is that the election will mark the end of the transition period and the beginning of a new era for the country. Yet, the circumstances surrounding the candidacy approvals and the rushed constitutional changes have left many wondering whether genuine change is on the horizon.
For his part, Doumbouya has maintained a public posture of neutrality and reform. He is running as an independent, a move that some interpret as an attempt to distance himself from the military’s legacy and present himself as a unifying figure. However, his critics point out that the levers of state power remain firmly in his hands, giving him a significant advantage over his rivals. The relatively low profile of the other candidates has only amplified concerns about the competitiveness of the race.
Meanwhile, the international community is watching closely. ECOWAS, which played a key role in negotiating the initial transition plan, has expressed disappointment over the missed deadlines but continues to urge all parties to respect the democratic process. Observers from regional and international organizations are expected to monitor the election, though some have already voiced doubts about the environment in which the vote is taking place.
On the streets of Conakry, Guinea’s capital, opinions are divided. Some citizens express hope that the election will finally bring stability and open the door to economic progress. Others, however, are more cynical, seeing the process as little more than a rubber stamp for the junta’s continued rule. "We want real change, not just a new face for the same system," said one resident, reflecting a sentiment that is increasingly common among Guinea’s youth.
As the campaign period unfolds, attention will focus on the candidates’ ability to articulate clear visions for Guinea’s future. Abdoulaye Yero Balde and Faya Millimono, in particular, will be watched to see if they can galvanize public support and mount a credible challenge to Doumbouya’s dominance. Yet, with the most formidable opposition figures sidelined, the odds appear stacked in favor of the incumbent.
Ultimately, the December 28 election will be a defining moment for Guinea. Whether it ushers in a new era of civilian governance or cements the military’s hold on power remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the stakes could hardly be higher for a country that has seen more than its share of political upheaval in recent years. The world will be watching, and so will the people of Guinea, hoping that this time, the promise of democracy will be fulfilled.
