Guinea stands at a crossroads this December, as the West African nation prepares for a presidential election that many hope will signal a return to civilian rule after years of military dominance. Over the weekend of November 8-9, 2025, Guinea’s Supreme Court released a provisional list of nine candidates for the December 28 election, a move that has sparked both anticipation and controversy across the country and beyond, according to reports from the Associated Press and AFP.
The most prominent name on the list is General Mamadi Doumbouya, the 40-year-old junta leader who seized power in a 2021 coup. Doumbouya, who is running as an independent, submitted his candidacy earlier this month after months of speculation and pressure from his aides. His decision marks a sharp turn from his initial pledge to return power to civilians, made in the immediate aftermath of his toppling of President Alpha Condé, who had ruled Guinea for over a decade.
Doumbouya’s path to the ballot was paved by a constitutional referendum that reshaped the country’s electoral framework, effectively clearing the way for the military leader to run for the highest office. This referendum, while intended to facilitate a transition to democracy, has been criticized by opposition figures and international observers as a maneuver to legitimize and extend military rule under the veneer of civilian governance. As Devdiscourse and AP note, Doumbouya is widely expected to win the election and secure a seven-year term, further consolidating the military’s grip on Guinea’s political system.
The Supreme Court’s decision to approve the candidacies of Doumbouya and eight others, while excluding two major opposition figures—former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba—on “technical grounds,” has cast a shadow over the election’s credibility. Both Kouyaté and Kaba are well-known in Guinean politics and their exclusion has prompted sharp criticism from opposition parties and civil society groups. The court’s ruling allows rejected candidates a 72-hour window to appeal, with the Supreme Court required to make a final decision within 48 hours of receiving any appeals, according to AFP.
The opposition’s concerns are not limited to the candidate list. The election itself comes after a one-year delay from the deadline originally agreed upon with the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This postponement has already led to calls from opposition parties to boycott the country’s legislative body, raising fears that the process may lack the broad-based legitimacy needed for a genuine democratic transition.
“The credibility of the election has already been called into question by the exclusion of two of the country’s biggest opposition parties,” AP reported, echoing the sentiments of many Guineans who worry that the contest will be little more than a formality to rubber-stamp Doumbouya’s continued rule.
The full provisional list of candidates, as reported by AFP and Devdiscourse, includes:
1. Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya – The incumbent junta leader and election’s central figure, running as an independent.
2. Ibrahima Kassory Fofana – Former Prime Minister under Alpha Condé, a seasoned politician with deep administrative experience.
3. Cellou Dalein Diallo – Veteran opposition leader and former Prime Minister, representing the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG).
4. Papa Koly Kouroumah – Candidate for the Party of Hope for National Development (PEDN), representing a younger generation.
5. Mamadou Sylla – Businessman and politician, leader of the Union of Republican Forces (UFR).
6. Abdoulaye Bah – Leader of the Union for the Progress of Guinea (UPG), long involved in opposition politics.
7. Faya Lansana Millimono – Candidate for the Liberal Universalist Party (PLU), known for liberal economic stances.
8. El Hadj Babilé Bah – Religious and community leader, representing the Party for Unity and Development (PUD).
9. Sékou Kourouma – Independent candidate and political outsider.
Notably absent from the list are figures such as former exiled prime minister Selou Dalein Diallo, though some believe the opposition may coalesce around candidates like Faya Lansana Millimono, who is recognized for his vocal criticism of the junta.
The stakes for Guinea’s election are high. The country, one of the poorest in the world, has a history marked by coups and authoritarian regimes. Since 2020, West Africa has experienced a wave of military takeovers, with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso also under military rule. The international community, including ECOWAS and the African Union, has watched Guinea’s political trajectory closely, urging a return to constitutional order and civilian governance.
For many Guineans, the December 28 vote is more than a political contest—it is a test of whether their country can break free from a cycle of coups and strongman rule. The exclusion of major opposition candidates, however, threatens to undermine public confidence in the process. As AFP observed, “the election, long-awaited by both the population and the international community, is expected to end the transitional period that began after Doumbouya ousted President Alpha Condé.” Yet, with the opposition sidelined and the military’s influence undiminished, skepticism abounds as to whether the election will deliver genuine change.
The coming weeks will see appeals lodged, campaigns launched, and political alliances forged or fractured. Whether these efforts will be enough to restore faith in Guinea’s democratic future remains to be seen. What is clear is that the world will be watching closely, hoping for a peaceful and credible process that can finally put Guinea on the path toward lasting stability and civilian rule.
