Guinea-Bissau, a small West African nation with a turbulent political past, is once again at the center of electoral controversy after both leading candidates in its recent presidential election declared victory—days before any official results were made public. The country, which has seen more than its share of coups and political instability since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, now finds itself in a tense standoff as supporters on both sides anxiously await the verdict from election authorities.
The election, held on November 23, 2025, saw incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and his main challenger, Fernando Dias, each claim to have secured more than the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a second-round runoff. According to AFP, both campaigns made their assertions mere hours apart, setting the stage for a charged and uncertain post-election period.
Fernando Dias, the 47-year-old candidate representing the Party for Social Renewal, addressed his supporters in the capital city of Bissau with a message of triumph and change. "We have won the presidential race. We will not have a second round," Dias declared, adding that the people were "tired" and eager for a new direction. His confidence was echoed across social media, where he posted a video reiterating his claim: "This election has been won, it has been won in the first round." (Al Jazeera, AFP)
Not to be outdone, Embalo’s campaign quickly responded. Oscar Barbosa, spokesperson for the president’s team, insisted that Embalo had also cleared the 50 percent bar and would secure a second term, stating, "There won’t be a second round... the president will have a second mandate." Barbosa also called on rivals to avoid making statements that could undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process, a plea for calm in a country with a fragile democratic history. (AFP)
Adding to the drama, the National Electoral Commission remained silent as the dueling victory claims circulated, promising only to announce provisional results on November 27. The Supreme Court will then need to validate the outcome, though the exact timing for that step remains unclear. For now, the nation waits.
The stakes of this election are particularly high, given Guinea-Bissau’s checkered record of political instability. The country has experienced four successful coups since independence—most recently in 2012—and several additional attempts. The last presidential election in 2019 was itself contentious, with Embalo and then-candidate Domingos Simoes Pereira locked in a bitter dispute over the results. Embalo ultimately prevailed, but only after a protracted standoff that left scars on the national psyche. (AFP, Al Jazeera)
Turnout in this year’s vote exceeded 65 percent, a figure that observers say reflects both the public’s investment in the process and the high hopes for a more stable future. Twelve candidates vied for the top job, but the contest quickly narrowed to Embalo and Dias—especially after a controversial decision by the Supreme Court to bar the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) from fielding a candidate. The PAIGC, which led the fight for independence and has long been a dominant force in local politics, was excluded after missing the official application deadline. Its leader, former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira, threw his weight behind Dias, giving the challenger a crucial boost. (Al Jazeera, AFP)
"The PAIGC endorsement was a game-changer," political analyst Maria Gomes told Al Jazeera. "With Pereira’s support, Dias managed to consolidate a significant portion of the opposition vote, especially among those disillusioned with the current administration."
Embalo, 53, is a former army general who previously served as prime minister between 2016 and 2018. He is seeking to become Guinea-Bissau’s first president in three decades to win a second term. His campaign has emphasized stability and continuity, but critics argue that his tenure has instead deepened divisions. Notably, Embalo dissolved parliament in December 2023 after opposition parties gained control in the 2019 and 2023 legislative elections. The legislature has not sat since, a move that opposition leaders say undermines democratic governance. They also contend that Embalo’s mandate should have ended earlier in 2025, but the Supreme Court ruled that his term would extend until early September. The election was subsequently delayed until November, further fueling tensions. (Al Jazeera)
Despite these challenges, the voting process itself was largely peaceful. More than 200 international observers, including representatives from ECOWAS (the West African regional bloc), the African Union, and the community of Portuguese-speaking countries, were on hand to monitor proceedings. Issufu Baba Braimah Kamara, head of the ECOWAS observation mission, praised the conduct of the vote, saying, "We commend the peaceful conduct of the vote from the start to the end of the process." However, he also urged all parties to refrain from "the announcement of uncertified results" and called on supporters to be patient while the official count was underway. (AFP)
The underlying issues at play in this election go far beyond personal rivalries. Guinea-Bissau remains one of the world’s poorest countries, with half its population living in poverty, according to the World Bank. Political instability has stymied development and made it difficult for the government to provide basic services. Many voters see this election as a chance to break the cycle of coups and contested mandates that have held the nation back for decades.
Yet, the exclusion of the PAIGC has raised questions about the fairness of the process. The party’s absence from the ballot is unprecedented, and some observers worry that it could undermine the legitimacy of the eventual winner. "If a major political force is left out, it’s hard for people to see the result as truly representative," said one local civil society leader, who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity.
As the nation waits for the National Electoral Commission’s announcement, there is a palpable sense of anxiety in Bissau and beyond. The memory of past upheavals looms large, and many are hoping that this time, Guinea-Bissau can chart a new course—one defined not by disputed results and political brinksmanship, but by consensus and progress.
Whatever the outcome, the coming days will be crucial. The eyes of the region, and indeed the world, are fixed on Guinea-Bissau as it stands at yet another crossroads in its long and often troubled journey toward democracy.
