Campaign season in Guinea-Bissau has erupted into high drama, marked by the absence of its main opposition and the arrest of senior military officers accused of plotting a coup. As the West African nation prepares for both presidential and parliamentary elections on November 23, 2025, concerns over stability, democracy, and the rule of law have come sharply into focus.
The week leading up to the official start of campaigning was anything but quiet. On Friday, November 1, Guinea-Bissau’s armed forces announced they had thwarted an attempt to "subvert the constitutional order" and arrested several senior military officers. According to the army’s deputy chief of staff, General Mamadu Ture, the foiled attempt was "aimed to disrupt the electoral process," but he declined to provide specifics on the number of officers arrested or the details of their plot (AFP).
Among those detained is Brigadier General Daba Na Walna, director of a military training school located about 30 kilometers from the capital, Bissau. The alleged coup attempt, led by Na Walna and supported by other generals and senior officers, sent ripples of anxiety through a country already on edge. The armed forces General Staff issued a somber statement: "This sad episode, which involves some general and senior officers of our Armed Forces, jeopardizes the peace and stability so desired for socio-economic development and the attraction of foreign investment" (AP).
What makes this episode even more striking is its timing. The arrests were announced just one day before the official launch of election campaigning. The incident is the second known coup attempt against President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who has been at the center of controversy since he took office in 2020. Embaló, originally elected in December 2019 for a five-year term, had previously stated he would only serve one term. Yet, political tensions have simmered as he postponed the election date to November 2025, sparking accusations from rivals of clinging to power beyond his mandate (Reuters, AP).
The country’s Supreme Court ruled that Embaló’s term should run until September 4, 2025, despite opposition claims that it ended on February 27. Embaló, however, set the election date for November 30, further fueling disputes. The opposition has refused to recognize him as president, with tensions boiling over to the point that a West African regional bloc mission sent to mediate the crisis in March 2025 abruptly left after what it described as threats of expulsion from Embaló’s administration (AP).
With the political landscape already fraught, the disqualification of the main opposition has all but guaranteed a lopsided contest. For the first time in Guinea-Bissau’s history, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC)—the party that led the country to independence from Portugal in 1974—will not appear on the ballot. Nor will the Pai Terra Ranka coalition, which includes around ten political parties and is led by Embaló’s chief rival, Domingos Simões Pereira. Both were struck from the final list of parties and candidates by the Supreme Court in October 2025 for filing their applications too late (Reuters).
Pereira, who narrowly lost to Embaló in the 2019 presidential election and fiercely contested the results, was also disqualified. The absence of these major players has led some observers to declare the outcome a foregone conclusion. "With serious opponents eliminated from the competition, Embaló’s victory is a foregone conclusion," lawyer and political activist Fransual Dias told AFP.
Nonetheless, the stakes remain high. Guinea-Bissau’s roughly 860,000 registered voters will choose between 12 presidential candidates, including Embaló and former president José Mário Vaz. Fourteen parties—among them the No Kumpu Guine platform, a coalition backing Embaló—will vie for the 102 seats in parliament. The election is being closely watched, not only for its outcome but also for what it signals about the country’s commitment to democratic norms amid a climate of uncertainty.
Guinea-Bissau’s history is riddled with political instability. Since gaining independence in 1974, the country has experienced four coups, the most recent in 2012, and a string of attempted coups. The military has long played an outsized role in politics, and the current situation does little to dispel concerns about its continued influence. After a cabinet meeting on October 30, President Embaló warned that "no disorder will be tolerated" during the campaign period and emphasized the government’s commitment to maintaining order and protecting all candidates (AFP).
Efforts to stabilize Guinea-Bissau’s democracy since 2014 have yielded only modest progress. In 2022, an assault on the presidential palace, which Embaló described as an attempted coup, resulted in several deaths—a stark reminder of just how fragile the country’s political stability remains (AFP). The recent arrests of military officers have only heightened anxieties, both domestically and across the West African region, where a wave of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea has sparked fears of a broader democratic backslide.
The exact fate of the alleged coup plotters remains unclear, with authorities providing few details about how many were arrested or what consequences they might face. The secrecy surrounding the incident has only added to the speculation and uncertainty hovering over the election. Meanwhile, the government has sought to project confidence, with Embaló’s administration insisting that all necessary measures have been taken to ensure a peaceful and orderly election.
International observers are watching closely. Guinea-Bissau’s ability to hold credible elections in the face of such challenges will be seen as a test of its democratic institutions and a bellwether for the region. The disqualification of the main opposition, the unresolved controversy over Embaló’s term, and the shadow of military intervention all underscore the delicate balance the country must strike to avoid slipping back into instability.
As Guinea-Bissau’s campaign season gets underway, voters are left to navigate a political landscape shaped by old rivalries, new uncertainties, and the ever-present specter of military influence. Whether the coming weeks will bring the stability so many in the country desire—or simply more of the same turmoil—remains to be seen. For now, the nation stands at a crossroads, with its democratic future hanging in the balance.
