Gold Rally Shatters Records As 2026 Dawns

Gold, the world’s oldest safe-haven asset, has just wrapped up a year for the record books—and the story isn’t over yet. In 2025, gold surged dramatically, leaving traditional stock market returns in the dust and luring investors of all stripes, especially older ones, to reconsider its place in their retirement portfolios. But as 2026 dawns, the big question looms: can gold keep climbing, or is the rally running out of steam?

According to Investing.com, the precious metal soared past $5,500 per ounce in late 2025, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The rally hasn’t just been about headline risk, though. Central banks continued their elevated buying spree, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted substantial inflows as investors sought refuge from market volatility and global uncertainty. For retirees and near-retirees, who can’t easily recover from big portfolio setbacks, the calculus around gold is especially nuanced. After all, unlike dividend-paying stocks or interest-bearing bonds, gold doesn’t generate income—a key consideration for those funding daily expenses in retirement.

Deutsche Bank recently made headlines by resetting its gold price target to $6,000 an ounce, a nearly 14% jump from the late January 2026 spot price of $5,267, according to TheStreet. The bank’s bullish outlook isn’t about short-term shocks or speculative fever. Instead, it’s rooted in what analyst Michael Hsueh calls “structural forces” that are reshaping the gold market. These include reserve managers lowering their exposure to foreign asset freezing risks (a lesson learned after hundreds of billions in Russian sovereign assets were frozen in 2022), investors seeking more non-dollar and real assets, mounting government debt, and persistently higher geopolitical risk.

Gold’s performance has been nothing short of eye-popping. By GoldPrice.org data cited in TheStreet, the metal gained 66.5% in 2025 alone, rising from $2,606.72 at the end of 2024 to $4,339.65 by year’s end. Over three years, it’s up 173.1%, and over a decade, a staggering 372.3%. Those numbers have prompted not just Deutsche Bank, but also Goldman Sachs, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi to issue bullish price forecasts for 2026, with targets ranging from $4,800 to $5,400 per ounce.

But what’s driving this seemingly unstoppable rally? For one, central banks have been relentless buyers. The World Gold Council notes that central banks added a remarkable 1,045 tonnes of gold in 2024, after similar figures in 2023 and 2022. China’s official gold holdings climbed to a record 2,304 tonnes by the end of the third quarter of 2025, with the People’s Bank of China adding gold every month last year. Global reserves rose by another 45 tonnes in November 2025 alone.

The trend isn’t limited to central banks. Investment flows have turned decisively supportive, with gold ETFs adding about 16 million ounces in 2025, and speculative positioning on COMEX becoming increasingly bullish as net long exposure surged into year-end. As Investing.com puts it, “recent price strength has been reinforced by a weaker dollar and rising global political risk, even as rate expectations have turned more hawkish than late last year.”

Monetary policy is another key piece of the puzzle. SBG Securities analyst Adrian Hammond told Investing.com that markets are currently pricing in two U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, but three cuts could push gold to $7,000 per ounce by year-end. A more dovish Federal Reserve could send the price as high as $10,000, Hammond suggests, though he warns that an overly optimistic market could “come back to sting gold if it overshoots,” especially if policy remains tighter than investors expect. Still, inflation remains structurally supportive for bullion over the longer term, which should limit any meaningful pullback.

For older investors, these dynamics present both opportunity and risk. As Bankrate reports, most financial professionals advise keeping precious metals to 5% to 10% of a portfolio for diversification benefits. Gold works best as a stabilizer—hedging against inflation, currency weakness, and market stress—but it shouldn’t be expected to deliver consistent income or replace stocks and bonds. Liquidity is crucial, especially in retirement, so widely recognized coins and bars are generally preferred over obscure or illiquid products.

There are also practical considerations. Physical gold involves storage costs and, often, higher taxes than other investments—factors that can eat into returns if not planned for upfront. “Understanding these frictions before adding more exposure can prevent unpleasant surprises later,” Bankrate cautions. And while gold’s recent run might tempt some to chase momentum, retirees are urged to rebalance instead of doubling down. If gold continues to rise, it may quietly become a much larger chunk of a portfolio than intended, so periodic trimming and reallocating to other assets can help lock in gains and keep risk in check.

On the flip side, overconcentration in gold can leave portfolios vulnerable if equities or income-producing assets regain strength. Leveraged gold funds and complex derivatives, which can magnify both gains and losses, are rarely appropriate for those prioritizing capital preservation. And since gold doesn’t pay dividends or interest, relying too heavily on it can force retirees to sell assets during unfavorable market conditions just to fund daily expenses.

What about the risks of a pullback? While short-term corrections are always possible—especially if geopolitical tensions ease or if monetary policy remains tighter for longer—the broader consensus among analysts is that the structural case for gold remains intact. The U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves fell to 56.32% in October 2025, down from 57.79% the previous quarter, according to IMF data. Even modest shifts in global currency reserves can reallocate hundreds of billions of dollars into gold, a non-liability asset.

Debt, too, is an ever-present factor. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has called the rising U.S. national debt “not sustainable,” with federal debt held by the public now at 100% of GDP and total global debt at $251 trillion—an eye-watering 235% of global GDP. For reserve managers and investors alike, these figures underscore the appeal of gold as a store of value in an era of fiscal uncertainty.

So, will gold keep climbing in 2026? No one knows for sure. The consensus among experts is that the metal’s rally is driven by a potent mix of structural forces—central bank buying, de-dollarization, debt concerns, and geopolitical risk—that aren’t going away anytime soon. For older investors and retirees, the best approach may be to treat gold as a deliberate, measured component of a broader portfolio, rather than a magic bullet or a source of guaranteed safety.

In a world where uncertainty seems to be the only constant, gold’s enduring allure remains as strong as ever—though it pays to remember that even the safest havens come with their own risks and rewards.