Gold, long regarded as a bedrock of financial stability, has been thrust into the center of global trade turbulence after the United States imposed sweeping tariffs on Swiss gold bars. The move, which blindsided much of the bullion industry, has triggered record price surges, exposed deep fissures in global supply chains, and left traders, investors, and entire economies scrambling to adapt.
On July 31, 2025, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency issued a ruling that reclassified one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars—formats favored by the world’s largest gold futures market, New York’s Comex—under a tariff code subject to duties. This decision, as reported by Financial Times, upended decades of convention and contradicted industry expectations that such bars would remain exempt from trade levies. The shock was immediate: within days, U.S. gold futures soared to an unprecedented $3,534 per troy ounce, a leap that stunned even seasoned market watchers.
According to deVere Group, a global financial advisory giant, the ruling has transformed one of the world’s most stable financial markets into what its chief executive, Nigel Green, called a “policy-driven minefield.” Green added, “What we’ve seen today isn’t just a price spike, it’s pure tariff mania. Futures surging into uncharted territory because one customs ruling turned the global gold plumbing upside down. This is what happens when political theatre trumps market logic.”
The tariffs are part of a broader set of measures targeting Swiss imports. As The Strait Times and Business Today outlined, the Trump administration imposed a sweeping 39% duty on all Swiss products effective August 7, 2025. The rationale? The White House pointed to a $48 billion trade deficit with Switzerland, arguing that Swiss firms were “taking advantage” of the U.S. The 39% tariff is the highest imposed on any developed country, far outpacing the European Union’s 15% rate.
For Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refiner—processing about 70% of the planet’s market—the consequences are staggering. Swiss gold exports to the U.S. totaled around $61.5 billion in the twelve months ending June 2025. With the new tariffs, these exports now face an additional $24 billion in charges, a blow that Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter described as creating an “extraordinarily difficult situation” for companies dependent on U.S. trade. Despite these headwinds, Switzerland has signaled its intent to maintain procurement agreements with the U.S., including major defense contracts, but has also called for urgent discussions to address the punitive tariff rate.
The impact reverberates far beyond Switzerland’s borders. The global bullion trade is typically triangular: large gold bars shuttle between London and New York, with Switzerland acting as a key intermediary where bars are recast to suit different markets. London prefers the 400-troy-ounce bar—roughly the size of a brick—while New York’s Comex market favors the kilo bar, comparable in size to a smartphone. The new U.S. tariffs specifically target these kilo bars, threatening to divert trade away from New York and toward London, but only if gold can be recast and paperwork meticulously managed to meet origin requirements.
This regulatory twist has already created a dramatic pricing split. As deVere Group and Reuters noted, while London spot prices have remained relatively steady, U.S. futures have surged, commanding a premium of more than $100 per ounce. The gap is straining the role of the Comex exchange as the global hedging benchmark, and could fracture the market into two distinct pools: tariff-free gold and tariff-hit Swiss bars, each trading at sharply different prices. For an asset prized for its fungibility and universal valuation, this is an extraordinary development.
Industry voices have been quick to warn of broader consequences. Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders of Precious Metals, told Financial Times, “The prevailing view was that precious metals remelted by Swiss refineries and exported to the US could be shipped tariff-free.” Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader and managing director at JPMorgan Chase & Co., echoed this sentiment: “Gold is moved back and forth between central banks and reserves around the world. We never ever thought that it would be hit by a tariff.”
Analysts at UBS have warned that tariffs on large gold bars could “spark disruption in funding markets, as the higher costs prompt a mass closeout of short exchange-for-physical (EFP) positions.” Brian Lan, managing director at GoldSilver Central in Singapore, told Reuters, “The tariffs on gold bars will create a dislocation or rather some issues in terms of settlement by big banks.”
The impact isn’t limited to the U.S. and Switzerland. In India, where gold is both a cultural mainstay and a key investment, the tariffs are expected to drive up prices ahead of the festive and wedding seasons. Business Today reported that Indian buyers are already facing higher costs, with the price of 24-karat gold reaching Rs 1.02 lakh per 10 grammes. Jewellers have noted reduced demand and a shift among investors toward sovereign gold bonds and ETFs to avoid high physical premiums.
All this comes on top of an already heated gold market. Since late 2024, gold prices have surged nearly 30%, fueled by inflation fears, swelling government debt, and a relentless hunt for safe-haven assets. The latest rally, however, is being driven not by fundamentals, but by policy whiplash—a point underscored by Nigel Green of deVere Group, who argued, “Tariffs are blunt-force tools dressed up as strategy. They don’t fix structural problems; they create new ones. The idea that you can tax your way to a stronger market is as outdated as it is dangerous.”
The wider lesson, experts say, is that gold’s long-standing exemption from trade duties wasn’t a loophole, but a recognition of its central role in reserves, settlements, and hedging. The sudden imposition of tariffs raises urgent questions about what asset could be targeted next, and whether trust in the global financial system might be undermined. As Nigel Green put it, “When policy overrides market logic, everyone pays. Today, the cost is not just measured in dollars per ounce, it’s in the erosion of trust that keeps markets functioning.”
As the dust settles, the world is left watching to see whether this shock to the gold market is an isolated incident or a harbinger of further upheaval in the global trading system. For now, gold’s record-breaking run is a stark reminder of the unpredictable consequences of political decisions in an interconnected world.
