As the world barrels toward the annual United Nations climate conference in Belém, Brazil this November, a new warning bell is ringing: global fossil fuel production plans are wildly out of sync with the climate promises made under the Paris Agreement. And with recent political shifts in the United States, the gap between rhetoric and reality seems to be widening, not shrinking.
According to the 2025 Production Gap Report, led by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and reported by NPR, the world’s top 20 polluters—including China, the United States, and India—are on track to produce more than twice the amount of coal, oil, and natural gas in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). That threshold, enshrined in the Paris Agreement nearly a decade ago, is considered by scientists as the line between dangerous and catastrophic climate change.
"In particular, the near-term gap has increased with projected 2030 production exceeding levels consistent with 1.5 degrees [Celsius] by more than 120%, up from 110% in 2023," Derik Broekhoff, a senior scientist at SEI and co-author of the report, explained during a call with reporters. That’s not just a minor slip—it’s a lurch in the wrong direction.
China, which accounts for over half of global coal production, is driving much of this increase. The new report reveals that China now plans to reduce coal production more slowly through 2030 than previously projected. Coal, as climate scientists and activists repeatedly note, is the dirtiest fossil fuel in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.
“The reality is stark,” Melanie Robinson, global climate director at the World Resources Institute, said during a recent presentation. She pointed out that at the 2023 UN climate meeting in Dubai, countries didn’t just make a wish list—they agreed to a to-do list: move away from fossil fuels, triple renewables, double energy efficiency, end deforestation, and cut transportation pollution. “Countries pledged to it in Dubai, so now it is time to deliver,” Robinson urged.
But as the world’s biggest economies double down on fossil fuel production, the political winds in Washington, D.C. are shifting as well. The latest SEI report is based on data collected during President Biden’s administration, which prioritized climate action and clean energy. However, it doesn’t account for the policies now being rolled out by President Trump’s new administration—policies that are aimed squarely at boosting U.S. fossil fuel production and limiting cleaner sources of electricity like wind and solar.
Trump has already begun the process of pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, echoing his first term in office. His administration has proposed repealing climate pollution limits on fossil fuel power plants, reversing a 2009 finding that climate pollution harms people, and eliminating climate pollution limits on vehicles. In March, Lee Zeldin, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency administrator, announced rollbacks to climate plans, declaring, “We are driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion to drive down cost of living for American families, unleash American energy, bring auto jobs back to the U.S. and more.”
These moves have not gone unnoticed internationally. As reported by Mining.com and the Financial Times, the Trump administration is now pressing the World Bank to resume financing oil and gas projects—a direct reversal of the institution’s 2019 policy to halt new fossil fuel investments. The push extends to other development banks, signaling a broader retreat from climate-focused lending since Trump’s return to the White House in 2025. North American banks and asset managers have begun pulling out of net-zero alliances, further underscoring the shift.
The administration’s argument? Energy security, with a heavy emphasis on upstream gas development and financing projects in developing countries. It’s a move that, critics warn, could undermine global efforts to curb rising emissions—especially as emissions are climbing fastest in developing economies, even as industrialized nations remain the largest historical polluters.
The numbers are staggering. A 2020 report by German NGO Urgewald found the World Bank had channeled more than $12 billion into fossil fuel ventures since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, including $10.5 billion in new loans, guarantees, and equity. The bank formally ended financing for new upstream oil and gas projects in 2019, allowing only narrow exemptions for gas. In 2023, the World Bank pledged to allocate 45% of annual financing to climate-related projects by 2025.
But the need for climate finance remains immense. Economists estimate developing economies will require $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to tackle the climate crisis. Development banks are expected to play a pivotal role in mobilizing that capital. Earlier this month, the European Investment Bank reported that climate finance from development banks had more than doubled in five years, reaching $85 billion in 2024.
Meanwhile, 2024 was officially the warmest year on record—a sobering reminder that the planet isn’t waiting for political consensus. As Neil Grant, an analyst at Climate Analytics and co-author of the SEI report, told NPR, “The level of impact that the Trump administration is able to have on global climate is still an open question.” Grant added, “We saw in 2016 to 2020 that Trump tried to kill climate action and tried to kill the Paris Agreement. He hasn’t succeeded. I’m confident that he won’t succeed again.”
For now, most countries are sticking with their Paris commitments, even as the Production Gap Report shows they’re not on track to meet them. The authors warn that achieving the 1.5-degree goal now will require an even steeper decline in fossil fuel production and use in the coming years—a tall order, especially as the world’s largest emitters appear to be heading in the opposite direction.
So, as delegates prepare to gather in Brazil for the next round of climate negotiations, the stakes have never been higher. Will the world’s biggest economies double down on fossil fuels, or will they find the political will to deliver on their climate promises? The answer, it seems, will shape not only the outcome of the Paris Agreement but the very future of the planet.
