Germany, a country long celebrated for its beer culture and export-driven economy, is facing a double whammy in 2025. Beer sales at home have hit record lows, even as the nation’s export engine sputters under the weight of global trade tensions and shifting alliances. The numbers paint a sobering picture, and the mood among brewers, exporters, and policymakers is growing increasingly anxious.
Let’s start with beer, that most German of beverages. Oktoberfest, the world-famous festival that draws millions to Munich each fall, has always been a symbol of Germany’s enduring love affair with beer. But beneath the revelry, the statistics tell a different story. According to The Economist, beer sales in Germany during the first half of 2025 dropped to about 3.9 billion liters—a 6.3% plunge from the previous year and the lowest volume recorded since 1993. Domestic sales fell 6.1% to 3.2 billion liters, while exports dropped 7.1% over the same period.
This isn’t just a blip. Average beer consumption per person has slipped below 90 liters, down from 112 liters back in 2005, and Germany now ranks only eighth worldwide in per capita beer consumption. That’s a startling decline for a country that once led the world in this metric, with only the Czech Republic occasionally challenging its supremacy. The shift is particularly noticeable in hospitality venues—hotels, restaurants, and pubs—where beer sales have tumbled, echoing the pandemic-era downturns of 2020.
What’s behind this change? Analysts point to a mix of factors: an aging population, growing health consciousness, and changing tastes among younger Germans, many of whom are simply drinking less alcohol. “There is still a basic preference for beer, but now there is no longer a desire to drink up to three or four glasses,” Falker Kuhl, head of Germany’s Beltins Brewery, told The Economist. The result is a shrinking market, even as the cultural affinity for beer endures.
One trend stands out amid the gloom: the rise of non-alcoholic beer. In 2025, 9% of all beer sold in Germany is alcohol-free, and demand is rising steadily. Munich even saw the opening of an open-air pub last year that serves only non-alcoholic brews—a development that would have seemed unthinkable just a decade ago. Still, this shift hasn’t been enough to save struggling breweries. Over the past five years, about 100 German breweries have closed their doors, and more closures are expected as the industry faces headwinds from both changing consumer habits and a tougher export environment.
Speaking of exports, Germany’s broader economic engine is also showing signs of strain. The country’s vaunted export sector, long the envy of Europe, is reeling from new tariffs and shifting trade dynamics. Preliminary data from the German statistics office, as reported by Reuters, show that in the first half of 2025, German imports and exports with the United States totaled about 125 billion euros ($145 billion), while trade with China was close behind at 122.8 billion euros.
The U.S. managed to hold onto its spot as Germany’s largest trading partner—but only just. “Although the U.S. was able to defend its position as Germany’s most important trading partner, the lead over German trade with China is razor-thin,” said Vincent Stamer, economist at Commerzbank. This comes after the U.S. overtook China in 2024, ending China’s eight-year reign as Germany’s top partner. The tables began to turn again in 2025, however, following Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the imposition of new tariffs. The EU’s trade deal with the U.S., inked in July, set tariffs at 15% for most products.
The impact was immediate. German exports to the U.S. fell 3.9% to 77.6 billion euros in the first half of the year, compared to the same period in 2024. Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, warned, “As the year progresses, losses in German exports to the U.S. are likely to continue and even intensify.” Commerzbank predicts the new tariffs could slow German exports to the U.S. by as much as 20% to 25% over the next two years. If that happens, China is likely to reclaim its crown as Germany’s top trading partner before the year is out, Stamer noted.
But the China story is complicated, too. Imports from China surged 10.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 81.4 billion euros. “Apparently, German companies and consumers find it difficult to replace Chinese goods,” Stamer observed. Analysts suggest that China may be redirecting trade flows from the U.S. to Europe, flooding German and European markets with cheaper goods. The undervaluation of the yuan against the euro only amplifies this effect, making Chinese imports even more attractive price-wise, according to Matthes at the Cologne Institute.
Yet, while imports from China are booming, German exports to China have plummeted—down 14.2% to 41.4 billion euros in the first half of 2025. Exporters are struggling to compete with Chinese manufacturers, who have ramped up domestic production and intensified competition. The result is a record trade deficit for Germany: 40 billion euros, the highest since 2022. “All these developments are damaging the German economy and further exacerbating the industrial crisis,” Matthes told Reuters.
The ripple effects are being felt across sectors. The beer industry, for example, is not immune to the broader export malaise. Tariff wars—first launched under former President Trump and now renewed—have made it harder for German brewers to sell abroad. As The Economist noted, the export environment for beer is likely to deteriorate further, compounding the woes of an industry already under pressure from changing tastes at home.
Meanwhile, the German government is grappling with how to respond. Efforts to diversify trade partners and reduce reliance on China have yet to bear fruit, and the country’s famed Mittelstand—its network of small and medium-sized exporters—is feeling squeezed. There’s little appetite for a return to protectionism, but calls for more robust industrial policy are growing louder.
For ordinary Germans, the changes are visible both at the local pub and in the aisles of the supermarket. Beer menus are shrinking, with more alcohol-free options than ever before. Imported goods from China are everywhere, often at prices that domestic producers struggle to match. The country’s economic identity, built on exports and craftsmanship, is being tested in ways not seen for decades.
As Germany heads into the second half of 2025, the challenges are clear. Beer sales are down, trade deficits are up, and the future looks uncertain. But if history is any guide, this is a country that knows how to adapt—sometimes with a stein in hand, sometimes with a new export strategy. The world will be watching to see how Germany responds to its latest set of trials.
