As the leaves begin to turn in September 2025, the political temperature in the United States is rising fast. With the 2026 midterm elections looming, all eyes are on two gubernatorial races—one in Georgia and the other in New Jersey—that have taken on outsized national significance. The outcomes in these states are being closely watched for signals about the country’s political direction, party momentum, and the evolving strategies of both Democrats and Republicans.
In Georgia, the political landscape shifted dramatically on September 16 when former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan announced his candidacy for governor. This move came just a month after Duncan, previously a Republican, formally switched his party affiliation to Democrat. According to Newsweek, Duncan’s campaign is positioning him as a bulwark against political extremism, a theme he emphasized in his launch statement: “I’m running for governor to put Georgians in the best position to once again love their neighbors and to make Georgia the frontline of democracy and backstop against extremism. We need to push back, and we need to win.”
Duncan’s journey from Republican stalwart—he once served as the state’s lieutenant governor—to Democratic hopeful has been anything but conventional. His departure from the GOP was catalyzed by his criticism of the party’s response to the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol and efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. In an August 5 opinion piece for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Duncan made his party switch official, stating in his campaign video that he was expelled from the Republican Party for not supporting Trump but that he was “leaving anyway.”
The Democratic primary in Georgia is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with a possible runoff on June 16 if no candidate secures a majority. The field is crowded, and Duncan faces an uphill battle. Experts interviewed by Newsweek highlight skepticism among Democratic voters, especially given Duncan’s recent party switch and the presence of strong candidates of color in a state where the Democratic primary electorate is predominantly Black. Dr. Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, explained, “While there are people who have admired and respected his willingness to stand up to his former party, I don’t think that necessarily translates in them being willing to vote for him. Especially when there are other candidates who have names and have track records running for the Democratic nomination.”
Duncan’s challenge is not just about convincing voters of his new political home; he must also establish meaningful coalitions within the Democratic Party. According to Dr. William Hatcher of Augusta University, “While being a former Republican will most likely hurt him with some voters in a Democratic primary, the Democrats have had a history in the state of being more practical than the party in other states when it comes to picking candidates in their primary contests.” Hatcher noted that Duncan’s prior statewide victory could help him build support, particularly in Atlanta’s suburbs where Democratic momentum has been growing.
On the Republican side, the race is heating up as well. Current Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, endorsed by former President Trump, and Attorney General Chris Carr are both vying for the nomination. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the Georgia governor’s race as a “pure toss-up,” underscoring just how competitive the contest is expected to be. No public polling has yet emerged, leaving both parties guessing about their prospects.
Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the gubernatorial race has become a national spectacle. With six weeks to go until Election Day on November 4, 2025, the contest between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill is razor-thin. Both candidates are running on platforms centered on affordability and a promise to shake up the status quo. Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman and two-time gubernatorial candidate, has embraced Trump’s endorsement and the MAGA movement, while Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and current U.S. Representative, is leveraging significant national support.
The stakes in New Jersey are sky-high. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 860,000 registered voters, but recent elections have shown the state is anything but a Democratic lock. Trump’s performance in 2024, when he lost New Jersey by just six points to Vice President Kamala Harris, has emboldened Republicans. The Democratic National Committee recently announced an additional $1.5 million in support for Sherrill, bringing its total investment to $3 million—the most it has ever spent on a New Jersey governor’s race. The Democratic Governors Association has committed another $20 million to her campaign. In contrast, the Republican Governors Association has spent $1.5 million on ads for Ciattarelli, with an additional $1.1 million purchase confirmed on September 16.
Both parties view the New Jersey race as a bellwether for the 2026 midterm congressional elections. “If Democrats were to retain Jersey and win back Virginia, it would be seen as a sign of things to come,” David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, told The New York Times. The significance is not lost on national party leaders. Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, last year’s Democratic vice-presidential nominee, recently told a Democratic National Committee audience, “We know we need Virginia and New Jersey. Get those won. Prepare for the midterms.”
Despite a polling edge for Sherrill, history is not on the Democrats’ side: no party has held New Jersey’s governorship for three consecutive terms since 1961. Benjamin Dworkin, director of Rowan University’s Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship, warned, “This is not a safe seat for Democrats—at all. It’s going to be a very tight race.”
Trump’s influence is unmistakable in both races. In Georgia, his endorsement of Burt Jones is energizing the Republican base, while in New Jersey, his support for Ciattarelli is galvanizing new volunteers and prompting the GOP to campaign in traditionally Democratic urban areas. Janice Fields, a Republican National Committee member from New Jersey, observed, “We have a whole wave of new people wanting to get involved, in part thanks to Trump. We’re going into areas where Republicans don’t necessarily go.”
For Democrats, the challenge is twofold: maintain high turnout among their base and attract enough swing voters to counter Republican gains. In Georgia, Duncan’s ability to appeal to moderate Republicans and independents could be crucial, but as Dr. Chris Grant of Mercer University noted, “Geoff Duncan is the best poised of any of the Democrats to peel off Republican votes, and none of the other Democrats seems likely to stimulate massive turnout. But his pathway in the primary is anything but assured.”
In the coming weeks, candidates in both states will intensify their campaigns, making their case to voters and sharpening their messages. The results in Georgia and New Jersey will not only determine the leadership of these states but also offer a glimpse into the national political mood ahead of the pivotal 2026 midterms.
With the nation’s attention fixed on these battlegrounds, the stakes have rarely felt higher. Every handshake, campaign ad, and debate answer could tip the scales, making this a political season to watch—closely.
