East Africa’s skies, once brimming with promise for greater connectivity and economic growth, are now clouded by a series of geopolitical storms and logistical setbacks that have left airlines and governments scrambling for solutions. The region’s aviation industry, which has long aspired to serve as a bridge across borders, is instead caught in a web of political disputes, security crises, and regulatory hurdles that threaten to ground its ambitions.
Nowhere is this turbulence more visible than in the saga of the Turkish vessel MV Sea World. On July 18, 2025, the ship, loaded with military supplies destined for Somalia’s armed forces, was seized by Puntland’s maritime police near Ras Caseyr. Officials cited “suspicious maneuvering” as the reason, and the vessel was taken to Bosaso port for inspection, with local fishermen reportedly boarding the ship. According to sources cited by The Independent, this incident rapidly escalated into a national political crisis, with Somalia’s federal government accusing Puntland of “piracy.”
The standoff drew in several international actors. Turkey, a key security partner for Mogadishu, dispatched a high-level delegation led by Ambassador Alper Aktaş to negotiate with Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni. Behind the scenes, the United Arab Emirates, a close ally of Puntland, played a mediating role. After nearly two weeks of negotiations and the presentation of what regional officials called “conclusive evidence” of cargo ownership, Puntland released the ship on August 4, 2025, formally handing responsibility for the vessel and its shipment back to Ankara.
But the MV Sea World’s troubles were far from over. Shortly after its release, the ship encountered seasonal monsoon storms off the Horn of Africa, forcing it to divert to Djibouti, where it remains docked as of August 19, 2025. Officials now warn that the vessel could be stranded for several weeks, delaying the arrival of urgently needed equipment for Somalia’s fight against the militant group al-Shabab. The cargo was originally intended for the TURKSOM military base in Mogadishu, Turkey’s largest overseas military installation and the training ground for Somalia’s elite Gorgor commando units.
This episode underscores the dual challenges facing Somalia and its neighbors: the unpredictable hazards of the region’s waters and the persistent political rivalries that complicate international security assistance. The timing is particularly sensitive, coming just months after the United Nations Security Council lifted Somalia’s three-decade-old arms embargo in December 2023—a move designed to strengthen the national army, but one that has stoked fears among federal member states like Puntland about the risks of destabilization from unchecked arms shipments.
Yet the turbulence is not confined to Somalia’s shores. Across the region, airlines are feeling the brunt of political disputes and armed conflicts that have turned the simple act of flying into a logistical and financial minefield. In February 2025, Rwanda’s flag carrier RwandAir was banned from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) airspace amid the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC. This forced RwandAir to suspend flights to Abuja, Brazzaville, and Cotonou—routes vital for its survival in an industry where profit margins are razor-thin. RwandAir CEO Yvonne Makolo, speaking at the 13th Aviation Stakeholders Convention in Kigali, revealed plans to add new routes to Mombasa and Zanzibar in an attempt to offset the losses, but the airline must now compete with Uganda Airlines for a limited pool of travelers on these popular tourist routes.
Uganda Airlines, meanwhile, faces its own set of political headwinds. Since its relaunch in 2019, the airline has not been permitted by the Ugandan government to fly to Kigali, a decision rooted in a diplomatic fallout with Rwanda that peaked when Rwanda shut its border to Uganda that same year. This has prevented Uganda Airlines from establishing a codeshare agreement with RwandAir, further fragmenting the region’s aviation market.
The civil war in Sudan has added another layer of complexity. With Sudanese airspace closed, airlines like Kenya Airways (KQ) and Uganda Airlines are forced to take long, circuitous routes for flights to Europe, dramatically increasing fuel costs and jeopardizing the freshness of cargo—especially Kenya’s prized flower exports to Amsterdam’s early-morning auctions. On August 14, 2025, a KQ flight from Nairobi to Amsterdam was forced to detour over Uganda, DRC, Central African Republic, Chad, Niger, and Algeria, a journey that “bleeds millions from the airline’s bottom line,” as reported by The Independent.
Ethiopian Airlines (ET), Africa’s largest and most profitable carrier, has managed to weather some of these storms more effectively. Its ambitious expansion includes the construction of Bishoftu International Airport, a $7.8 billion project that aims to handle over 100 million passengers annually. Despite being less affected by Sudanese airspace closures, ET’s fortunes are closely tied to Ethiopia’s diplomatic relations. The airline recently denied negotiations with Russia to lease aircraft, citing the risk of U.S. sanctions, a stance that highlights the delicate balance required in international aviation.
Political tensions are also simmering between Kenya and Sudan, with President William Ruto’s support for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) straining relations and prompting Sudan to ban all Kenyan imports. For Kenya Airways, Sudanese airspace has historically been a critical corridor for flights to Europe and North Africa, and any further retaliatory measures could deepen financial woes. Tanzania, too, suspended KQ flights to Dar es Salaam in early 2024 over cargo disputes, though the issue was later resolved.
The patchwork of airspace restrictions and diplomatic disputes has opened the door for Gulf carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways to dominate regional connections. Qatar Airways, for example, is negotiating a 49% stake in RwandAir and a 60% stake in Kigali’s Bugesera International Airport, moves aimed at establishing a stronger foothold in the African aviation market.
Uganda Airlines, seeking to improve its management and operational efficiency, recently hired aviation consultant Torkel Waak to assist in the search for a new Head of Flight Operations. However, the airline continues to face scrutiny over its financial performance and governance, with critics pointing to political interference as a major obstacle.
One of the region’s most significant missed opportunities is Uganda’s absence from the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), an African Union initiative designed to lower fares, expand routes, and unlock the continent’s aviation potential. Kenya, Rwanda, DRC, and Ethiopia are members, but effective implementation is hampered by protectionism and rigid visa policies. Donald Kaberuka, former president of the African Development Bank, put it bluntly: “That does not require money, does not require infrastructure; it requires someone to make a decision which allows the aviation market to work.”
The consequences of this fragmentation are felt by travelers, who face prohibitively high ticket prices—up to $615 for a 50-minute roundtrip between Entebbe and Nairobi, with taxes and surcharges accounting for about 60% of the cost. Despite Uganda Airlines breaking KQ’s monopoly on the route, the pricing power remains with KQ due to its extensive onward connections. RwandAir, exploiting Uganda Airlines’ absence on the Entebbe-Kigali route, has charged as much as $1,025 for a 45-minute flight, further illustrating the inefficiencies plaguing East African aviation.
As the region’s airlines and governments navigate these turbulent skies, the promise of seamless, affordable air travel remains tantalizingly out of reach. Only time will tell whether political leaders can muster the will to clear the clouds and let East Africa’s aviation industry soar.
