California Governor Gavin Newsom is stepping into the national spotlight in a way few state leaders have managed in recent years, fueled by a bold redistricting gambit and a growing chorus of Democratic voters eager for new leadership. With the 2028 presidential election still years away, Newsom is already emerging as a leading contender for the Democratic nomination, according to a wave of recent polling and prediction market data. This surge comes as Democrats, currently in the congressional minority and largely locked out of federal power, look to governors like Newsom to spearhead resistance against President Donald Trump’s administration and Republican maneuvering in Congress.
According to a POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey released on August 20, 2025, Newsom now leads former Vice President and California Senator Kamala Harris by a margin of 25% to 19% among the state’s registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary. The same poll found that a striking 75% of registered Democratic voters are “excited” by the prospect of Newsom running, compared to 67% who feel the same about Harris. It’s a significant boost for the California governor, whose profile has grown through his high-profile clashes with the Trump administration and an aggressive campaign to redraw congressional maps in California.
But it’s not just polling that’s putting wind in Newsom’s sails. The prediction market site Kalshi, which tracks the odds of political outcomes based on market activity, reported on August 20 that Newsom’s chances of becoming the 2028 Democratic nominee have climbed sharply to 27%. That’s a notable jump over the last three days and places him ahead of other prominent Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13%), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (9%), and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (5%). As for the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance currently leads the odds for the GOP nomination at 55%.
Newsom’s rise is closely tied to his efforts to counteract Republican-led redistricting moves that threaten to cement GOP control of Congress. Republican states, led by President Trump, have launched mid-decade redistricting campaigns aimed at creating more safe districts for conservatives and disrupting Democratic strongholds. In response, Newsom and other Democratic governors—including Illinois’ JB Pritzker and New York’s Kathy Hochul—have floated their own plans to redraw district lines to balance out what they see as aggressive GOP tactics. Yet, Newsom stands out as the only one of the trio to see a dramatic spike in political fortunes as a result.
“That's the real wild card. He does depend on the voters to affirm these maps he wants to use to counter Trump's Texas and other state pushes,” said David McLennan, a political science professor and director of the Meredith poll, in comments reported by TNND. The stakes are high: California voters will decide in a special November 2025 election whether to sideline the state’s independent redistricting commission in favor of Newsom’s proposed map. If approved, the new map would be in place through the 2030 elections, potentially reshaping the state’s political landscape. If voters reject the proposal, Newsom risks having spent significant political capital on a contentious issue with little to show for it.
Newsom has not shied away from the spotlight, leveraging social media to lampoon President Trump and other Republicans with a barrage of posts that mimic the president’s distinctive style and catchphrases. This online campaign has drawn both attention and backlash, particularly from Trump’s supporters. But for many Democrats, it’s a sign of much-needed fight and visibility at a time when the party is struggling to regain its footing nationally. According to TNND, Democrats recently hit an all-time low in approval ratings and lag behind Republicans in public trust to handle major issues—making the search for a compelling new standard-bearer all the more urgent.
Beyond the redistricting battle, Newsom has positioned himself as a vocal critic of the Trump administration’s hardline immigration policies and has led California into lawsuits challenging the president’s sweeping tariff agenda. These actions have further cemented his reputation as a leading figure in the so-called “resistance” to Trump-era policies, especially with Democrats in Congress unable to influence much legislation outside of must-pass bills that clear the Senate filibuster.
Of course, Newsom’s path to the presidency is far from assured. The governor faces significant challenges, not least of which are California’s persistent homelessness crisis and the state’s soaring cost of living—issues that have drawn criticism from both the right and the left. As McLennan noted, “The question is, depending on how the Democrats structure their calendar for 2028, can Newsom get some early momentum? I don't think you can label Newsom a frontrunner. The California baggage is going to be there, but there's nobody else who's a frontrunner right now, and so that works to his advantage.”
Meanwhile, the field for the 2028 Democratic nomination remains wide open. No candidates have officially declared, and the true campaign season is still years away, with most attention focused on the upcoming 2026 midterms. Yet, some expected contenders have already begun making quiet trips to early voting states, meeting with party officials and grassroots activists to lay the groundwork for future campaigns. Without an incumbent in the White House, the Democratic field is expected to be sprawling, with a diverse array of voices vying for the nomination across the party’s ideological spectrum.
Newsom’s high visibility and willingness to take bold action have set him apart from other potential candidates, at least for now. His redistricting push, in particular, serves as both a rallying point for Democratic voters and a test of his political acumen. If successful, it could provide a template for other blue states to follow and give Newsom a powerful talking point in a national campaign. If it fails, it could leave him vulnerable to criticism from both political opponents and skeptical voters at home.
As the November special election approaches, all eyes will be on California to see whether Newsom’s gamble pays off. For now, though, the governor’s mix of high-profile resistance, strategic risk-taking, and a knack for grabbing headlines has put him firmly in the conversation for 2028—and given Democrats a reason to look west for their next leader.
