French Prime Minister François Bayrou is facing the most perilous week of his brief tenure as he prepares for a make-or-break confidence vote in the National Assembly on Monday, September 8, 2025. The outcome of this vote will not only determine Bayrou’s political fate but also the future of his controversial 2026 budget, which has stirred fierce opposition across the French political spectrum. The stakes are high, and the repercussions could send shockwaves through France’s political institutions, its economy, and even the broader European Union.
Bayrou’s call for an early confidence vote on August 26 was a bold—some say desperate—move. According to Al Jazeera, the prime minister is seeking approval not just for himself, but for a sweeping fiscal plan that aims to rein in France’s ballooning deficit and debt. The numbers are daunting: France’s budget deficit soared to 5.8% of GDP in 2024, amounting to 168.6 billion euros (about $196 billion), well above the EU’s 3% target. Public debt hovers around 114% of GDP, and the deficit has even surpassed 6% according to EUnews, twice the threshold allowed by European rules.
Bayrou’s budget blueprint is anchored in ambitious savings—43.8 billion euros ($51 billion) for 2026, with 80% coming from spending cuts. These include suspending pension indexation to inflation, reducing public sector hiring, and scrapping two public holidays. Greater taxes on high earners are also on the table. This follows President Emmanuel Macron’s deeply unpopular 2023 move to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, a decision that was justified at the time as necessary to keep pension payments from overwhelming the country’s finances.
The political context is no less fraught. Bayrou’s centrist coalition, lacking an outright majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, must rely on support—or at least abstention—from adversaries on both the left and right to pass his budget. But as consultations with party leaders unfolded this week, it became clear that such support was nowhere to be found. As reported by France24 and EUnews, opposition parties holding more than 320 seats have already declared their intent to vote against Bayrou. The National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, holds 123 seats and was unequivocal in its stance.
After a round of talks with Bayrou, Bardella stated, “The miracle did not happen. This meeting won’t change the National Rally’s position.” Standing beside him, Le Pen was even more blunt, saying Bayrou has “chosen to press the button on the ejection seat” and calling for “ultra-fast dissolution” of parliament and snap elections. The Socialists, too, are resolute. Party leader Olivier Faure told French national television, “On 8 September, he will have to go,” adding that the only words he expects from Bayrou are “goodbye.”
Even within Bayrou’s own governing bloc, cracks are widening. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau urged the Republicans to rally behind the prime minister and not “join the arsonists” seeking to bring him down. Yet several conservative MPs have already indicated they will vote against Bayrou, while others, like Laurent Wauquiez, are demanding substantial revisions to the budget before they even consider lending support. The Greens and hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to attend talks, dismissing them as pointless. Independent MPs from the LIOT group, once seen as a potential lifeline, announced that “a clear majority of the group will not vote confidence.”
The financial markets have not taken kindly to the mounting instability. Following Bayrou’s announcement on August 26, France’s 10-year bond yields spiked to 3.5%, surpassing those of Greece—a country long synonymous with debt crises. Shares in major French banks such as BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale dropped by 8 to 10% last week. Davide Oneglia, a European analyst at TS Lombard, told Al Jazeera, “The political situation is causing wider spreads [between France’s borrowing costs and its European peers]. We’re not at a full-blown debt crisis yet, but the fiscal situation is becoming more urgent.”
Adding to the pressure, Moody’s downgraded France’s credit rating to Aa3 in December 2024, aligning with similar moves by S&P and Fitch. Finance Minister Eric Lombard did not mince words, warning that unless France reins in its debt, intervention from the International Monetary Fund—a scenario more common in emerging markets—“is a risk that is in front of us.”
Bayrou has tried to frame the debate as one about the nation’s future, not just his own. “The issue, the question, is not the fate of the prime minister or… even the fate of the government. The question is the fate of France,” he declared. Yet, as the hours tick by, the arithmetic in parliament appears insurmountable. As EUnews reports, “The mathematical certainty emerged after the National Rally (RN), the largest parliamentary group, rebuffed the head of government.” Several left-wing parties didn’t even participate in the consultations. The same hastily cobbled-together centrist coalition that Macron formed at the end of last year is now unraveling, with defections from neo-Gaullist Republicans (LR), the Renaissance alliance, and independents in the LIOT group.
The options before President Macron, who has vowed to stay in office until 2027, are all fraught with risk. Should Bayrou lose the confidence vote—a scenario most commentators now see as inevitable—Macron could appoint a new prime minister, but with little hope of securing parliamentary support. Alternatively, he could dissolve parliament and call early elections, risking an even more fragmented National Assembly. Resignation, as EUnews notes, is not on the table; Macron has categorically ruled it out.
Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally is waiting in the wings, leading in opinion polls with around 30-31% support ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have called for new elections, arguing that only a fresh mandate can resolve the impasse. As Oneglia observed, the Italian elections of 2022 may serve as a useful blueprint: “Meloni’s right-wing populist party quickly became fiscally centrist when they came into power. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar outcome in France in 2027 [if the National Rally were to win]. Until then, I expect the political situation to assume a ‘kicking into the long grass’ mode.”
For now, France finds itself at a crossroads, with Bayrou’s government teetering on the brink and the nation bracing for another bout of political turmoil. The next few days will reveal whether France can find a way out of its current gridlock—or whether the crisis will deepen, with consequences that could ripple far beyond Paris.
