France, long regarded as a pillar of European stability and decisive government, now finds itself at the epicenter of a deepening political crisis that is shaking its institutions, economy, and standing on the world stage. In a dramatic turn, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s first government collapsed after just 14 hours on October 3, 2025, setting a new record for political brevity in the Fifth Republic. This unprecedented event has intensified scrutiny of France’s semi-presidential system and raised urgent questions about the country’s ability to govern itself effectively.
The roots of this crisis stretch back to President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election in 2022, which was quickly followed by parliamentary elections that failed to deliver a clear majority for the presidential camp. According to Project Syndicate, this left Macron in an unenviable position: forced to push through legislation—most notably, the controversial pension reform raising the retirement age from 62 to 64—without majority support, relying on constitutional provisions to bypass the National Assembly. This move, while legal, further eroded trust in political institutions and fueled public anger.
By October 2025, France had cycled through five prime ministers in just three years—Borne, Attal, Barnier, Bayrou, and now Lecornu. The latest government, Lecornu II, was formed on October 12 and only narrowly survived a censure vote on October 16, thanks to a tactical commitment from the Socialist Party not to bring down the government immediately. The cost? The suspension of the very pension reforms meant to stabilize France’s precarious fiscal situation. As Bloomberg reported, this abandonment of crucial reforms was seen by Nobel laureate Philippe Aghion as a “tragedy for France.”
Public confidence in the country’s political institutions has plummeted to historic lows. The February 2025 CEVIPOF Trust Barometer found that just 26% of citizens trust politics, 23% trust the government, and only 24% trust the National Assembly—numbers reminiscent of the turbulent Gilets Jaunes era. More recent data paints an even starker picture: 81% of French people believe the democratic system is not functioning well, over 90% express anger with the political class, and nearly 60% want President Macron to resign. This isn’t just about personalities; it’s about structural dysfunction.
The National Assembly is now divided into three nearly equal blocs: the far right (National Rally, or RN), the center and right (loosely supporting Macron), and the left. While the left and far right might agree on repealing the pension law and taxing the rich, their profound disagreements on identity, security, the environment, and immigration make any coalition between them unthinkable. Meanwhile, the center-right and far right find common ground on security and immigration but are split on economic policy, especially pensions. Internal divisions further complicate matters, with the left split between reformist Socialists and a radical populist fringe, and the centrist camp fractured by tactical differences.
Political parties, it seems, are more focused on positioning themselves for the 2027 presidential election than on forging compromises for the good of the country. As Zaki Laïdi, a professor at Sciences Po, put it in Project Syndicate, “each acts as if it has an absolute majority on its own and refuses to compromise.” This has left France in a state of permanent parliamentary deadlock, unable to pass even basic reforms.
The economic consequences are already being felt. The 2026 budget, submitted on October 14, aims for a deficit target of 4.7% (down from 5.4%), with minimal job cuts and only symbolic taxation. The much-debated ‘Zucman tax’ on billionaire wealth has been shelved, and the ‘Dutreil pact’ on inheritance tax remains untouched—for now. But political instability is sapping investor confidence. The Banque de France now forecasts GDP growth of just 0.7% for 2025, a 0.2 percentage point drop attributed to the ongoing turmoil. Credit rating agencies have responded in kind: Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating from AA to A+ in September, and Standard & Poor’s followed suit in October, both citing fiscal risks and political paralysis.
France’s political crisis is no longer just a domestic affair. As European Pravda reports, the deadlock in the French Parliament since the snap legislative elections of 2024 has undermined France’s traditional role as a reliable engine for the European Union. The country’s inability to pass reforms or offer steady leadership has left its European partners anxious. In capitals from Washington to Berlin, Warsaw to Rome, Paris is increasingly seen as “unpartnerable,” with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni stepping up to lead the EU’s southern flank and Poland and the Baltics taking the initiative on defense planning around Ukraine.
France’s limited material support for Ukraine—less than €8 billion in total allocations compared to Germany’s €22 billion pledge—has further diminished its influence in the so-called “Coalition of the Willing.” As one senior French diplomat told Carnegie Europe, “We used to set the tempo. Now we’re playing catch-up; if we’re lucky enough to be in the room.” The prospect of Marine Le Pen’s far-right RN winning the 2027 presidential election has EU officials in Brussels and beyond on edge. Le Pen has refused to define Russia as an aggressor state and her party consistently opposes France’s arms deliveries to Ukraine. A far-right victory could trigger a strategic rupture in EU policy, weakening the bloc’s eastern posture and emboldening Moscow.
At home, the crisis has exposed the brittleness of the Fifth Republic’s semi-presidential model. Once admired for its resilience, the system now appears rigid and ill-suited to a fragmented political landscape. Macron’s reappointment of Lecornu, a loyalist from his original 2017 team, was intended to restore control but has failed to broaden the governing base. The Socialists, holding the balance of power, have only promised not to censure the government immediately, making Lecornu’s tenure precarious at best.
France’s social model, with its high public spending—€250 of every €1,000 on pensions, €200 on healthcare—remains a point of pride but also a source of financial strain. Yet, as Zaki Laïdi observes, there is no consensus on how to modernize a system that everyone knows is unsustainable in the medium term. Both the left and the National Rally campaign for a return to the previous retirement age, ignoring the mounting risks posed by national debt.
The current crisis is not one of street protests or sudden upheaval, but of institutional paralysis and eroding legitimacy. As Professor Alistair Cole of the Lyon Institute of Political Studies notes, “Today’s crisis is different. It is not primarily a crisis of the streets, but of the institutions themselves.” With the next presidential election still 18 months away, the most likely scenario is a fragile government limping toward 2027, leaving broader questions about France’s political sustainability unanswered.
Whether this moment marks a regime crisis or simply a turbulent phase in the evolution of the Fifth Republic, one thing is clear: France’s ability to recover and adapt will shape not only its own future, but that of Europe as a whole.
