France, long a dominant force in Africa and a pillar of the euro zone, is facing a dramatic series of challenges that are shaking its economic and political foundations. As of September 2025, the reverberations of these crises are being felt not only in Paris, but across the broader euro zone, prompting questions about the future of France’s influence in Africa and its role in the European economy.
For decades, France’s presence in Africa was nearly synonymous with power. Through military bases, economic arrangements like the CFA currency zone, and a web of political ties known as Françafrique, Paris maintained a strong grip on its former colonies. But now, that grip is loosening at a pace few in the French establishment seemed prepared for. According to business a.m., six African countries—Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, the Central African Republic, and Chad—are at various stages of disengaging from France. The trend is especially pronounced in West Africa, but Central Africa is not immune.
The timeline of France’s retreat is striking. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled French troops in 2022 and 2023 after their military juntas severed defense agreements with Paris and pivoted toward new alliances, notably with Russia and the Wagner paramilitary group. The Central African Republic saw the last French troops leave in 2022. Chad began its withdrawal at the end of 2024, following a dramatic break in military ties. Even Côte d’Ivoire, historically one of France’s closest allies in the region, will see French troops begin leaving in January 2026. Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has said all foreign troops will depart starting in 2025, emphasizing a future of “open, diversified and uninhibited cooperation.”
This wave of disengagement isn’t just about military bases or diplomatic protocol—it’s a profound geopolitical transformation. The Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), forged by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is more than a security pact. It’s a statement of intent, a declaration that these nations are ready to chart their own course. The anti-French sentiment fueling these moves has become widespread, especially after Mali’s government demanded French troops leave “without delay” in March 2022. As business a.m. reports, “It now appears like popular public opinions and sentiments are reshaping francophone countries’ official attitude and decisions toward France.”
France’s waning influence has deep economic roots as well. The CFA franc, still used in West and Central Africa, is printed under French supervision, and about 65 percent of all money printed for these countries is held as deposits in French banks. Nearly 25 African nations remain tied to France through monetary and customs unions, but these arrangements are now under unprecedented scrutiny. In 2019, France’s attempt to introduce the Eco currency as a replacement for the CFA was rebuffed, a sign that the old playbook is no longer working. As more countries assert their independence, French corporations are being forced to rethink how they do business on the continent without Paris’ backing.
The unraveling of Françafrique—the term for France’s post-colonial network of political, economic, and military influence—has exposed deep vulnerabilities in the French economy. France’s energy security, for example, has long depended on uranium from Niger. Now, with Niger and other partners turning away, questions are mounting about the sustainability of France’s energy and economic models.
Meanwhile, France itself is facing a storm of political and economic troubles. The government’s national debt has ballooned to 114 percent of GDP, and the budget deficit stands at a worrying 5.8 percent. In early September, Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s credit rating, citing both fiscal and political instability. The government has cycled through five prime ministers in under two years, with the most recent, Sebastien Lecornu, struggling to pass a 2026 budget amid widespread protests and a fractious parliament. A failed attempt to install Francois Bayrou as prime minister ended in a no-confidence vote, further eroding confidence in President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership.
The consequences are tangible. French private-sector activity has slumped to its lowest level in five months. According to S&P Global, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index for France dropped to 48.4 in September 2025, down from 49.8 the previous month and well below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Bloomberg analysts had expected a milder decline, but the reality was harsher, with both services and manufacturing sectors hit hard by ongoing political turmoil.
The malaise in France is casting a shadow over the entire euro zone. Despite Germany’s robust fiscal expansion, which has propped up sentiment and kept the HCOB flash composite PMI for the euro zone at 51.2 in September (its ninth consecutive month of growth), the underlying picture is less rosy. As Oxford Economics’ Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani told Reuters, “Sentiment was soft and incoming orders from abroad continued worsening, pointing to no strong rebound happening after the drop in exports following the introduction of tariffs.”
Germany’s PMI reached a 16-month high of 52.4, but France’s contraction for the 13th consecutive month—its fastest pace since April—has become a drag on the bloc. ING economist Bert Colijn observed, “France stands out negatively. With heightened political uncertainty, the French economy appears to be mirroring this sense of instability.” The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has warned that the full effects of recent U.S. tariffs on the euro zone have yet to be felt. These trade frictions, combined with France’s instability, are expected to slow euro zone growth to just 1.0 percent in 2026, down from 1.2 percent in 2025.
Amid this turmoil, French households and businesses are growing increasingly hesitant. Public services are in decline, with health professionals citing labor shortages in hospitals, rural residents lamenting the closure of train lines, and students and academics decrying a lack of resources for universities. Investors are wary, and the costs of French borrowing have risen following the credit downgrade. The euro zone, for its part, is watching nervously as its second-largest economy teeters on the brink.
As France’s influence in Africa fades and its economic woes deepen, the broader implications are hard to ignore. The euro zone’s stability, already threatened by external shocks like tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, now faces the added risk of a weakened France. For many African nations, this is a moment of opportunity—a chance to assert their sovereignty and pursue new partnerships. For France, it’s a reckoning with the limits of power in a changing world.
Whether France can adapt to this new reality remains to be seen. What’s clear is that the old order is gone, and the consequences of its unraveling will be felt far beyond Paris.
