With the clock ticking down to a fast-approaching funding deadline, the United States faces the real possibility of a federal government shutdown on October 1, 2025. Unless Congress passes a stopgap spending bill before midnight on September 30, millions of Americans—including tens of thousands of federal workers and military personnel—could soon feel the consequences. The standoff in Washington is not only about numbers on a spreadsheet; it's about the livelihoods of everyday Americans, the integrity of government programs, and the balance of power between the branches of government.
According to TIME, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), under President Donald Trump, has issued a directive that marks a stark departure from previous shutdown preparations. Instead of treating a shutdown as a temporary disruption, the Trump administration is instructing agencies to prepare plans for permanent layoffs in programs that would lose funding. The memo, obtained by TIME, directs agencies to begin drafting reduction-in-force plans in the event of a shutdown, potentially eliminating jobs in areas the president has sought to scale back. This move escalates the standoff with Democratic lawmakers and raises the stakes for hundreds of thousands of federal employees.
The last government shutdown, which occurred in December 2018 during Trump's first term, lasted 34 days—the longest in modern U.S. history. While shutdowns have become an all-too-familiar political tool, the current situation carries added uncertainty and anxiety. Many federal agencies are still reeling from workforce reductions earlier this year. Since Trump returned to office in 2025, roughly 200,000 federal workers have left government service, though some were later rehired. Now, programs without mandatory funding—such as domestic policy initiatives, regulatory offices, and research programs—are especially vulnerable to cuts, according to the OMB.
The impact of a shutdown would ripple across the country, but the effects are especially acute in places like San Diego County, home to more than 47,000 federal workers and over 100,000 active-duty military personnel. As reported by the San Diego Union-Tribune, these workers could face furloughs or be forced to work without pay. Congressman Mike Levin put it bluntly: "We are just five days away from a government shutdown." He added, "If the government shuts down, it's because they wanted it to shut down. It's because they refuse to negotiate in good faith with any of us."
The American Federation of Government Employees, which represents many federal workers in the region, expressed deep frustration. "Federal employees are not bargaining chips. They are veterans, caregivers, law enforcement officers, and neighbors who serve their country and fellow Americans every day. They deserve stability and respect, not pink slips and political games," the union said in a statement.
For federal employees, the stakes are high. If the government shuts down, tens of thousands will be furloughed and sent home without pay. Essential workers—those in public safety and national security—must continue to work, but without a paycheck. Once funding resumes, the government is legally required to repay federal employees and military personnel. However, federal contractors are not so lucky; they would not be compensated for missed time. This time around, the OMB's reduction-in-force plans mean some positions could be permanently eliminated, breaking with decades of precedent and injecting new uncertainty into an already tense situation.
Air travel is another major concern. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents and air traffic controllers are considered essential and must continue working during a shutdown, albeit without pay. In the 2018-2019 shutdown, many TSA officers called in sick, leading to closed checkpoints and long lines. A shortage of air traffic controllers even grounded flights at LaGuardia Airport, causing delays across the East Coast. As TIME notes, similar disruptions could occur again if the shutdown drags on.
What about Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid? Agencies that operate on permanent funding, like the Social Security Administration and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, are supposed to continue functioning during a shutdown. Social Security checks, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits would keep flowing. However, past shutdowns have led to cutbacks in services—such as delays in issuing new Social Security cards or replacement Medicare cards—because thousands of employees may be furloughed, slowing responses for those needing assistance.
Veterans are also affected. The Veterans Health Administration is funded through advance appropriations, so most health services would continue. But administrative functions and benefits processing could face delays if funding lapses. As TIME reports, services outside the health system, such as administrative support, are at risk.
For low-income families, the stakes are perhaps most immediate. The Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) nutrition program, which provides groceries to families in need, is on track to run out of money for new applicants starting October 1, according to a White House official cited by TIME. If that happens, states could stop providing assistance to new eligible applicants almost immediately. The Trump administration has requested additional funds for WIC, and while the House included this funding in its stopgap bill, the measure lacks sufficient support in the Senate. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or food stamps, would continue for 30 days after a shutdown begins, but a prolonged impasse could jeopardize benefits for millions.
National parks and Smithsonian museums would also close during a shutdown, depriving travelers and tourists of access and causing significant losses in visitor spending. The National Park Service estimated that the 2013 shutdown led to a $500 million loss in visitor spending nationwide. Meanwhile, the Postal Service, which is self-funded, would continue normal operations, so mail delivery would not be affected.
Immigration enforcement is considered essential, so agents with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would remain on duty. However, immigration court hearings may be delayed because they rely on Justice Department appropriations. California Senator Alex Padilla has called for additional resources for immigration judges and support staff in the new federal budget, emphasizing the need to address court backlogs.
Healthcare is another flashpoint in the debate. Democrats are pushing to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025, warning that failure to do so would drive up healthcare premiums. Senator Adam Schiff highlighted the impact: "In Oceanside—for example, a family of four, a median family of four... they can expect their premiums in the marketplace to go up by $952, almost a $1000 increase." President Trump, however, has rejected these demands, saying, "What they're really asking for is they want to pay for illegal aliens that have come into our country by the millions and get onto the rolls, and they want to pay, and our people don't want to do that."
As the deadline looms, the political impasse shows no sign of breaking. With Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, at least seven Senate Democrats would need to support a stopgap bill to break a filibuster. Democratic leaders are demanding a permanent extension of ACA subsidies and restoration of foreign aid and public broadcasting funds that Trump cut earlier this year. Trump, for his part, has refused to meet with Democratic leaders, deepening the standoff.
The threat of a government shutdown is more than a political abstraction. It is a test of priorities, values, and the ability of elected officials to govern in the public interest. As families, workers, and communities brace for uncertainty, the choices made in the coming days will reverberate far beyond the halls of Congress.
