As the 2025 harvest season kicks off across key agricultural regions, farmers are facing a familiar but nerve-wracking challenge: the persistent lack of moisture in the soil. On August 20, 2025, CTV News drew attention to the mounting concerns among farmers as combines roll into the fields. The uncertainty is palpable—so much so that one farmer described the season as a high-stakes gamble. "Farming is a poker game," he remarked, capturing the anxiety and risk that comes with betting on the weather.
Despite these concerns, the global grain markets are telling a more complicated story. According to Grain Central, the Pro Farmer US crop tour reported some stress in Central Indiana corn, with visible signs of pollination stress such as black tip. Yet, overall, the tour found that the United States is still on track for a large crop, with healthy yields reported in states like Ohio and South Dakota. In fact, scouts pegged Ohio corn at nearly 186 bushels per acre—a figure that reinforces the sense of abundance rather than scarcity.
Market reactions have been swift and, at times, counterintuitive. Wheat prices, for example, continued their downward slide due to quiet demand and an ample global supply. Chicago wheat futures dipped 0.8%, while Matif—a key European wheat market—slipped €1.75 per tonne. Even with French wheat regaining competitiveness in North Africa for the first time in years, the global surplus has kept any rallies firmly capped. Exporters noted that while demand remains steady, the sheer volume of wheat available worldwide is preventing any significant upward movement in prices.
The weather, always a central character in the agricultural drama, has so far been broadly constructive. Argentina’s wheat crop is tracking above average, and India’s late monsoon is expected to aid planting efforts there. Even a recent Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, which briefly raised alarms about supply risks, failed to move the needle much—flows are expected to resume soon, and heavy Russian exports continue to cap global markets.
For corn, the picture is similar. US corn futures slid 0.8% to $4.03 per bushel, reflecting the healthy yields reported from Ohio and South Dakota. While there are pockets of Indiana showing tip back and weather stress, replenishing rains have eased concerns in those areas. However, a looming convergence in the global corn market is on the horizon: the US harvest and delayed Brazilian corn exports could hit the market simultaneously in October and November 2025. Analysts warn this could pressure global markets further, especially for feed barley, as China’s reduction in its sow herd adds to the downward pressure.
Soybeans, too, have not been immune to the prevailing bearish sentiment. Futures dropped 0.7% to $10.34 per bushel, with the Pro Farmer tour consistently finding strong pod counts across the Midwest. Processors are slashing bids in the Eastern Midwest, and industry analysts at AgResource have warned that farmers will likely sell beans heavily this year to fund 2026 input costs. Canola, meanwhile, followed soybeans lower, with Winnipeg under pressure from stronger US yield reports.
Biofuel policy is proving to be another wild card in the oilseed markets. The Philippines recently paused its planned biodiesel increase on inflation fears, while Indonesia is pushing for a B50 mandate in 2026. Shifts in these regional mandates could redirect demand for oilseeds and vegetable oils, adding yet another layer of uncertainty to an already complex market.
Currency fluctuations are also playing a significant role in shaping local grain prices. The Australian dollar fell 0.57% overnight on August 19-20, 2025, which helped soften the blow from weaker global wheat prices for Australian exporters. In Western Australia, canola bids are holding firm around A$850, wheat at $350, and barley steady at $324. In Victoria, track markets saw canola at $818, wheat steady at $348, and barley at $312. A rainfall event is even being built into forecasts for South Australia, Victoria, and Southern New South Wales for mid-to-late next week, with 15-25mm expected across most parts. This could offer some relief to local growers who have been anxiously watching the skies.
Despite all this, the overall sentiment in the grain and oilseed markets remains weak. Traders point out that even the recent weakness in the Australian dollar is barely offsetting the global price softness for local exporters. The broader macroeconomic picture isn’t helping either. US equities fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. European markets rose modestly, but yields edged lower, leaving traders on edge as they await signals from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting at Jackson Hole. S&P reaffirmed the US’s AA+ rating, citing a 75% year-over-year increase in tariff revenues as a rare fiscal cushion, but this reassurance did little to shift market sentiment.
Energy prices have also softened, with WTI crude dropping to $62.5 per barrel as geopolitical risks eased, despite ongoing Russia–Ukraine strikes on pipelines and refineries. China has stepped up crude purchases, taking advantage of discounted Russian barrels left by India. Meanwhile, base metals have weakened on a stronger US dollar, though supply-side tightness in copper remains supportive. Beijing’s push to rein in overproduction and negative treatment charges has highlighted the strain on Chinese smelters. Looking further ahead, BHP forecasts that India’s steel output could quadruple to 600 million tonnes over the coming decades, potentially boosting long-run demand for iron ore.
Back on the farm, the day-to-day reality for many growers is a blend of hope and hard calculation. In the east, old crop faba bean and lupin markets remain quiet as containment feeding demand has dried up, and prices are still too expensive to compete with canola and soybean meal for feed mills. Delivered Darling Downs bids are around $328 for January and beyond, with barley at $316 and sorghum for the current season at $353. As one farmer put it, “Farming is a poker game”—a sentiment that seems to capture the spirit of the season, with growers weighing every decision against the unpredictable hand they’ve been dealt by weather, markets, and policy shifts.
As the 2025 harvest progresses, farmers, traders, and policymakers alike will be watching the skies, the markets, and each other. With so many moving parts—from rainfall forecasts in Australia to biofuel mandates in Asia and bumper crops in the US—one thing is certain: the stakes in this year’s agricultural "poker game" have rarely been higher.
