Sunday’s municipal elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, have sent tremors through the country’s political landscape. With nearly 57% of eligible voters casting their ballots on September 14, 2025, the results revealed a dramatic shift: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged, nearly tripling its support and breaking through in a region long considered a stronghold for mainstream parties.
According to preliminary official results reported by Bloomberg and other outlets, the AfD increased its vote share by 9.4 percentage points to 14.5%, compared to its 5.1% performance in the previous 2020 elections. Some early projections from ARD’s Infratest dimap poll even put the party’s share as high as 16.5%. Regardless of the exact figure, the message was clear: the AfD is no longer a force confined to eastern Germany. Its appeal has spread to the west, and it is now impossible for Germany’s political establishment to ignore.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, retained its position as the state’s strongest party, securing 33.3% of the vote—a slight decline from its 34.3% result in 2020. The Social Democrats (SPD), once dominant in this industrial heartland, continued their downward slide, dropping to 22.1% from 24.3%. The Greens suffered even steeper losses, their share falling from 20% to 13.5%, reflecting a shift in voter priorities amid ongoing economic and energy crises.
“This is a great success for us. We are a people’s party and we all bear a great responsibility for Germany,” said AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla on social media, celebrating a result that party leaders described as a mandate for change. AfD regional leader Martin Vincentz went further, framing the election as a “referendum on the direction of our country.” Alice Weidel, another jubilant AfD leader, declared, “There’s no avoiding the AfD in NRW any longer.”
For the CDU, the outcome is a mixed blessing. The party remains in the lead, but its marginal decline suggests that the coalition government under Chancellor Merz has yet to fully consolidate support. The election was widely seen as the first major test for Merz’s uneasy coalition with the SPD, which has faced criticism for its handling of economic stagnation and voter concerns about immigration. The AfD, whose platform prioritizes migration control, has capitalized on these anxieties, seeking to expand its influence from its traditional eastern base into western Germany.
North Rhine-Westphalia is no ordinary state. Home to almost a quarter of Germany’s 81 million inhabitants, it encompasses the Ruhr region—a former industrial powerhouse with a diverse population, from creative student cities to declining mining towns and high-tech hubs. This diversity has long made it a bellwether for national political trends. As the BBC and The Independent note, the SPD’s continued erosion here reflects a broader crisis for the party, which has struggled to retain its working-class base in the face of rising populism. The CDU’s slight dip, meanwhile, underscores the challenges facing Chancellor Merz’s government as it seeks to balance economic and social pressures.
“This result should give us pause,” warned Hendrik Wüst, the CDU’s state leader and North Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President. “We can’t sleep easy—not even my own party, which won the election so clearly.” SPD premier Olaf Lies of Lower Saxony echoed the concern: “I am looking at the AfD’s results with great concern. This should give us pause for thought because this is a path that is emerging, and we democrats must counter it.”
The Greens’ sharp decline—losing nearly a third of their vote share—reflects shifting priorities among voters. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and amid the ongoing energy crisis, economic and social concerns appear to have taken precedence over environmental issues. The Free Democrats also suffered heavy losses, further evidence of a political landscape in flux.
Perhaps most striking was the AfD’s performance in mayoral races. For the first time, its candidates advanced to second-round run-offs in three major cities of the Ruhr Valley: Gelsenkirchen, Duisburg, and Hagen. Sören Link, the SPD mayor of Duisburg, who now faces an AfD challenger, was blunt in his assessment: “Something is wrong with the strategy,” he said, calling for the party to take a harder line on AfD signature themes like immigration. Duisburg, once a steel-making powerhouse with a flourishing river port, is now one of Germany’s poorest cities—a microcosm of the challenges facing the SPD and the country as a whole.
The local elections are being closely watched as a barometer ahead of key state elections in Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Berlin in 2026. A weekend INSA poll, cited by The Independent, placed Merz’s conservatives and the AfD neck-and-neck nationally at 25%, with the SPD trailing at 14%. The AfD, which became Germany’s second biggest party in the February 2025 federal elections and received an endorsement from tech billionaire Elon Musk, has been officially classified as a right-wing extremist organization by Germany’s domestic spy agency—a designation currently on hold pending a court appeal.
For many observers, the results in North Rhine-Westphalia are both a warning and a wake-up call. The rise of the far right is not unique to Germany; across Europe, populist movements have gained ground, fueled by economic anxieties, immigration debates, and disillusionment with traditional parties. But the implications for Germany—a cornerstone of the European Union and the continent’s largest economy—are particularly significant. As Bloomberg’s Brussels Edition put it, the results were "bad, but it could have been worse." The AfD’s breakthrough in the west signals a new era, one in which established parties must grapple with a resurgent populist force that is no longer confined to the margins.
Within party ranks, the pressure is mounting. SPD leader and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil faces calls to boost the party’s profile and assert himself as junior partner in the coalition. “This is a warning signal, not just for us but for all democratic parties,” said CDU state leader Hendrik Wüst, emphasizing the need for vigilance and adaptation.
As Germany looks to the future, the task for its political leaders is clear but daunting: address the underlying grievances driving the AfD’s rise—be they economic insecurity, concerns over migration, or a sense of political alienation—without compromising the democratic values that have long defined the country. The next few years will reveal whether the mainstream parties can rise to the challenge, or whether the AfD’s momentum will reshape German politics for the foreseeable future.
For now, North Rhine-Westphalia stands as a microcosm of a nation—and a continent—in the midst of profound change.
