As the NFL preseason barrels ahead and fantasy football draft season reaches a fever pitch, the landscape for Individual Defensive Player (IDP) and offensive stars is shifting faster than a running back in open space. If you blink, you might just miss a crucial change in Average Draft Position (ADP)—and that could spell disaster for your fantasy squad come September. With training camps in full swing and real, live preseason games underway, the time to pay attention to ADP trends is now. Let’s break down the latest risers and fallers, the logic behind the movement, and what savvy fantasy managers should be watching as August 2025 unfolds.
First and foremost, keeping up with ADP trends is more important than ever. As one analyst put it, "If someone does not follow the trends, players will be missed out on or be drafted too early. You want to use the most current information because of the fluctuation in ADP. The numbers are changing daily." That’s not just hyperbole—this year’s drafts are seeing wild swings, especially as news from training camps and preseason games trickles in. The difference between the first ten fantasy drafts of the season and the most recent ten can be dramatic, and ignoring those shifts could leave you with a roster full of regrets.
Let’s start with the IDP defensive linemen, where movement has been both surprising and instructive. Unlike the linebacker position, which is notoriously volatile, only four of the top twenty ADP risers among defensive linemen have actually seen their stock go up. Why so few? Injuries, depth chart changes, and the adjustment period for rookies and free agents all play a role. For instance, Joey Bosa of the Buffalo Bills has seen his ADP slide from 140 to 163, and he’s now being drafted in just eight of the last ten drafts, compared to all ten of the first ten. Christian Wilkins, who was released by the Raiders, dropped from 136 to 153. Dexter Lawrence of the Giants fell from 88.4 to 106, as Abdul Carter’s presence on the depth chart raises questions about Lawrence’s role. The Rams’ Braden Fiske and the Ravens’ Nnamdi Madubuike have also tumbled in ADP, but they’re still being drafted—albeit later than before.
What does this mean for fantasy managers? Well, if you’ve got your eye on these defensive linemen, you might be able to wait a round or two longer than you thought. Injuries and roster moves are opening up opportunities for lesser-known players, and those who stay glued to the latest news are reaping the rewards. "The depth charts will change," the analyst notes, "and unexpected players get super opportunities with play time during the pre-season." It’s a reminder that in IDP formats, patience and flexibility are just as important as name recognition.
But the ADP rollercoaster isn’t limited to the defensive side of the ball. On offense, preseason performances, coaching changes, and injury news are causing seismic shifts. Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers’ workhorse, has climbed the ADP chart by 3.69 spots to an average of 9.76. With Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk sidelined, McCaffrey is now the undisputed focal point of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. As the analyst points out, "If you are someone who drafts injury-agnostic and understands what his role is on the 49ers, you can grab him early and then make some provisional picks later to protect yourself." The message? Don’t be afraid to draft McCaffrey high, but have a plan in place if the injury bug bites.
Chuba Hubbard of the Carolina Panthers is another riser, jumping six spots to an ADP of 46.85. His coach, Dave Canales, is known for feeding his lead back, and Hubbard looks set to benefit from that philosophy once again. "It’s all about the volume and Canales is giving it all to Hubbard, once again," the analyst writes. If you’re looking for a dependable RB2 or flex, Hubbard’s your guy.
Rookies are making waves, too. Matthew Golden, the Green Bay Packers’ promising wideout, has seen his ADP skyrocket by 42.15 spots to 98.56. The Packers held Golden out of a recent preseason game, perhaps as a precaution, but it’s also a sign that they see him as a key piece of their offense—especially with Jayden Reed nursing a foot injury. Drake Maye, the New England Patriots’ new quarterback, is up 24.42 spots to 121.32. He’s a trendy late-round pick, particularly for managers who value rushing upside. Marvin Mims of the Denver Broncos is also on the rise, though some remain skeptical about his long-term role given the crowded depth chart.
On the flip side, several big names are tumbling down draft boards. Alvin Kamara, the New Orleans Saints’ star running back, has dropped 20.33 spots to an ADP of 42.46. The culprit? A new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, whose system doesn’t favor running back targets as much as Joe Lombardi’s did. "If Kamara can become more of a power-runner, then maybe Coop is right," the analyst muses, "but if you’re drafting him for his pass-catching, it could be an issue." Age and wear-and-tear aren’t helping Kamara’s case, either.
Isiah Pacheco of the Kansas City Chiefs has slipped nearly six spots to 70.27, as fantasy managers question his fit in Andy Reid’s offense and worry about competition from Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell. Chris Godwin, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ wide receiver, is down to 95.75 amid injury concerns and the emergence of rookie Emeka Egbuka. Keon Coleman of the Buffalo Bills and Wan’Dale Robinson of the New York Giants have also seen their ADP drop, with Robinson’s fall—down 52.15 spots to 181.17—being particularly steep due to scheme changes and new quarterback Russell Wilson’s penchant for deep throws.
The overarching lesson? Context is everything. As one analyst cautions, "Are you looking at ADP that dates all the way back to before the NFL Draft? If you are, you may be missing out on some rising values – players who could be going a little earlier than they were two months ago." Date ranges, preseason performance, coaching changes, and injury updates all need to be factored in when evaluating ADP movement. Blindly following the crowd can lead to overpaying for hype or missing out on hidden gems.
As we approach the final weeks before the regular season, the ADP landscape will continue to shift. The best fantasy managers will stay nimble, keep an eye on the latest news, and trust their own evaluations—without getting swept up in the noise. Whether you’re targeting a surging rookie or waiting to pounce on a falling veteran, the key to draft-day success is staying informed and making every pick count. With preseason action still ongoing, there’s plenty of excitement—and uncertainty—ahead for fantasy football enthusiasts everywhere.
