The first day of fall 2025 arrived with relatively little fanfare, but for millions across the United States, the new season brings a familiar question: what kind of autumn can we expect this year? Will it be a classic sweater-weather stretch, or will summer’s heat and droughts linger on? From Indiana to Florida and Massachusetts to Georgia, forecasters, almanacs, and state agencies are weighing in—each offering a slightly different vision of what’s in store between now and winter’s first chill.
In Indiana and the broader Midwest, fall officially began on September 22, 2025. According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac, Hoosiers should brace for a “cool and dry” season, with temperatures projected to be as much as two degrees cooler than normal in September and October. This forecast, as reported by IndyStar, would mark a noticeable shift from last year’s autumn, when Indianapolis saw average monthly highs of 81°F in September, 72°F in October, and 56°F in November—already a bit warmer than the 30-year averages of 78°F, 66°F, and 52°F, respectively.
But the story doesn’t end with cool breezes and crisp nights. The Farmer’s Almanac paints a more tumultuous picture, describing a “tug-of-war between fair weather and storm systems” for the Midwest. Severe thunderstorms and even the potential for tornadoes are expected to loom over central states, particularly the Ohio Valley and Plains. October and November, meanwhile, may bring traditionally cool weather and even the chance for early snow in the Great Lakes region. So, while some residents might be unpacking their scarves, others could be keeping an eye on the sky for more dramatic weather swings.
Federal forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, however, offer a different take. Their seasonal outlook, released September 18, suggests that most of the United States—including Indiana—leans toward a warmer-than-normal fall. Specifically, Indiana faces a 33-40% chance of above-average temperatures from October through December. As for rainfall? NOAA predicts equal chances of above or below normal precipitation, leaving the door open for both dry spells and the occasional soaking storm.
These mixed signals are nothing new. Despite claims of 80-85% accuracy from the almanacs, studies have shown their long-range predictions hover near a coin flip—about 52% accuracy, according to a study cited by Popular Mechanics. Still, the forecasts remain a beloved autumn ritual for many, even as modern meteorology continues to refine the science behind seasonal outlooks.
Traveling south, Atlanta and much of Georgia are also greeting fall with above-average warmth and a stubborn dry streak. The first day of fall, September 22, 2025, landed on a Monday, but National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions put the region at a 40-50% chance of seeing higher-than-average temperatures through November. Meredith Wyatt, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that while some cool days will sneak in—especially as October rolls around—the overall trend is toward a warmer autumn. “It’s not uncommon for us to have cloudy days this time of year, especially going into October,” Wyatt said. “So it certainly could be (that) we’ll have some cool days interspersed in there.”
Yet, it’s not just heat that’s making headlines. Dry weather has triggered moderate drought conditions in parts of Georgia, particularly in counties like Fulton, Fayette, Douglas, and Carroll. Rainfall in Atlanta is running below normal, with just 2.83 inches recorded after May 28, 2025, and most recent showers falling short of what’s needed to alleviate parched soil and thirsty streams. The consequences are visible: some leaves are turning brown and dropping long before the air feels autumnal, and fire risk remains a concern for the state’s forests. As the season progresses, occasional scattered showers may bring temporary relief, but the broader outlook suggests the drought could linger for weeks to come.
Florida, famous for its endless summers, is also feeling the subtle shift into fall—at least in the northernmost parts of the state. The astronomical start of fall, marked by the autumnal equinox on September 22, brings with it the promise of fall foliage for those willing to travel. While most of Florida remains green, the Panhandle and North Florida offer the best chance to catch changing leaves, particularly in places like Torreya State Park near Bristol, Three Rivers State Park near Snead, and Blackwater River State Forest near Milton. According to USA TODAY Network-Florida, leaves could begin changing as early as the week of October 20, peaking in early to mid-November.
But don’t expect a dramatic temperature drop. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a warmer-than-normal, hot, and dry fall for most of Florida. September’s average temperature is predicted at 82°F (one degree above normal), with rainfall at 4.5 inches—three inches below normal. October should be slightly cooler, around 76°F, but still drier than average. Interestingly, The Farmer’s Almanac notes that the above-normal Atlantic hurricane season could bring periods of increased precipitation and brief cool snaps, especially in October and November. So, while the Sunshine State may not be the first place that comes to mind for classic fall weather, those in the know can still find pockets of autumnal beauty—if they know where to look.
Meanwhile, in Massachusetts, anticipation is building for the annual leaf-peeping spectacle. As of September 22, the state had not yet reached peak foliage, but the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation’s revamped fall foliage tracker predicts that northwestern regions, including the Berkshires, will hit their colorful peak around October 13. The rest of Massachusetts should follow between October 20 and October 27, with Cape Cod lagging about a week behind. Felicia Hubacz, a forest health specialist for DCR, told WBUR that the tracker is the “ideal tool” for planning scenic drives, as it’s updated weekly and incorporates years of forestry data and current weather conditions. However, experts warn that this year’s foliage may be more muted due to a rainy spring and warm summer nights—a pattern echoed across New England. Drought conditions, too, are speeding up the season, causing some leaves to turn early and shortening the window for peak color.
Across the country, the arrival of fall in 2025 is a story of contrasts. While some regions brace for cooler, drier days and the fiery hues of changing leaves, others face lingering warmth, drought, and unpredictable storms. Whether you’re planning a leaf-peeping road trip in Massachusetts, waiting for sweater weather in Indiana, or hoping for a break from the heat in Florida, one thing’s for sure: autumn will keep Americans guessing—and watching the skies—for weeks to come.
