On November 19, 2025, the quiet of Russia’s Krasnodar Krai was shattered by a series of explosions, sending shockwaves—both literal and figurative—throughout the region. Local residents, startled by the blasts, quickly reported what appeared to be a targeted attack on the Ilsky oil refinery, a key node in Russia’s sprawling energy infrastructure, according to the Astra Telegram channel. The reverberations didn’t stop at the refinery’s gates: airports in both Krasnodar and Gelendzhik temporarily halted operations in the aftermath, disrupting travel and commerce in southern Russia.
As of the evening of November 19, Russian officials had yet to offer any public comment on the incident, leaving a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the region. The silence from Moscow stood in stark contrast to the growing unease among residents and industry observers, who watched as one of Russia’s vital oil facilities became the latest casualty in a campaign of deep-strike attacks that have increasingly defined the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
According to Quantum Commodity Intelligence, the repercussions of these attacks were immediate and significant: Russia’s refinery runs fell by 10% in the wake of the drone strikes. The reduction in refinery operations marked one of the sharpest drops in recent memory, underlining just how vulnerable even the heart of Russia’s energy sector has become to modern warfare’s shifting front lines.
This latest strike is part of a broader pattern that has emerged over the past year. As reported by The Guardian, Ukrainian drones have been targeting energy facilities deep inside Russia on an almost daily basis. These attacks have forced the Kremlin to confront vulnerabilities in its critical infrastructure—vulnerabilities it once believed to be far removed from the battlefield. The Ilsky refinery, like many others, has been hit repeatedly, contributing to a rise in domestic fuel prices and adding to the economic strain already imposed by Western sanctions.
In response to the mounting threat, Russia has moved swiftly to bolster its defenses at home. Earlier in November, President Vladimir Putin quietly signed a decree authorizing the deployment of reservists to guard key sites, including oil refineries. This measure, which allows the Kremlin to call up a pool of about two million reservists without declaring a fresh mobilization, is intended to shore up the protection of critical infrastructure. According to Russian lawmakers, these reservists undergo annual military training and receive a modest monthly payment for remaining in the active reserve. Until now, they have been spared from fighting in Ukraine unless they volunteered.
But the Kremlin’s strategy goes beyond boots on the ground. Since November 10, Russian authorities have introduced new regulations aimed at disrupting the electronic control of drones. One such measure is the so-called SIM card “cooling-off period,” which automatically blocks the mobile connections of users returning from abroad for 24 hours. The goal is to prevent drones from leveraging civilian mobile networks to transmit telemetry, video, or control signals—a tactic Ukrainian forces have reportedly used in past operations. While the restriction has caused confusion among Russians returning from trips abroad, and even some unintended disruptions in border regions like Pskov, officials argue it is a necessary step to protect the country’s infrastructure.
These new laws and regulations are part of a wider push to tighten control and mobilize Russian society for what the Kremlin now openly acknowledges as a protracted conflict. "Russia is acclimating its population to a prolonged semi-military existence and urging people to brace for greater sacrifices as the war drags on," said Andrei Kolesnikov, an independent political expert based in Moscow, as quoted by The Guardian. The messaging from the state is clear: the country must be ready to endure hardship in the name of national security.
That message appears to be resonating, at least if official statistics are to be believed. A recent VTsIOM survey—the state-controlled polling agency often used to manufacture consensus—claimed that nearly 70% of Russians were “ready to tighten their belts to defend their country” if required. This narrative, observers argue, is designed to prepare society for a worsening economic outlook, as Russia’s economy shows signs of stagnation under the weight of sanctions and the costs of war.
Yet, with the tightening grip of the state comes an escalation in penalties for those accused of sabotage. In recent weeks, Moscow has sharply increased punishments for sabotage inside Russia, introducing measures that range from lifelong, Stalin-era-style sentences to prosecuting children as young as 14. Just last week, President Putin signed legislation imposing a life sentence on anyone involving minors in acts of sabotage, while lowering the age of criminal responsibility for such offenses from 18 to 14. Kirill Kabanov, a member of the presidential human rights council, defended these harsh measures as “a necessary measure for the current moment, given that we are a country at war.” He added, “It’s the reality we unfortunately have to accept.”
Since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian operatives have turned to clandestine guerrilla tactics, including sabotage, targeted assassinations, and attempts to blow up ammunition depots, oil pipelines, and railways deep inside Russia. While Ukrainian officials rarely claim responsibility for attacks on Russian soil, they often drop hints suggesting their involvement. The Kremlin, meanwhile, accuses Kyiv of orchestrating and financing many of these operations, including paying Russian teenagers to carry them out. Russian courts have convicted at least 158 minors on terrorism- and sabotage-related charges since the war began.
As the war grinds on, the sense of normalcy in Russia is being steadily eroded. Authorities have already deployed a dense network of air defense systems around President Putin’s secluded Valdai residence and the elite Rublyovka neighborhood, home to many political elites. Despite these efforts, the sheer number of oil refineries and industrial plants tied to the war effort has made it difficult to defend every site adequately. The attack on the Ilsky refinery is a stark reminder of these gaps.
Looking ahead, the conflict shows little sign of abating. Russia’s deputy head of the security council and former president, Dmitry Medvedev, recently reiterated that the war would continue until Russia “reaches its goals.” By January 2026, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will have lasted longer than its involvement in World War II—a sobering milestone that underscores the scale and duration of the current conflict.
The events of November 19 serve as a vivid illustration of the new normal in Russia: a nation on edge, bracing for further attacks, and adapting to a reality where the home front is as much a target as the battlefield. As the country tightens its defenses and its citizens adjust to a more militarized existence, the true cost of this protracted war—economic, social, and human—continues to mount, with no clear end in sight.
