As Bihar braces for the official results of its 2025 Assembly elections, the state is abuzz with anticipation, speculation, and debate. With the final count set for November 14, the exit polls released over the past two days have painted a vivid—if contested—picture: the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears poised for another term, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) faces an uphill battle. But, as always in Indian politics, nothing is certain until the last ballot is counted.
Voting for Bihar’s 243-member Assembly wrapped up on November 11, capping a two-phase process that saw record-breaking participation. According to the Election Commission, the state registered a historic high voter turnout of 66.91%, the highest since 1951. The second phase alone saw 67.14% turnout as of 5 p.m., with districts like Kishanganj (76.26%), Katihar (75.23%), and Purnia (73.79%) leading the way. The first phase, held on November 6, had already set the tone with 65.08% participation. The surge in voter engagement was noted across the political spectrum, with all major parties—including the much-discussed Jan Suraaj Party—claiming it as a sign of support in their favor, according to Hindustan Times and the Election Commission data.
Exit poll projections began pouring in shortly after the last votes were cast. The consensus? Most pollsters forecast a comfortable, even sweeping, win for the NDA. Axis My India, one of the most closely watched agencies, predicted an NDA tally between 121 and 141 seats, with the MGB trailing at 98 to 118 seats. Today’s Chanakya, another influential pollster, projected an even larger margin: NDA with 160 seats, MGB at 77, and Others securing six. Other agencies such as Matrize, People’s Pulse, and Dainik Bhaskar offered similar ranges, with NDA seat projections spanning from 125 to 167 and the MGB generally seen in the 70 to 118-seat range. The majority mark needed to form government is 122 seats, and by all accounts, the NDA is set to cross this threshold comfortably.
For the opposition, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, the numbers are sobering. The Mahagathbandhan, which in 2015 managed to unseat the NDA before the alliance unraveled, is projected to win between 70 and 118 seats, depending on the poll. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, once considered a possible kingmaker, appears to have made little impact, with most projections giving it between zero and five seats.
The stakes are high. Bihar, long regarded as a political bellwether, sends 40 lawmakers to India’s Parliament and is seen as a crucial testing ground ahead of upcoming state elections in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Assam, not to mention the 2029 national polls. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself campaigned vigorously, holding a roadshow in Patna on November 2. As Bloomberg noted, a win in Bihar would not only reaffirm Modi’s standing after a challenging year but also strengthen the NDA’s position on the national stage.
Yet, amid the chorus of projections, skepticism abounds. Congress MP Tariq Anwar remarked to ANI, “They are only a speculation. It indicates what might happen. It would not be right to think that they are accurate.” Echoing this sentiment, Congress leader Meem Afzal told ANI, “No one trusts exit polls. I do not need to say who makes them and how. The position of the BJP and Nitish Kumar is not good there.” RJD leader Shakti Singh Yadav was even more direct: “There are people conducting exit polls whose own profiles are not in order... Now they are going to decide the future of Bihar. The exit results will be out on the 14th of November... Bihar is moving towards change. The BJP is scared.”
On the other side, BJP and NDA leaders have exuded confidence, with some already preparing for celebrations. Bihar’s Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha expressed gratitude, stating, “I thank every Bihari for voting in favour of the NDA government.” State BJP chief Dilip Jaiswal summed up the mood among NDA supporters: “Voters across Bihar have made up their minds, 'Phir Ek Baar NDA Sarkaar'.” The party even ordered 501 kg of laddoos in anticipation of victory, as reported by Hindustan Times. JD(U) MP Ram Nath Thakur credited the NDA’s expected performance to Nitish Kumar’s two-decade tenure and development work: “The people understand this, they can see it.”
Women voters, in particular, have emerged as a pivotal force. The BJP claimed that women voted “decisively” for the NDA, citing historic female turnout. JD(U) spokesperson Rajeev Ranjan echoed this, saying, “We have seen unprecedented voting; whenever women have participated in large numbers, results have been in our favour.”
Still, the opposition remains resolute. Congress general secretary KC Venugopal dismissed the exit polls, pointing to past inaccuracies: “What were the exit poll results after the Haryana elections? A landslide victory for Congress was predicted but the results came in a different way. So let us wait for the results to come.” RJD leader Mrityunjay Tiwari was equally skeptical: “Exit polls have been wrong in the past, which is why I reject them. People have voted to save Bihar, and the results will come on 14 November.” Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav insisted, “The people in Bihar have voted for change; Tejashwi Yadav is going to become the chief minister.”
Allegations of manipulation and bias have also surfaced. Congress MP Digvijaya Singh claimed, “If the NDA wins by more than 140 seats, it will be due to a manipulated voter list and a manipulated EVM.” Rahul Gandhi went further, alleging, “BJP and EC are together openly stealing votes—the murder of democracy is happening live.” Meanwhile, JD(U) leader Neeraj Kumar predicted the opposition would “face the anger of women” for alleged misdeeds, and BJP candidate Ram Kripal Yadav asserted, “Tejashwi Yadav has lost and he is not accepting his defeat... Exit polls are never false.”
For those watching from afar, it’s a familiar Indian election scene: high drama, passionate claims, and a dizzying array of numbers. The only certainty is that the real verdict belongs to the people of Bihar, and it will be delivered on November 14. Until then, the state—and the nation—waits, breath held, as democracy’s great drama plays out once more.
