As the war in Ukraine grinds toward its third year, the diplomatic and military landscape across Europe is rapidly shifting. On December 16, 2025, a flurry of high-level talks, urgent warnings, and pointed diplomatic exchanges underscored the deepening complexity of the conflict and the diverging visions for peace and security on the continent.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking in the Netherlands after days of negotiations with US officials in Berlin, announced that a draft peace plan could be finalized within days. According to Sky News, Zelenskyy described the proposal as "very workable," signaling a rare glimmer of hope for a diplomatic breakthrough. However, the optimism was tempered by the realities on the ground and the entrenched positions of the major players.
One of the most significant developments came from the leaders of Germany, France, the UK, and eight other European countries, who, following talks in Berlin with US President Donald Trump's peace envoys and a Ukrainian delegation, issued a joint statement proposing robust new security guarantees for Kyiv. As reported by RT.com, the plan envisions the deployment of a European-led "Multinational Force Ukraine"—a coalition of willing nations, supported by the US, tasked with assisting in the regeneration of Ukraine's military, securing its skies, and supporting safer seas, including operations inside Ukraine.
The joint statement also called for a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism, as well as legally binding commitments to support Kyiv with armed force, intelligence, logistical assistance, and economic and diplomatic actions. The leaders expressed their expectation that the US would back the initiative, though the Trump administration has thus far declined to clarify the extent of its support. Media reports suggest that Washington may be prepared to offer NATO-style, Congressionally-approved security guarantees to Ukraine—if Kyiv accepts territorial concessions to Russia.
Such concessions remain a non-starter for Ukraine. On December 15, 2025, Zelenskyy reiterated that Kyiv "will not recognize Donbass as Russian—neither de jure nor de facto." This hardline stance was echoed in the European proposals, which also included significant support for building up Ukraine's armed forces, backing its accession to the European Union, and investing in its future prosperity using frozen Russian sovereign assets.
Yet not all European nations are on board with the plan. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk immediately rejected the idea of sending Polish troops to Ukraine, insisting that Poland needs all its forces at home to defend NATO's eastern flank. Italy has also consistently refused to send Italian forces to Ukraine. These divisions highlight the challenges facing any multinational military deployment and the persistent anxieties about Russia's intentions.
Indeed, the sense of threat from Moscow loomed large over a separate defense meeting on December 16, where eight northern and eastern European countries—Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and Lithuania—warned that Russia constitutes the most significant, direct, and long-term threat to security, peace, and stability in the region. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo was blunt: "Russia remains a threat today, tomorrow and for the foreseeable future, for the whole of Europe," he said, according to Sky News.
Moscow, for its part, has flatly rejected the idea of NATO or European forces in Ukraine under any pretext. Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov, quoted by Russian state news agencies, stated after the Berlin talks that Moscow had "no understanding yet of the agreements" and reaffirmed that Russia would not tolerate NATO troops in Ukraine or make any territorial concessions. The Russian embassy in the UK also responded forcefully after the new head of MI6 accused Moscow of "bullying, fearmongering and manipulating" Western countries with attacks below the threshold of all-out war. "Russia has no plans, intentions, or reasons to engage in armed conflict with the United Kingdom, as the local media keeps frightening its audience with. All slander of the 'hybrid threats' type is also completely unfounded," the embassy said in a statement reported by Sky News.
Meanwhile, the war's human toll remains ever-present. In November, the bodies of six unidentified Ukrainian soldiers, killed defending Bakhmut in the Donetsk region during the first year of the war, were returned to Ukraine during a swap and honored with a funeral service in the Lviv region. Zelenskyy, during his visit to the Netherlands, met with injured Ukrainian soldiers recovering at a rehabilitation center, presenting them with medals and expressing the gratitude of the entire Ukrainian people.
On the economic front, Ukraine's defense minister Denys Shmyhal outlined the staggering costs of continued resistance. He stated that Ukraine would require its partners to recover half of its projected $120 billion in defense spending for 2026, with $45 billion already pledged—a record for the war so far. Nearly $5 billion has been committed to defense production, and another $5 billion invested in the purchase of US weapons for Ukraine.
One of the most contentious issues remains the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. Zelenskyy has called on the European Union to unlock these funds, arguing that Ukraine "doesn't see an opportunity to stand strong" without their support. The EU is set to decide on December 18 how to finance Kyiv with these assets, most of which are held by Belgium's central security depository, Euroclear. Belgium, however, has conditioned its participation on other countries sharing the risk, and Russia has vowed retaliation, calling any seizure of its assets theft and launching legal action against Euroclear.
Amid these high-stakes negotiations, the situation on the ground in Ukraine remains tense. The Russian management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant reported on December 16 that it was receiving electricity through only one of two external power lines, with the other disconnected due to military activity. Radiation levels remain normal, but the facility—seized by Russia in March 2022—remains a flashpoint in the conflict. Analysts from the Royal United Services Institute have noted that Russia's continued military presence at the plant is a major obstacle to any sustainable peace settlement.
Elsewhere, Germany's defense ministry announced the end of its Patriot air and missile defense mission in Poland, relocating the systems back to Germany but pledging continued support for NATO's eastern flank. Polish Prime Minister Tusk emphasized that drone defense remains a top priority for the European Union, reflecting the evolving nature of the military threat from Russia.
Back in the UK, the shadow of Russian influence has prompted a rapid political response. Labour leader Keir Starmer authorized an urgent review into foreign interference in British politics after the jailing of Nathan Gill, the former leader of Reform UK in Wales, who admitted to accepting cash linked to pro-Russian statements. The inquiry, led by Philip Rycroft, aims to assess the effectiveness of current financial rules and will report by the end of March. As Steve Reed, the minister announcing the inquiry, told the House of Commons, "The conduct of Gill is a stain on our democracy. The independent review will work to remove that stain."
As 2025 draws to a close, the war in Ukraine remains a crucible for Europe's security, unity, and values. While new diplomatic initiatives and security proposals offer some hope, the path to peace is fraught with obstacles—territorial disputes, military risks, and deep-seated mistrust. For now, the fate of Ukraine, and perhaps the wider European order, hangs in the balance.
