New York City’s political landscape shifted dramatically this past weekend when Mayor Eric Adams announced his withdrawal from the mayoral race, sending shockwaves through the city’s already tumultuous political scene. The surprise decision came just as the federal government teetered on the brink of a shutdown, compounding the sense of uncertainty gripping both City Hall and the nation’s capital. As candidates and their supporters scrambled to recalibrate, analysts and insiders weighed in on what Adams’ departure would mean for the race—and for his own enduring legacy.
Adams’ withdrawal, confirmed over the weekend prior to September 30, 2025, left many New Yorkers stunned. The timing was particularly notable, as the city braced for the fallout from an increasingly likely federal government shutdown. According to Capital Tonight, Bryan Lesswing, senior vice president at SKDK and a former senior advisor and communications director for Governor Kathy Hochul, offered a measured assessment of the situation. Lesswing discussed how Adams’ exit could reshape the field for remaining candidates and what it might mean for Adams’ place in New York’s political history.
But perhaps the most striking assessments came from national analysts observing the race’s broader dynamics. On Sunday, September 28, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten appeared on "CNN Newsroom" to deliver his verdict: Adams’ departure, while dramatic in the headlines, would have little substantive effect on the outcome. "With Adams out, that has the effect of being a giant dud. I don’t think it makes much of a difference at all," Enten told host Jessica Dean. He pointed to polling data that showed Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani as the clear frontrunner, with a commanding 45% of the vote.
Enten’s analysis highlighted the fractured nature of the opposition. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as a Democrat, trailed Mamdani by a wide margin, holding 30% of the vote. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, a familiar figure in New York politics, commanded about one-sixth of the vote. The numbers told a clear story: even with Adams in the race, Mamdani led by 19 points. After Adams’ withdrawal, that lead narrowed only slightly, to 15 points—a difference Enten called "negligible" with just over a month left before Election Day. "This split," Enten explained, "makes a Mamdani victory pretty much impossible to stop."
Further underscoring Mamdani’s dominance, Enten noted that even if Sliwa were to exit the race and consolidate the anti-Mamdani vote, Cuomo would still trail by seven points. In other words, the path to victory for anyone other than Mamdani appeared vanishingly slim. Mamdani’s platform, which includes bold proposals like raising the minimum wage to $30 and launching taxpayer-funded initiatives such as government-run grocery stores, has energized supporters and drawn sharp criticism from opponents. The candidate’s prior victory over Cuomo in the Democratic primary only cemented his status as the race’s central figure.
In his withdrawal announcement, Adams declined to endorse any of the remaining candidates. Instead, he took veiled shots at both Mamdani and Cuomo, a move that left some observers speculating about the mayor’s lingering frustrations and the challenges of maintaining unity within New York’s often fractious Democratic coalition. The lack of an endorsement was particularly striking given Adams’ prior prominence and the high-profile nature of the contest.
Meanwhile, outside the world of polling and punditry, Adams retained at least one prominent supporter. On Tuesday, September 30, cryptocurrency billionaire Brock Pierce—who had donated more than $1 million to Adams’s reelection campaign through a super-PAC—held a press conference in Manhattan to urge the embattled mayor to reconsider his decision. Pierce, a co-founder of the cryptocurrency firm Tether, spoke passionately about his faith in Adams’ vision for New York. "I believe in Adams’ vision for New York," Pierce declared, arguing that the mayor had been unfairly cast as corrupt. The press conference, coming just days after Adams’ withdrawal, underscored the deep divides and strong loyalties that continue to shape the city’s political discourse.
Pierce’s intervention was as much a commentary on the broader mood in New York as it was a personal plea. The city, still recovering from the shocks of the pandemic and grappling with persistent economic and social challenges, has seen its politics grow more polarized and unpredictable. Adams’ administration, while marked by ambitious promises and a focus on public safety, had also been dogged by controversy and accusations of impropriety—allegations Pierce dismissed as unfair.
For many voters, however, the focus has shifted squarely to the future. Mamdani’s progressive agenda has captured the imagination of a significant segment of the electorate, particularly younger and more left-leaning voters. His calls for a $30 minimum wage and expanded public services have drawn both praise and skepticism. Supporters see these proposals as necessary steps to address inequality and improve quality of life for working-class New Yorkers. Critics, including some within the city’s business community, warn of potential economic disruptions and question whether such sweeping changes are feasible.
Andrew Cuomo, once the state’s most powerful Democrat, has struggled to regain his footing after a turbulent exit from the governorship. Despite his name recognition and experience, Cuomo’s campaign has failed to generate the momentum needed to close the gap with Mamdani. Curtis Sliwa, meanwhile, continues to appeal to a loyal base but faces the perennial challenge of running as a Republican in a solidly Democratic city.
As the campaign enters its final weeks, the question on everyone’s mind is less about who will win and more about what the next administration will mean for New York’s future. The city stands at a crossroads, with issues like housing affordability, public safety, and economic recovery dominating the conversation. The absence of an incumbent mayor in the race has only heightened the sense of possibility—and anxiety—about what comes next.
For Eric Adams, the decision to step aside marks the end of a chapter that began with high hopes and ended amid controversy and political headwinds. His legacy, as Bryan Lesswing noted on Capital Tonight, will be shaped by both his accomplishments and the unresolved questions that linger after his departure. Whether Adams’ vision for New York will endure, and whether his supporters like Brock Pierce can sway the course of events, remains to be seen.
Yet for now, the momentum is squarely behind Zohran Mamdani, whose campaign has tapped into a vein of frustration and aspiration running through the city. As New Yorkers prepare to cast their ballots, the race serves as a vivid reminder of the city’s capacity for reinvention—and the enduring power of political surprise.
