America’s elite colleges are facing a turning point. Two years after the Supreme Court’s landmark 2023 decision banning affirmative action in admissions, the number of Black students entering the nation’s most selective universities has dropped sharply. This decline, visible in newly released enrollment data and campus experiences, is raising urgent questions about the future of diversity and access in higher education.
According to an analysis by the Associated Press published on October 23, 2025, Black enrollment is waning at nearly all of the 20 highly selective colleges that have released figures this fall. The numbers are stark: at Princeton University, Black students accounted for just 5% of the incoming class, down from 9% last year—a proportion not seen since 1968. Harvard University’s share of Black freshmen dropped from 18% in 2023 to 11.5% this fall. At the California Institute of Technology and Bates College, Black students make up only about 2% of first-year students.
These declines represent more than just numbers on a spreadsheet. As Princeton sophomore Christopher Quire told the AP, “If this trend continues, in three years this campus will be as Black as it was in the Civil Rights era. It feels like tying our feet together and telling us to restart.” Quire, a member of the campus Black Student Union, described a recent welcome event for Black freshmen that filled only half the room, compared to last year when extra chairs were needed. The shift, he said, threatens decades of progress and sends a chilling message about who belongs at these institutions.
The drop in Black enrollment is not isolated to a single campus or region. The AP analysis found that, among the 20 colleges examined, only Smith College reported a higher percentage of Black students this year than last; Tulane University’s numbers remained flat. The rest saw sizable dips, with Black enrollment often falling from already modest levels of 7% or 8% to even lower. This is especially striking given that Black students make up about 14% of America’s high school graduates.
Harvard’s latest data, released October 23, 2025, reveals a similar trend for Latino students, whose representation dropped from 16% last year to 11% this fall. Asian American enrollment, by contrast, rose from 37% to 41%. International student numbers also slipped slightly, from 16% to 15%, according to The New York Times. The university noted that students could select more than one race, and about 8% chose not to report their race at all.
These shifts come amid intensifying pressure from the Trump administration. Since August, federal officials have ordered colleges to hand over extensive admissions data, aiming to root out what they allege are “racial proxies” in decision-making—such as diversity statements that invite students to discuss their backgrounds. The administration has also demanded that Harvard dismantle its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) office, cap international student admissions, and provide detailed data on foreign enrollees. Threats to revoke billions in research funding, student-visa certification, and even Harvard’s tax-exempt status have accompanied these demands.
Harvard, for its part, has pushed back. In April, the university filed a lawsuit arguing that the administration’s actions were politically motivated and unconstitutional, especially after federal officials froze more than $2 billion in grants. But the consequences of the Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard College are already being felt across the country. The ruling barred universities from considering race as a factor in admissions, forcing institutions to overhaul their recruitment and selection processes.
As the AP and The New York Times report, the impact has been swift and significant. “We’re very confused as to what changed and whether we should be expecting this to be a fluke,” Quire said, voicing a sentiment echoed by many students and faculty. Princeton spokesperson Jennifer Morrill attributed the decline to “natural fluctuations in the application pool,” adding that the university has “scrupulously adhered” to the court’s requirements. Yet for students like Princeton junior Kennedy Beal, the effects are impossible to ignore. “It feels like we’re being set back in time a little bit, and it’s heartbreaking to see. But at the same time, I still have faith that we will persevere. We will continue to demonstrate our excellence in these institutions.”
The decline in Black and Latino enrollment is not simply a matter of legal compliance or administrative oversight. As a recent analysis published October 24, 2025, in America’s most prestigious universities notes, the reduction in representation threatens the diversity of thought and experience that has long been a hallmark of elite campuses. These institutions serve as gateways to leadership in law, business, politics, and academia. When the student body becomes less reflective of the broader population, the pipeline to opportunity narrows, and the risk of widening educational and social inequality grows.
Several factors are driving the decline. The Supreme Court’s decision removed a primary tool for promoting racial diversity, while heightened federal scrutiny has made colleges wary of aggressive outreach or holistic admissions practices that might be perceived as running afoul of the law. Changes in federal financial aid systems and administrative hurdles have further complicated the admissions process, making it harder for underrepresented students to navigate the path to elite education.
Not everyone believes the situation is hopeless. Richard Kahlenberg, a researcher at the Progressive Policy Institute, told the AP that the decreases have not been as steep as some predicted. He argues that colleges still have options to promote diversity, such as giving greater preference to students from lower-income families and eliminating legacy admissions that disproportionately benefit wealthy, white applicants. “I wouldn’t want people to draw from the data a conclusion that the situation is hopeless,” he said.
James Murphy, a director at the Education Reform Now think tank, suggested that the Biden administration’s troubled rollout of a new federal financial aid form may have played a role in this year’s swings. He also noted that some colleges may be backing away from diversity initiatives under pressure from the Trump administration. “Not too many institutions of higher education have stepped up and pushed back against the White House,” Murphy said. “I do expect that there will be increased pressure to come up with the numbers that the Trump administration wants.”
Universities now face a crossroads. Do they continue on a cautious path, prioritizing legal compliance but risking further erosion of diversity? Or do they innovate, finding new ways to foster inclusion—such as prioritizing first-generation college students, expanding outreach to underrepresented communities, and eliminating policies that favor the privileged?
The stakes are high. If elite colleges do not adapt, they risk becoming increasingly homogeneous enclaves, disconnected from the society they are meant to serve. The decline in Black enrollment is not just a statistical blip; it is a warning about the fragility of access and equity in American higher education. The choices made today will shape the demographics, culture, and influence of these institutions for decades to come.
As the data and voices from campuses make clear, the promise of equal opportunity remains unfinished business. Whether America’s top colleges can rise to meet this challenge will define their legacy and the future of higher education itself.
