In the heart of Chile’s O’Higgins region, the El Teniente copper mine—one of the world’s largest and most storied underground mining operations—has become the center of a national reckoning on mining safety and global copper supply. The mine, operated by state-owned Codelco, abruptly halted operations for ten days following a tragic collapse on July 31, 2025, which claimed the lives of six subcontractors working on the new Andesita level. The incident, which has reverberated through Chile’s mining sector, led to an estimated production loss of US$300 million and 20,000 to 30,000 tons of fine copper, according to Codelco chairman Máximo Pacheco, as reported by BNamericas.
The collapse struck the underground sections of both the Andesita and Recursos Norte mines—critical areas within El Teniente’s ambitious expansion projects. These projects, which include Andesita, Andes Norte, and Diamante, are designed to extend the mine’s operational life by 43 years and boost its annual production capacity to a formidable 260,000 tons. But in the wake of the disaster, these plans are now under intense scrutiny, and the broader implications for Chile’s copper output are coming into sharper focus.
According to Carsten Fritsch, a commodity analyst at Commerzbank, Chile’s state copper producer’s estimate of production losses due to the tunnel collapse—echoing the 20,000 to 30,000 ton figure—could have ripple effects for global copper supply. As reported by FXStreet, the state copper commission Cochilco has already revised its 2025 copper production forecast downward, now expecting a modest 1.5% increase over last year to 5.58 million tons. This is a notable drop from the previously anticipated 3% growth, a revision not only triggered by the El Teniente incident but also by lower production in June at the world-leading Escondida and Collahuasi mines.
For the year ahead, the outlook remains uncertain. Cochilco projects a 3% increase in 2026, but from this reduced base—meaning production is now expected to reach only 5.75 million tons, a figure that sits 220,000 tons below earlier forecasts. The tightening supply, especially in a market where global demand for refined copper is expected to rise by 2.4% to 27 million tons in 2026 (with China alone accounting for 15.8 million tons), has industry watchers on edge. As Cochilco points out, smelting capacity growth, particularly in Asia, is outpacing the increase in mine supply, a dynamic likely to keep copper prices above their long-term averages.
Back at El Teniente, the tragedy has set off a flurry of investigations and regulatory soul-searching. Chile’s geology and mining service Sernageomin is leading the technical inquiry, with preliminary hypotheses suggesting that the rock falls in the Teniente 7 sector—encompassing both Recursos Norte and Andesita—were caused by a combination of seismic activity, the physical characteristics of the rock mass, and ongoing mining works. Andrés León, Sernageomin’s director, told the senate’s mining and energy committee that inspectors have been on site since the incident, working to determine the exact causes, verify fortifications, and develop a robust safety plan. Last year alone, Sernageomin carried out 231 inspections at El Teniente and had completed another 176 by the time of the accident.
While the affected sectors—Recursos Norte, Andesita, Andes Norte, and Diamante—remain paralyzed, other parts of the mine cautiously resumed operations on August 10, 2025. This restart came with a raft of new safety and operational protocols: adherence to panel caving extraction methods, strict controls on blasting, and the dissemination of enhanced safety practices among workers. Oversight bodies, including the prosecutor’s office, the investigative police, and the national labor department, have all launched their own probes into the origins of the collapse. Meanwhile, Codelco has committed to an internal assessment, daily reporting, and an assistance plan for the families and workers affected by the tragedy.
“It wasn’t discussed because this hadn’t happened before, and decree 132, which governs safety in open-pit and underground mining, didn’t foresee this type of incident either,” said Walter Muñoz, vice president of the mining chamber and founder of the national mining emergency corporation Conemin, in an interview with BNamericas. He noted that while a new national mining health and safety policy was approved just two weeks before the incident, it failed to address the unique risks of underground mining—a sector that is expanding rapidly in Chile as mines go deeper in search of new reserves.
Muñoz emphasized that the industry is now in a phase of reflection, with the incident serving as a wake-up call for stronger safety regulations. An amendment to decree 132 is currently in the works, supported by Sernageomin, the mining chamber, rescue teams, and other stakeholders through a broad cooperation agreement covering geological, safety, mining, and environmental issues. “However, an amendment to the decree is being processed, which is endorsed by Sernageomin, the mining chamber, my rescue team, and other entities through a broad cooperation agreement on geological, safety, mining and environmental issues,” Muñoz explained, underlining the collaborative approach being taken to address the regulatory gaps exposed by the tragedy.
The El Teniente incident has not only shaken the mining community but also prompted a broader conversation about how Chile—long the world’s top copper producer—can sustain its leadership amid mounting operational, geological, and regulatory challenges. With global copper demand surging, particularly for use in renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles, the stakes have never been higher. The production setbacks at El Teniente, Escondida, and Collahuasi underscore the fragility of supply chains and the importance of robust safety oversight in an industry that underpins much of the global economy.
As Chilean authorities, miners, and industry experts work to uncover the full causes of the collapse and implement new safety standards, the world will be watching closely. The outcome will not only determine the future of El Teniente and its workers but could also shape the trajectory of the global copper market in the critical years ahead.
