Floodwaters have surged through Egypt’s Nile Delta in early October 2025, submerging farmland and inundating homes in the northern provinces of Beheira and Menoufia. Videos circulating online show residents in Menoufia wading through waist-deep water, their homes partially submerged. In the town of Ashmoun, officials urged farmers and residents to urgently vacate their lands and homes as the threat escalated. The full extent of the damage remains unclear, with local officials unable to provide immediate comment, but the images and reports paint a picture of significant disruption for many communities living along the Nile’s floodplain.
Egyptian authorities have placed the blame squarely on Ethiopia, accusing their upstream neighbor of reckless and unilateral management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). According to statements from Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the dam’s operators engaged in “unregulated and chaotic” practices that led to a “man-made flood” downstream. The ministry’s statement, released on October 3, 2025, condemned Ethiopia’s management of the $5 billion mega dam, which is capable of holding back up to 74 billion cubic meters of water. Egypt argued that abrupt and massive water releases in September—following a period of rapid, uncoordinated filling—were responsible for the sudden surge in Nile water levels that overwhelmed both Egyptian and Sudanese flood defenses.
The controversy centers on the GERD’s inauguration on September 9, 2025. Egyptian officials allege that Ethiopian dam operators rushed to complete the filling process in an effort to stage a “media snapshot and political show” for the ceremony. The ministry detailed how, at the end of August, Ethiopia sharply reduced water releases from about 280 million cubic meters per day to just 110 million cubic meters on September 8. By the day after the inauguration, operators reportedly discharged an estimated 485 million cubic meters in a single day, with further surges peaking at 780 million cubic meters on September 27, before dropping to 380 million on September 30. In total, Egypt estimates that about 2 billion cubic meters of stored water were suddenly released, compounding the normal seasonal floodwaters and intensifying the impact downstream.
“The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation believes that what happened on the Blue Nile – the hastened, unlawful filling of the Ethiopian dam followed by the massive release of water immediately after the so-called inauguration ceremony — was not a necessary action, but rather reflects an unregulated and irresponsible management of a dam of this scale,” the ministry said in its official statement, as reported by Egypt Today.
For Ethiopia, the GERD represents a transformative national project. Inaugurated earlier this month, the dam is Africa’s largest and is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation capacity. Ethiopian officials have consistently argued that the dam will benefit the entire region by providing much-needed energy and by regulating the flow of the Blue Nile, which is notorious for its seasonal floods. In response to Egypt’s accusations, Ethiopia has denied any responsibility for the downstream flooding, insisting that the dam has in fact “reduced the catastrophic effect” of the floods that might otherwise have struck Sudan and Egypt. According to Arab News, Ethiopia maintains that its actions have mitigated, rather than exacerbated, the impact of this year’s unusually high water levels.
The dispute over the GERD is not new. Egypt and Sudan have long argued that Ethiopia’s unilateral filling and operation of the dam violate a colonial-era agreement on Nile water sharing. Both downstream countries have demanded a legally binding agreement to safeguard their water rights and to ensure the safety of their populations, especially during years of drought or excessive flooding. Egypt’s latest statement reiterated these concerns, warning that “the existence of a dam storing 74 billion cubic meters in violation of international law and without a binding legal agreement, combined with such chaotic and reckless management, represents a constant and ongoing threat to the downstream countries during both droughts and floods.”
The impact of this year’s flooding has not been limited to Egypt. Earlier in the week, Sudan also experienced significant inundation. According to the International Organization for Migration, about 100 households in Khartoum were flooded as of October 2, 2025. Sudanese authorities reported that floodwaters from the swollen Nile had encircled at least seven districts in the capital, forcing scores of villagers to evacuate. Operators of Sudan’s Roseires Dam, facing limited storage capacity, were compelled to pass most of the floodwaters through their gates to protect the dam’s safety. The convergence of unusually large volumes of water from the GERD, delayed and irregular rainfall in Sudan, and higher-than-normal flows from the White Nile led to a sudden surge in water levels, flooding large areas of farmland and numerous villages.
Back in Egypt, the government has sought to reassure the public that the situation is under control. The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation emphasized that the High Aswan Dam remains the country’s “primary safeguard” against Nile fluctuations and sudden floods. The dam’s storage and discharge capabilities, officials said, allow Egypt to manage water resources efficiently and protect lives and property even in the face of extreme events. The ministry also dismissed rumors circulating on social media that entire governorates had been submerged, clarifying that flooding was limited to certain areas of the floodplain—lands that have historically been inundated during periods of high water.
However, the crisis has also highlighted the risks associated with unauthorized construction and cultivation on the Nile’s floodplain. Many of the homes and farms affected by the flood were built illegally on silt deposits and sediments along the river’s canals. The ministry warned that such encroachments reduce the river’s discharge capacity, disrupt agricultural activity, and threaten the national economy as a whole. “Encroachments on the riverbed have serious technical consequences, foremost among them reducing the river’s discharge capacity, which is a vital source of life for the Egyptian people,” the ministry cautioned.
In anticipation of potential flooding, the Egyptian government issued directives to all governors in early September, urging them to alert citizens and encourage those living on the floodplain to take precautions to protect their property and crops. Despite these warnings, the suddenness and scale of the flood caught many by surprise, underscoring the challenges of managing a river system that spans multiple countries and is subject to both natural variability and human intervention.
The debate over the GERD’s management and its impact on downstream nations is far from resolved. As the waters recede, questions remain about how Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia can find common ground on the use of the Nile—a river that is both a lifeline and a source of recurring tension. For now, Egypt’s government insists that only a binding legal agreement and coordinated water management can prevent future disasters and ensure the security and prosperity of all who depend on the Nile.
As the region grapples with the aftermath of this year’s floods, the stakes for cooperation—and the risks of continued discord—have rarely been higher.