Britain’s prisons and streets are both bursting at the seams—and the two crises are colliding in ways that have left officials, charities, and the public scrambling for solutions. Over the past year, the UK has witnessed a dramatic surge in both mistaken prisoner releases and emergency early release schemes, with repercussions rippling into the country’s homelessness crisis and putting immense pressure on local councils and charities.
On Tuesday, November 12, 2025, Scotland will begin the emergency early release of nearly 1,000 inmates from its overcrowded jails. According to the BBC, this process—approved by the Scottish Parliament on November 4 by a narrow 66 to 51 vote—will unfold in waves until April 2026. Only those serving sentences of less than four years are eligible, while individuals convicted of sex offences or domestic abuse are strictly excluded. The move comes after Scotland’s prison population soared to a record 8,431 on November 5, far exceeding the system’s official capacity of 7,805 and forcing the government’s hand.
The Scottish government has argued that these releases are necessary to ensure the safety of both staff and inmates, as overcrowding has reached unsustainable levels. Yet, opposition parties have been quick to blame what they see as years of mismanagement by Scottish National Party ministers. Despite a previous wave of early releases earlier in 2025—when more than 300 prisoners, half of whom were serving time for violent offences, were freed—the numbers behind bars have continued to climb. The Scottish Prison Service has also resorted to managing over 120 custodial sentences through home detention curfews, a stopgap measure that only underscores the mounting strain on the system.
South of the border, England’s justice system is facing its own storm. Over the weekend before November 10, 2025, it emerged that four prisoners had been mistakenly released in error: two in June and two more in 2024. By Monday, government sources suggested that one had been returned to custody, only to later clarify that this individual had never actually been released in error but was miscounted in the chaos, The Telegraph reported. The confusion highlights the depth of the crisis, with Prime Minister’s spokesperson acknowledging, "These cases reflect the nature and scale of the prison crisis inherited by this Government. We have been clear that there is no overnight fix."
As of November 10, three prisoners remain at large after being wrongly freed, and the government has urged the public to assist police in their search. Among the most high-profile cases is Algerian national Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, 24, who was released by mistake from HMP Wandsworth on October 29 and arrested more than a week later. He had been serving a sentence for trespass with intent to steal and was in the process of deportation after overstaying his visa. Another, Billy Smith, 35, convicted of multiple fraud offences, turned himself in days after his accidental release. The blunders have intensified scrutiny on Justice Secretary David Lammy, who admitted, "There is a mountain to climb" in fixing the prisons system.
Meanwhile, the scale of mistaken releases is staggering: 262 inmates were let out in error in the year to March 2025, a 128% jump from the previous year, with 90 of those being violent or sex offenders. Prisons minister Lord James Timpson told the House of Lords on November 10 that the system is a patchwork of paperwork and digital records, with boxes of files "all over desks and on the floor." To address this, the government is sending in tech experts and considering the use of AI chatbots to cross-reference prisoner aliases and streamline the process. HMP Wandsworth, for instance, processes around 2,000 releases a year, compared to just two at HMP Gartree in Leicestershire—highlighting the scale and complexity of the challenge.
But the consequences of these policies and errors are not confined to prison walls. A damning new report led by Heriot-Watt University and highlighted by the Daily Mail reveals that almost 300,000 people in England are now facing the most acute forms of homelessness—a 21% increase since 2022 and a staggering 45% rise since 2012. Rough sleeping has spiked by 20% in just two years, with tent encampments now a common sight in some of London’s most exclusive neighborhoods, from Park Lane to Oxford Street. Local authorities, particularly in London and the north of England, are buckling under the pressure, with a 70% increase in people seeking homelessness assistance.
Charities and experts point to a combination of factors driving this surge. Labour’s early prisoner release scheme, which allows certain inmates to be freed on licence after serving just 40% of their term, is cited as a significant contributor. The report also blames a sharp rise in migrants being released from asylum accommodation, as the Home Office has halved the number of days most asylum seekers can remain in government housing. Homelessness stemming from evictions from asylum accommodation jumped by 37% in the past year, while those resulting from discharge from hospitals, prisons, and other institutions rose by 22%. "This is likely in part the result of the UK Government's early prison release scheme which has added pressure on council finances," the Heriot-Watt study found.
The financial burden on local councils is immense. Transport for London, for example, spent over £113,000 in just three months securing Park Lane to prevent rough sleepers from returning. In May, a court order was needed to remove a large encampment opposite the Hilton by Hyde Park Corner. The government has pledged £39 billion for social and affordable housing, but charities like Crisis warn that this is not enough. "No one should be forced to live in unsafe conditions, whether it's children in poor-quality B&Bs or people having to sleep on the streets, in tents or in squats," said Matt Downie, chief executive of Crisis. With winter approaching and council budgets stretched to breaking, he called for urgent action, including restoring housing benefit so it covers the real cost of rents and fixing gaps in support services for those leaving institutions.
In a sign of how dire the situation has become, Crisis has announced it will become a landlord for the first time in its 60-year history, as it can no longer secure enough social housing to help people off the streets. Professor Beth Watts-Cobbe from Heriot-Watt University called the findings "deeply concerning," pointing to the lack of affordable housing and insufficient welfare support as root causes. Councils, she warned, are "seriously struggling to fulfil their duties to support people who are homeless into safe and stable housing."
With the government facing calls to unfreeze the Local Housing Allowance and charities stepping into new roles, the coming months will test whether Britain can stem the tide of both prison releases and homelessness. For now, the crises remain deeply intertwined, and the search for solutions has never felt more urgent.
