Voters in the Netherlands are heading back to the polls on October 29, 2025, less than two years after the country’s last dramatic election. This time, the political landscape is as fractured and uncertain as ever, with the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders once again poised to finish first—yet facing almost insurmountable odds of forming a government.
Wilders, a polarizing figure who has spent more than two decades under police protection due to threats against his life, has become synonymous with anti-immigration rhetoric in Dutch politics. His party’s surprise victory in the previous election sent shockwaves through Europe, but the aftermath has been anything but stable. The government coalition he helped form, a four-party rightwing alliance, collapsed in June 2025 after Wilders withdrew his support over a contentious 10-point plan for a radical crackdown on refugees, according to The Guardian.
This abrupt exit left the Netherlands in political limbo, and the fallout has been severe. All major parties have since ruled out joining Wilders in any new coalition, citing both the extreme nature of his proposals and the chaos that followed his last stint in government. The Dutch system, which doles out one parliamentary seat for every 0.67% of the vote, makes single-party majorities nearly impossible. Instead, coalition cabinets—often with four or more parties—are the norm, and any new government must win a confidence vote in a parliament teeming with at least 15 parties.
Wilders, however, remains undeterred. He insists he wants to serve as prime minister at the helm of a minority government. In a recent rally in Volendam, a PVV stronghold, he warned other party leaders, “If the PVV is the biggest party on Wednesday and you leave us in the lurch and don’t even want to talk to us or rule with us, then democracy is dead in the Netherlands.” But as The Guardian reports, few seem willing to heed his call.
The campaign has been dominated by the issue of migration, with even moderate parties hardening their stances. Demonstrations have turned violent, including riots in The Hague and protests outside hostels for asylum seekers. Wilders’ central argument—that the Netherlands should refuse all asylum requests and, if necessary, use the army to guard its borders—has polarized the electorate. Yet, even if the PVV manages to finish first, it could lose up to a third of its current 37 seats and is likely to be shut out of government entirely.
The outgoing PVV-dominated coalition is widely seen by Dutch voters as one of the most ineffective in recent memory. It failed to deliver on its central promise of introducing Europe’s toughest immigration regime and was unable to tackle the country’s dire housing shortage—estimated at a staggering 400,000 homes for a population of 18 million. This sense of drift and disappointment has fueled voter dissatisfaction and opened the door for other parties to make gains.
Among those poised to benefit are the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) and the liberal-progressive D66. The CDA, led by Henri Bontenbal—a former sustainability adviser and potential future prime minister—has surged in the polls, possibly jumping from five to 22 seats. Bontenbal has called for a return to “hope and responsibility,” promising to restore “decency” to Dutch politics. He has also been unequivocal in his rejection of Wilders, stating, “Wilders does not defend democracy” and arguing that “winning the election is no guarantee you get to be in government.”
Rob Jetten, leader of D66, echoed this sentiment while campaigning at Amsterdam’s central station. “Over the past few years, we’ve heard a lot of negativism from Dutch politics,” Jetten told The Guardian. “But this is exactly what people are sick and tired of.” His party’s upbeat, optimistic message has resonated with younger voters, many of whom have borne the brunt of the housing crisis. Claartje Engelaar, a D66 campaigner, summed up the mood: “We live in a very rich country, we have a very good care system, a good pension system, good education, relative safety—we can do a lot in this country.”
The centre-left alliance of Green Left and the Labour Party (GL/PvdA), led by former European Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans, is also expected to improve its seat tally. Timmermans has been blunt in his assessment of the outgoing government: “The problem of this country is that in the last couple of years, nothing has happened. No problem was solved, every problem got even bigger. We need to get this country working again, put it on a social track.”
Meanwhile, the four parties of the outgoing cabinet—the PVV, the liberal-conservative VVD (now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius), the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and the centrist New Social Contract (NSC)—are all forecast to lose seats. The resulting fragmentation means that post-election coalition talks are expected to be even more complex and protracted than usual. With 16 parties predicted to win seats, but only six likely to secure more than 10 each, the most probable outcome is a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or the centre-right, but including parties from both ends of the spectrum.
Yet, whatever the new government’s makeup, it will have to act fast. Despite the campaign’s focus on migration, polls consistently show that voters are most concerned about the housing crisis. Unless the next coalition can deliver tangible results on housing—and address other pressing issues like soaring healthcare costs—analysts warn that any return to a more “commonsense” style of government could be short-lived.
Léonie de Jong, a far-right expert at the University of Tübingen, observed, “There is a lot of voter dissatisfaction with many other issues as well. And Wilders is someone who can activate this dissatisfaction, and convert it into votes.”
As Dutch voters prepare for yet another trip to the ballot box, the stakes could hardly be higher. The outcome of this election, and the coalition wrangling that will follow, will shape the Netherlands’ approach to migration, housing, and healthcare for years to come. For now, all eyes are on The Hague, where the next chapter of Dutch politics is about to unfold.
