Voters in the Netherlands are heading to the polls once again, marking the fourth general election in less than a decade, after a dramatic collapse of the country’s right-wing government earlier this year. The snap election, set for October 29, 2025, was triggered by anti-Islam lawmaker Geert Wilders, whose Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew its ministers from the ruling coalition over a heated dispute on asylum law and migration policy, according to the Associated Press.
Wilders, a polarizing figure who has lived under constant protection for over two decades due to death threats, has made migration the centerpiece of his campaign—so much so that even centrist parties have been drawn rightward in response to the surging popularity of his rhetoric. His 10-point plan calls for a total halt to asylum-seekers entering the Netherlands, including turning people back at the borders with Belgium and Germany. “The Netherlands has become one big asylum-seekers center,” Wilders declared during a televised debate, facing criticism for both his hardline stance and for what opponents called the incompetence of his previous ministers.
The outgoing government, led by Dick Schoof—a career civil servant hand-picked by Wilders—earned the dubious distinction of being one of the shortest-lived in modern Dutch history. It was notorious for infighting and, ultimately, its inability to resolve the migration issue that has come to dominate Dutch politics. As De Volkskrant noted, “After a year and a half of experimenting with the lame-duck Dick Schoof, we can safely conclude that a prime minister with his own political profile and a solid electoral mandate—larger than Wilders’—is crucial for the effectiveness of a new government and the country’s image abroad.”
Polls suggest that Wilders’ PVV is poised to become the strongest party again, as it did in the late 2023 election when it secured 37 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. But there’s a catch: several major parties have already ruled out entering a coalition with Wilders, making it highly unlikely that he’ll be able to form a majority government. Henri Bontenbal, leader of the center-right Christian Democrats, made his party’s position clear, stating that Wilders’ party and the far-right Forum for Democracy “do not defend democracy, and it’s very important to defend democracy in these days.”
This widespread reluctance to work with Wilders is not just a matter of political strategy but, as commentators in De Volkskrant argue, a legitimate democratic stance: “Every seat in parliament carries the same weight. ... Even if Wilders’ party becomes the largest faction on Wednesday, but a large majority refuses to work with him, that stance would be completely legitimate in democratic terms.”
Wilders’ influence, however, extends far beyond his own party. As Le Soir observed, he has “succeeded in spreading his ideas beyond his own voter base. Under ‘his’ government, migration issues have dominated the political agenda and had a lasting impact on Dutch politics. Today, most parties are promising to limit immigration in their election campaigns.” The center-left bloc, led by former European Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans, is campaigning on a promise to build 100,000 new homes a year to address the chronic shortage of affordable housing—another issue that’s taken center stage alongside migration and healthcare costs.
Yet, other pressing concerns such as the climate crisis and defense spending have receded into the background, even as Europe as a whole ramps up military readiness in response to Russian aggression. The shift in priorities has not gone unnoticed. Léonie de Jonge, a professor specializing in far-right extremism at the University of Tübingen, commented to AP, “We are definitely seeing a steady and global rise of the far right. It’s a global phenomenon, and the Netherlands is not immune to that.”
The political climate has grown increasingly tense, with anti-immigrant protests sometimes turning violent. Recent events in The Hague included rioting, the torching of a police car, and attacks on centrist party headquarters. Dutch King Willem-Alexander, in a speech crafted by the outgoing government, called for a return to the Dutch tradition of compromise amid polarization, warning that the nation’s stability is at stake.
For many Dutch citizens, the constant political turmoil is wearing thin. Voter Herman de Jong, speaking to the Associated Press while visiting a market in Rotterdam, voiced a sentiment echoed by many: “We need stability, calmness, unity, something like that. I think the constant arguing between the parties isn’t good for the people.”
Henri Bontenbal, whose Christian Democrats are polling strongly after being left out of the last coalition, is campaigning on a pledge to restore decency and responsibility to Dutch politics. “What we have seen is two years of politics of division and chaos. What we want ... to present is a politics of hope and responsibility,” Bontenbal told the Associated Press during a campaign stop.
Frans Timmermans, leading the center-left Green Left-Labor alliance, is equally critical of the status quo. “The problem of this country is that in the last couple of years nothing has happened,” he told AP. “No problem was solved, every problem got even bigger. So what we need to do is ... get this country working again and put this country on a social track.”
Wilders’ effect on Dutch politics is not just a matter of policy but of tone and discourse. According to political commentator Tom-Jan Meeus in NRC, “The whole package—the cheering on of the autocrat Orbán, the normalisation of the Great Replacement [conspiracy] theory, the undermining of parliament, the calls for resistance, the repetition of propaganda—has contributed to the destabilisation of democracy since the end of 2015. ... It’s one of the big questions of 2025: will the centrist parties succeed in fending off Wilders’ attack on liberal democracy? The attack he began in 2015 and has continued ever since with the discipline of an accomplished propagandist?”
With coalition talks after the election expected to be long and fraught, the Dutch may be in for months of negotiation before a new government emerges. University of Amsterdam professor Claes de Vreese told AP that if Wilders cannot form a majority coalition, “then a minority Cabinet could be an option. But that is a construction that hardly exists in the Dutch political tradition.” If that fails, “historically, the biggest party loses the right to form a coalition and it goes to the second-placed party. This process is more based on conventions and history than a ready-made plan.”
As the Netherlands prepares to vote, the stakes could hardly be higher. The outcome will not just determine the next government, but also the direction of Dutch democracy itself—caught, as it is, between calls for stability and the disruptive energy of a far-right movement that’s shifted the entire political landscape.
