As the Netherlands heads toward its general election on October 29, 2025, the nation finds itself at a crossroads, with debates over migration and a severe housing shortage dominating the political landscape. The air is thick with anticipation and anxiety, as voters prepare to decide the future of all 150 seats in the House of Representatives. The choices they make are expected to reverberate not just within Dutch borders, but throughout the European Union.
This election cycle, the conversation has become intensely polarized, reflecting deep divisions in Dutch society. For many, like Palwasha Hamzad, an Afghan-born educator and municipal representative in Haarlem, the most pressing issue is not the influx of newcomers but the chronic lack of affordable housing. "We see that the free market has had too much influence, and social provisions have been more and more eroded," Hamzad told the Associated Press, emphasizing that the housing crisis stems from years of right-leaning coalitions and not from recent migrants. She points to the growing number of people forced to sleep in cars and families waiting years for social housing as evidence that the real crisis is in construction, not immigration.
Yet, for others, like Daniëlle Vergauwen, who owns a clothing store in the rural village of Sint Willebrord, the narrative is different. Her town, a stronghold for the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), gave nearly three out of every four votes to Geert Wilders’ party in the last election. "We’re more for our own people," Vergauwen said, echoing a sentiment that has gained traction across parts of the country. "Of course, we grant them more than we grant the foreigners who come in." She, like Wilders, believes that the housing crisis is exacerbated by refugees receiving preferential treatment, leaving Dutch families behind. "But then you’ll end up with your own children no longer being able to have a home. And I would find that very sad," she explained.
Geert Wilders, the veteran anti-Islam politician and leader of the PVV, has capitalized on these concerns. His party’s manifesto is blunt: “We have too many foreigners, too many asylum-seekers, too much Islam and far too many asylum-seeker centers.” Wilders blames what he calls the “open-borders policy” of his rivals for “totally destroying our country.” His 2025 campaign centers on a “total halt” to asylum seekers, a stance that the Dutch Order of Lawyers warns would breach international treaties. Wilders’ rhetoric, often incendiary, has fueled both support and backlash. Violent protests against new asylum-seeker centers have broken out in recent months, with demonstrators lighting flares and, at times, displaying a tricolor flag linked to Dutch Nazi sympathizers from World War II. Wilders has publicly condemned the violence, but his messaging undeniably keeps migration at the forefront of the national debate.
According to official Dutch government statistics, migration in 2024 reached 316,000—a decline of 19,000 from the previous year in a country of 18 million. About 40% of migrants came from Europe, nearly half from other parts of the world, and roughly one in ten were Dutch nationals returning from overseas. Despite these figures, public frustration over the perceived strain on public services and social cohesion remains high, with many parties scrambling to present the most credible plan for limiting new arrivals.
The housing crisis, meanwhile, is impossible to ignore. Years of inadequate construction and a rapidly growing population have led to acute shortages, making it nearly impossible for first-time buyers and low-to-middle-income earners to find affordable homes. The Dutch refugee council firmly rejects Wilders’ argument that refugees are to blame, stating instead that “there are simply not enough houses being built.” This view is echoed by many on the center-left, who argue that focusing on migration distracts from the urgent need to boost housing supply and reform the rental market.
Parties across the political spectrum have responded with ambitious—sometimes conflicting—plans to address the crisis. Some advocate for aggressive construction targets and tighter rent controls, while others insist that reducing migration is the only way to ease the pressure on limited housing stock. The outcome of the election will almost certainly determine the scale and speed of government intervention in the private rental and social housing sectors.
Analysts suggest that the PVV’s strong performance in pre-election polls points toward a deeply fragmented parliament. This scenario would make coalition formation a complex and potentially drawn-out process. If Wilders’ party secures the most votes, mainstream parties will face a stark choice: exclude him and attempt to build a fragile, broad-based coalition, or negotiate with him—potentially granting the far-right significant influence over migration policy for years to come. Either path could fundamentally shift the direction of Dutch politics.
Léonie de Jonge, Professor of Far-Right Extremism at the University of Tübingen, told the Associated Press that Wilders “has been super successful in politicizing immigration as a cultural threat to the homogeneity of the Netherlands.” She notes that keeping migration high on the political agenda “really helps to explain why the PVV is so successful.” However, de Jonge also points out that Wilders’ support could falter if voters feel he has failed to deliver on his promises since the 2023 election.
For many Dutch citizens, the stakes of this election go beyond immediate concerns. The results are expected to shape not only domestic policy but also the Netherlands’ future stance within the European Union. Some parties warn that a hardline shift on migration could isolate the country or prompt tensions with EU partners, while others argue that reclaiming “Dutch sovereignty” is essential to restoring public trust in government and safeguarding national identity.
Despite the heated rhetoric and polarized atmosphere, there are those who remain hopeful for a more inclusive future. Hamzad, who fled Kabul as a child and now calls Haarlem home, says she is optimistic that the election will bring about a change in political direction. “It’s my life and my future,” she said. “My commitment is here in the Netherlands.”
This election, with its competing narratives and high stakes, is set to leave a lasting mark on the Dutch political landscape. Voters will soon decide which vision of the Netherlands will prevail—and whether the country will turn inward or embrace a broader, more inclusive path forward.
