With Florida’s 2026 legislative session on the horizon, Governor Ron DeSantis is turning up the heat on state lawmakers, signaling a renewed push for congressional redistricting that could reshape the state’s political landscape. The governor’s terse social media message—“Stay tuned”—posted on November 14, 2025, left little doubt about his expectations: he wants a new congressional map, and he wants it soon.
This public nudge came in direct response to remarks by House Speaker Daniel Perez, who told POLITICO and other outlets that redistricting is “not planned” and that “we haven’t had that discussion yet.” Perez’s comments, echoing a sense of legislative caution, have done little to deter DeSantis. The governor has repeatedly asserted that he expects redistricting “this spring,” just as the 2026 legislative session convenes in January.
Florida’s current congressional map, drawn by DeSantis’s office and pushed through the legislature after he rejected an earlier version, has already given Republicans a commanding 20-8 advantage in the U.S. House delegation. But DeSantis and other state GOP leaders believe there’s room for even more Republican gains. At an August press conference, DeSantis speculated that Florida could have “29, 30, 31, maybe” congressional seats—up from the current 28—if the state’s population were counted differently. He’s argued, without providing evidence, that the Biden administration’s census “gypped” Florida out of additional seats by including undocumented immigrants in other states’ counts, thereby favoring “blue states.”
Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power has echoed this optimism, suggesting the state could pick up as many as five more seats if the lines are redrawn. “Florida is ruby red and will remain so as the Florida Democrats have a new boss in Mamdani,” Power said, referencing the recent election of Zohran Mamdani as New York City’s mayor, a Democratic Socialist whose win was fueled by record turnout among young voters.
But the path forward is far from straightforward. The Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting, established by Speaker Perez, has yet to meet or schedule any hearings. And while Florida Republicans are confident in their voter registration edge—now nearly 1.4 million more registered Republicans than Democrats statewide—recent election results elsewhere have exposed vulnerabilities that could complicate the GOP’s plans.
In November, Democrats scored high-profile victories in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, both powered in part by strong Hispanic turnout. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger captured 67% of Hispanic voters; in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill won with 68% of the Hispanic vote, according to exit polls. Even in Florida’s most Hispanic county, Miami-Dade, Democrat Eileen Higgins led the non-partisan mayoral race, advancing to a runoff against DeSantis-endorsed Republican Emilio Gonzalez.
These results have rattled some Florida Republicans. Miami U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar, a Republican, warned, “The Hispanic vote is not guaranteed. Hispanics married President Trump, but they are only dating the GOP.” Salazar, speaking from Little Havana, added, “If the GOP does not deliver, we will lose the Hispanic vote all over the country.” She pointed to frustration with the economy and the impact of Trump’s hardline immigration policies as reasons for Hispanic voters’ shifting allegiances. Salazar is now backing the Dignity Act, a bipartisan immigration proposal offering protections for undocumented immigrants living in the country since 2021, in hopes of shoring up GOP support among Hispanics.
The stakes for Republicans are high. With Democrats just three seats away from reclaiming control of the U.S. House, both parties are turning to redistricting as a tool to tilt the balance. The Associated Press noted that Trump’s call for mid-decade redistricting has set off a wave of map-drawing in Republican- and Democratic-controlled states alike. Texas, led by Governor Greg Abbott, was the first to act, signing a new House map in August that could net Republicans five additional seats—though legal challenges are already underway. Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio have followed suit, each at various stages of approving new maps that could boost GOP fortunes.
Democratic-led states are also responding. California, under Governor Gavin Newsom, recently approved a new House map that could swing five seats to Democrats, bypassing the state’s independent commission. The U.S. Department of Justice has joined a Republican lawsuit challenging the new California districts, alleging that race was the primary consideration—a charge DeSantis seized on in his own commentary. “Courts could nix the CA map on racial gerrymandering grounds, but I bet CA will just say the intent was to partisan gerrymander,” DeSantis posted online, highlighting the legal and political tug-of-war now playing out across the country.
Meanwhile, Maryland’s Governor Wes Moore has announced plans for an advisory commission to redraw congressional maps to “better reflect voter preferences,” and Virginia recently approved a constitutional amendment giving the governor authority over redistricting, following Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s gubernatorial win.
But not every Republican state is falling in line with Trump and DeSantis’s aggressive redistricting push. Indiana’s GOP-controlled Senate, after months of White House pressure and lobbying from Vice President JD Vance, announced on November 14 that it would not reconvene to vote on new maps, citing insufficient support. “There are not enough votes to move that idea forward, and the Senate will not reconvene in December,” Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray said. Some Indiana Republicans have voiced ethical concerns about gerrymandering or worry about political backlash.
In Florida, the risks of redistricting are not lost on political observers. The state’s Fair Districts constitutional amendments prohibit drawing boundaries to intentionally help or hurt a party or candidate. But with a conservative U.S. Supreme Court potentially poised to limit the use of race-based districts, some Republicans see an opening to redraw lines in their favor. Still, the process could backfire. Weakening Democratic districts by adding more Republican voters means GOP districts must absorb more Democrats—potentially making them more competitive and leaving some Republican incumbents vulnerable.
“Every elected official wants a safe district,” noted Susan MacManus, a retired University of South Florida political scientist. “Obviously, some are going to be more threatened and must raise more money when that’s not easy to do. They’re the ones who are going to be complaining.”
Among the Democrats most at risk if new maps are drawn: U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Parkland, whose district supported Kamala Harris by just 2% over Trump in 2024; Rep. Darren Soto of Central Florida; and Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa. But any move to make their districts more Republican-friendly would require shifting GOP voters from neighboring districts, possibly endangering other Republican incumbents.
As the 2026 session approaches, Florida’s redistricting debate is set to become a defining battle—not just for the state, but for the nation’s political future. With both parties maneuvering for advantage and shifting voter loyalties adding uncertainty, the only sure thing is that the fight over Florida’s congressional map is far from over.
