On October 3 and 4, 2025, the Czech Republic stood at a political crossroads as voters headed to the polls for a highly anticipated general election. With the war in Ukraine grinding into its fourth year and Europe’s political landscape in flux, the stakes could hardly have been higher. At the center of the contest was Andrej Babis, the billionaire businessman and former prime minister, who was widely expected to top the polls but faced an uphill battle in forming a government. The election’s outcome, many observers agreed, would have profound implications not only for Czechia’s internal direction but also for its critical support of Ukraine and its standing in the European Union and NATO.
Babis, 71, is no stranger to controversy or the political spotlight. Often compared to Donald Trump for his populist rhetoric, sprawling business empire, and signature red “Strong Czechia” cap, Babis led the right-wing ANO party into the election with a promise to put “Czechs first.” As reported by AFP and Sky News, his campaign focused on halting military aid to Ukraine and redirecting those resources to support Czech citizens. “Describing himself as a ‘peacemonger’ calling for a truce in Ukraine, Babis has vowed a ‘Czechs first’ approach—echoing US President Donald Trump,” France24 noted.
This message resonated with a significant portion of the electorate. A June 2025 poll by the Czech research institute STEM found just under half of respondents believed the Czech Republic’s military aid to Ukraine was “too large.” Babis seized on this sentiment, repeatedly criticizing the government’s military aid scheme as “overpriced” and “untransparent,” and suggesting that NATO should take over its management. The Czech Ministry of Defence, however, pushed back, with an AMOS spokesperson emphasizing, “The system of military-technical assistance to Ukraine has been thoroughly presented to our Western partners, who have expressed their clear and continuous support.”
The outgoing government, led by center-right Prime Minister Petr Fiala, had made support for Ukraine a cornerstone of its foreign policy. Under Fiala, Czechia played a pivotal role in raising funds among NATO allies to supply Ukraine with ammunition and military equipment. In 2024 alone, the Czech-led scheme delivered 1.5 million artillery shells to Ukraine from more than a dozen countries, with expectations to exceed 1.8 million by the end of 2025. Fiala’s coalition was firmly pro-Western, supporting EU and NATO initiatives and warning that a reversal could mean a “U-turn” in the country’s political orientation.
But for many Czechs, the government’s focus on Ukraine came at a domestic cost. Critics accused Fiala’s administration of neglecting problems at home, particularly as the country grappled with rising energy prices and a lingering cost-of-living crisis. Babis’s ANO party pledged to cap energy prices and oppose EU climate and migration pacts—policies that, while popular among some voters, drew warnings from critics about the risk of ballooning national debt and deeper economic woes.
The campaign was heated, with thousands protesting in Prague’s Old Town Square on September 27, 2025, warning that the populist surge could threaten the country’s democratic direction. The anti-extremist movement A Million Moments for Democracy organized the rally, where speakers highlighted fears of a slide toward illiberalism and closer ties with EU “mavericks” like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico—both of whom have maintained relations with Moscow despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Babis’s path to power, however, was anything but straightforward. While his ANO party led in the polls with support exceeding 30 percent, the Czech parliament’s 200-seat Chamber of Deputies requires 101 seats for a majority. Opposition parties, wary of Babis’s populist and anti-EU rhetoric, had ruled out working with ANO, potentially forcing Babis to seek coalition partners among smaller, more radical groups. Notably, the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, projected to win around 12 percent of the vote, and the hard-left Stacilo, both of which harbor anti-NATO and anti-EU sentiments, were floated as possible partners.
The Czech constitution adds another wrinkle: President Petr Pavel, a retired NATO general, has the authority to appoint the prime minister and cabinet. Pavel made clear he would refuse to appoint ministers pushing anti-EU and anti-NATO agendas and reaffirmed support for Czech military aid to Ukraine. This stance could complicate any attempt by Babis to form a government with the support of hard-right or hard-left parties.
For many voters, the election was about more than personalities or party platforms—it was a referendum on the country’s future direction. As Prime Minister Fiala put it after casting his ballot in Brno, “It will decide whether we head into the past or into the future, whether our path goes east or west.” Some, like Prague librarian Magdalena Servitova, expressed concern over a possible “U-turn” in foreign policy. “I would like our policy vis-a-vis Ukraine to continue as well, we should not turn our backs on Ukraine,” she told AFP.
Babis, for his part, remained pragmatic. Analysts like Charles University’s Josef Mlejnek suggested that while Babis’s rhetoric was combative, his main goal was to return to the prime minister’s office. “Babis is a pragmatic businessman and the only thing he cares about is being prime minister,” Mlejnek told AFP. Dr. Sean Hanley of UCL echoed this view, telling Sky News that Babis’s threats to end military aid to Ukraine amounted to “political theatre.” Hanley predicted that, if victorious, Babis would likely repackage the Czech role in Ukraine as a NATO initiative and adopt a lower profile, rather than break entirely from Western allies.
The election also unfolded against a backdrop of heightened concerns about disinformation and foreign interference. According to AFP, the European Commission held an emergency meeting with TikTok on October 2, 2025, after analysts reported that Czech-language accounts on the platform were systematically spreading pro-Russian propaganda. TikTok responded by removing several bots, but the episode underscored the vulnerability of European democracies to malign influence, especially during pivotal elections.
As polls closed and vote counting began, the Czech Republic—and its Western partners—waited anxiously for the results. Would the country maintain its course as a staunch supporter of Ukraine and a reliable member of the EU and NATO? Or would it pivot toward a more inward-looking, populist agenda with unpredictable consequences for the region’s security and stability?
The answer, it seemed, would depend not only on the final tally but on the complex negotiations and political maneuvering sure to follow. What was certain, as the dust settled, was that the Czech election had become a bellwether for the broader tensions shaping Europe in an era of war, economic uncertainty, and shifting alliances.