Global commodity markets are facing a seismic shift in 2025, as geopolitical tensions, technological innovation, and the green energy transition converge to reshape the landscape for critical minerals. From the boardrooms of mining companies to the trading floors of London and Shanghai, the stakes have never been higher. At the center of this transformation are metals like tungsten, molybdenum, copper, nickel, and silver—each playing a pivotal role in powering the industries of tomorrow and securing the strategic interests of nations.
Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) has emerged as a standout player in this evolving drama. In a bold move coinciding with Donald Trump's inauguration, the company relocated its headquarters from Canada to the United States in early 2025. According to Apaton Finance, this strategic shift grants Almonty crucial access to U.S. funding programs and positions it as a trusted partner for American defense projects—a timely response to China's tightening grip on strategic metal exports. With a planned NASDAQ listing on the horizon, Almonty is poised to significantly boost its visibility among investors and policymakers alike.
The company’s ambitions are underpinned by a series of headline-grabbing deals. At the end of January, Almonty announced a long-term supply agreement with SeAH Group, a major supplier to the aerospace industry, including SpaceX. Under this contract, Almonty will deliver 5,600 tons of molybdenum annually starting in 2026 at a guaranteed minimum price of $19 per pound. This arrangement is set to generate at least $234 million in fixed annual revenue, with the molybdenum sourced from the company’s flagship Sangdong property in South Korea.
The Sangdong mine itself, one of the world’s largest tungsten deposits outside China, is preparing to launch production in the summer of 2025. Initial output is expected at 2,300 tons per year, with plans to double to 4,600 tons within a year. When fully operational, Sangdong could account for up to 40% of non-Chinese global tungsten production. With a mine life exceeding 90 years and estimated resources of 50 million tons at an average tungsten grade of 0.43%, the site is a cornerstone of Almonty’s growth strategy.
Operationally, Almonty’s quarterly results reveal a company on solid footing. Revenue rose by 1.3% to CAD 7.9 million, buoyed by stable contracts. Mining operating results jumped by 24.1% to CAD 0.75 million, thanks in part to reliable output from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. While a reported loss of CAD 34.6 million might raise eyebrows, Apaton Finance clarifies that this figure stems from a non-cash accounting effect tied to option liabilities and does not impact Almonty's cash reserves, which remain robust at around CAD 17 million.
Military demand is also playing a key role in Almonty's ascent. In May 2025, the company inked an exclusive three-year purchase agreement with Tungsten Parts Wyoming and Israeli processor Metal Tech. The deal guarantees delivery of at least 40 metric tons of tungsten oxide per month for military applications, combining a price floor with unlimited upside potential in rising markets. The contract will activate with the first shipment, providing long-term sales stability amid rising global defense spending.
Almonty’s leadership team has been bolstered by the addition of high-profile figures. In March, General Gustave F. Perna joined the board, bringing a wealth of expertise in logistics and deep connections to the U.S. Army. May saw Almonty’s invitation to the Critical Minerals Forum (CMF), an initiative led by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), further cementing its systemic importance. CEO Lewis Black remarked, “CMF also facilitates the collaboration necessary for increased and reliable production of critical minerals by bringing together leading supply chain companies, investors, and government institutions.” On June 2, Alan Estevez, former Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, was appointed to the board, enhancing the company's procurement and supply chain management capabilities. Black commented, “Alan’s first-hand experience in procurement, contracting, and supply chain management will be particularly relevant as we expand our position as a key allied supplier of tungsten.”
While Almonty’s focus is shifting westward, its European operations remain vital. The Panasqueira mine in Portugal has delivered stable cash flows for over a century, while Los Santos in Spain and Valtreixal offer low-cost expansion opportunities. This geographic diversification allows Almonty to remain agile in a market still dominated by China.
Analysts are taking notice. Sphene Capital has set a price target of CAD 5.40 per share, while GBC Research is more conservative at CAD 4.20, compared to a current trading price of CAD 2.60. The anticipated start of Sangdong production, high-margin processing activities, and the company’s integration into U.S. security frameworks are all seen as drivers of significant value potential. For investors betting on the reshaping of global commodity flows, Almonty presents a rare opportunity.
Yet, the story of metals in 2025 extends far beyond tungsten. According to The Newsletter, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange climbed to $9,840.5 per metric ton in August, buoyed by a rebound in Chinese export orders. Other metals—aluminum, nickel, lead, tin, and zinc—also saw gains, though a strong U.S. dollar (hovering near 98.3 on the index) tempered further increases. Shanghai copper contracts, meanwhile, dipped to 79,340 yuan per ton, underscoring how currency fluctuations and local market dynamics are creating a patchwork of outcomes across regions.
Indonesia is also making waves. Its sovereign fund Danantara, backed by $8.3 billion, has partnered with China’s GEM to launch a major nickel processing hub. This move cements Indonesia’s leadership in global nickel supply and injects fresh momentum into a market increasingly driven by the needs of electric vehicles and technology. As international alliances form around battery metals, the long-term pricing and strategic balance of power in the green economy are being recalibrated.
Silver, too, is at a crossroads. As reported by Ainvest, the metal’s market is now shaped by geopolitical fragmentation and the accelerating shift to renewable energy. The U.S.-China rivalry over critical minerals has led to export restrictions and supply chain disruptions, pushing the Biden administration to promote a national critical minerals stockpile and foreshadowing further protectionist policies. Meanwhile, the Middle East is flexing its muscles, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia investing heavily in African copper and nickel projects and in Vale Base Metals, respectively.
Industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly from solar photovoltaic (PV) technology and electric vehicles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that solar PV alone will consume over 273 million ounces of silver annually by 2025—nearly one-fifth of total demand. With solar capacity growing at a 17% annualized rate and electric vehicles expected to reach 40% of global automotive output by 2030, silver’s role in the energy transition is becoming indispensable.
Yet, supply constraints persist. Over 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, limiting the industry’s ability to ramp up output. With mine production projected to rise just 2% in 2025 and recycling unable to bridge the gap, a structural deficit of 149 million ounces is expected—the fifth consecutive annual shortfall. Silver prices have surged 30% year-to-date, hitting $38.55 per ounce in August, and analysts at JPMorgan and Saxo Bank predict they could test $40–$50 as the deficit deepens.
For investors and policymakers alike, the message is clear: the era of easy access to critical minerals is over. As supply chains fragment and demand for green technologies soars, companies like Almonty Industries and nations investing in strategic metals are carving out new roles in a rapidly changing global order. The next chapter in the story of critical minerals is just beginning, and those who adapt fastest will shape the future of industry, security, and sustainability.
