As Americans prepared for the Labor Day weekend, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) delivered sobering news: COVID-19 is once again surging across the United States, with a late-summer spike that has health officials on high alert. The latest CDC data, released on August 29, 2025, revealed a nationwide test positivity rate of 11.2 percent for the week ending August 23—up from 10.2 percent the previous week and signaling a steady upward climb just as millions gear up for travel and gatherings.
Nearly half the country is now facing test positivity rates of at least 10 percent, according to the CDC. The agency’s figures underscore that this isn’t just a blip or a localized outbreak. Emergency room visits for COVID-19 have ticked up as well, reaching 1.5 percent of all ER visits for the week ending August 23, up from 1.3 percent the prior week. And while the percentage of deaths attributed to COVID-19 has remained steady at 0.5 percent of all U.S. fatalities, hospitalizations are on the rise, climbing to 1.7 per 100,000 people for the week ending August 9, compared to 1.3 the week before. It’s a pattern that has public health experts concerned about what’s to come as the summer winds down and people return to school and work.
The surge is not evenly distributed. According to CDC data and reporting by multiple outlets, the spike is especially pronounced in a cluster of five states: Arkansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Texas. In these states, a staggering 15 percent of COVID-19 tests are coming back positive. Emergency room data from Arkansas, for example, shows clear signs of an emerging late-summer spike, with the CDC confirming the trend as of August 31. The Western half of the country is also feeling the heat, with at least a dozen states reporting test positivity rates hovering near 10 percent.
But the numbers might only tell part of the story. Health experts warn that the actual number of cases is likely much higher than official tallies suggest. Many people with mild symptoms are skipping formal lab tests in favor of at-home testing—or simply ignoring symptoms altogether. This means that the official data may significantly underestimate the true scale of the outbreak.
To get a clearer picture of community transmission, experts are now turning to an unlikely source: wastewater. According to the CDC, wastewater monitoring has become a critical tool for tracking the virus, often detecting increases in community spread days before clinical testing does. Recent wastewater data has flagged Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas, and Utah as states experiencing “very high” levels of virus activity. This early warning system is helping health officials stay a step ahead, but it also paints a picture of a virus that is spreading rapidly and widely.
What’s driving this latest surge? The CDC points to several factors, chief among them the spread of a new variant known as Stratus (also called XFG in some regions). The World Health Organization has designated Stratus as a “variant under monitoring,” noting its rapid transmission but not necessarily increased severity. In Ireland, for example, Stratus accounted for 87.5 percent of new cases by late August—up from just 33 percent six weeks earlier—and was behind a dramatic spike in infections. In the U.S., the variant’s high transmissibility is believed to be playing a major role in the current outbreak.
Medical professionals are also observing subtle shifts in the way COVID-19 presents itself. Dr. Kaywaan Khan, a Harley Street general practitioner, told Cosmopolitan UK that “one of the most noticeable symptoms of the Stratus variant is hoarseness, which includes a scratchy or raspy voice.” Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California San Francisco, noted to SFGATE that “there’s a little bit more sore throats with some people. Particularly in those who are older, who didn’t get vaccinated last year. It’s more transmissible, so we expect that a lot of people will get it. Particularly with kids going back to school, a sniffle is likely going to be Covid.” The variant also brings a wider range of symptoms, including congestion and gastrointestinal issues, though most cases remain mild.
Public health guidelines remain largely unchanged, at least in Ireland, where officials continue to advise anyone with symptoms to stay home until 48 hours after those symptoms have mostly or completely subsided and to avoid contact with high-risk individuals. In the U.S., recommendations vary by state and locality, but the message from health officials is clear: vigilance is still needed, especially as immunity from last fall’s vaccinations may be waning. Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, a senior epidemiologist at Washington University, has indicated that the recent rise in cases is in part due to this waning immunity, combined with increased travel and communal gatherings during the summer months.
The CDC’s response to the surge has been complicated by internal turmoil. In a striking administrative shake-up, the agency’s Director was ousted just weeks into her tenure, and three other high-ranking officials resigned. According to reporting, these departures have raised questions about the CDC’s stability and effectiveness at a time when clear, consistent public health leadership is needed most. Some former health officials have accused former President Donald Trump of having “weaponized” public health, further politicizing the agency’s work and contributing to the resignations.
On the policy front, there is more uncertainty. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the current U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, is reportedly planning a ban on COVID-19 vaccination—a move that has drawn intense scrutiny from the medical community and public health advocates, who warn of the potential health risks. The CDC is expected to convene a panel next month to discuss vaccine accessibility and affordability, a meeting that will be closely watched as the nation grapples with the new surge.
For now, the data is clear: COVID-19 is not done with the United States, and the coming weeks will test the resilience of both the public health system and the broader community. As the country heads into the fall, with schools reopening and travel ramping up, officials are urging Americans to stay alert, get tested if symptomatic, and keep an eye on evolving guidance. The story of this surge is still unfolding, and its outcome may depend as much on leadership and communication as on the virus itself.
