In a year marked by global turbulence and rising climate anxiety, the 2025 United Nations climate conference—COP30—unfurled in Belém, Brazil, with both high hopes and simmering tensions. The event, which closed on Saturday, November 22, was billed as a turning point: a chance for the world to move from endless negotiation to concrete action against climate change. Yet as the final gavel fell, the mood was anything but triumphant. Instead, COP30 ended with a mix of modest progress, bitter disputes, and a lingering sense of unfinished business.
From the outset, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva set an ambitious tone. Hosting the conference in Belém, perched at the edge of the Amazon rainforest, was a bold move—one meant to draw attention to the planet’s most vital ecosystem and the Indigenous peoples who both suffer from and help solve the climate crisis. As reported by The Associated Press, Lula used his opening speech on November 7 to declare, “Earth can no longer sustain the development model based on the intensive use of fossil fuels that has prevailed over the past 200 years. The fossil fuel era is drawing to a close.”
This message, coming from a leader who has both curbed Amazon deforestation and supported domestic oil exploration, electrified the summit’s early days. Local leaders, businesses, and civil society groups—especially Indigenous representatives, whose voices were welcomed for the first time since 2021—rallied around Lula’s call for roadmaps to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation. More than 80 nations joined the push for a detailed global plan to sharply reduce the use of gas, oil, and coal, as noted by The Associated Press.
Yet, as the days ticked by, the optimism that had filled the pre-conference summits in Rio and São Paulo began to fade. According to analysis published by UN Climate Change, the COP30 Presidency initially made space for countries to air their most contentious concerns, sidestepping the procedural battles that often bog down early negotiations. The so-called Mutirão Decision opened the floor for frank dialogue on climate finance, trade, and the pace of emissions cuts. New coalitions of countries, with Europe playing a supporting role, called for the highest possible ambition—including a clear, time-bound roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels.
But the momentum soon hit a wall. The second week of the conference was marred by a series of setbacks, beginning with a fire that broke out in the pavilions area of the sprawling (and flammable) tent complex. The incident forced evacuations and cost negotiators precious time. Behind closed doors, the COP Presidency circulated a draft Mutirão Decision that many felt ignored the most ambitious calls for progress. Consultations were tightly controlled, and the package presented to delegates was described as “take it or leave it”—with little room for input from parties or experts.
When the first draft of the final resolution emerged, the backlash was swift and fierce. The European Union, along with several Latin American, Pacific Island, and other nations, flatly rejected a text that failed to even mention fossil fuels as the cause of climate change—let alone set a timeline for phasing them out. As Tuvalu’s environment minister Maina Vakafua Talia lamented, “After 10 years, this process is still failing,” referencing the decade since the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. Panama’s negotiator Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez was even more blunt: “A climate decision that cannot even say ‘fossil fuels’ is not neutrality, it is complicity. Science has been deleted from COP30 because it offends the polluters.”
Despite these protests, the final decision announced on November 22 was, in the eyes of many, a letdown. While it included a modest increase in funding to help developing nations adapt to climate change, it conspicuously avoided any reference to fossil fuels or deadlines to reduce their use. Environmental activists and some world leaders decried the influence of major oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, which have long resisted efforts to limit fossil fuel production. As reported by The Associated Press, Brazil’s COP President André Corrêa do Lago gaveled in the text while promising to continue the discussion of fossil fuels and work with Colombia on a roadmap for the future.
The closing plenary was chaotic, with disputes erupting on the floor. Russia hurled insults at fellow parties, objections to the adaptation goal indicators (which had been rewritten by the Presidency without consultation) prompted a suspension of proceedings, and some delegates raised concerns about the transparency of the process. According to UN Climate Change, further references to “Trumpism” and pushback against gender equality decisions added to the turmoil. The heated debates underscored the central paradox of COP negotiations: the consensus rule gives small nations a powerful voice, but also makes it excruciatingly difficult to reach bold, binding agreements.
In the end, COP30 delivered neither a grand victory nor a total collapse. The outcome left the door open for future progress, particularly through the reference to the UAE Dialogue—now upgraded and anchored in the COP30 decision—which allows the process to build on work already done since last year’s summit in Dubai. The COP30 President will lead a new initiative to develop roadmaps for accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation, with a high-level event planned for 2026. However, the absence of a clear, time-bound fossil fuel transition plan means that much of the hard work has simply been kicked down the road.
For many, the conference’s location in Belém was both symbolic and practical. Lula’s vision was to bring the world to the Amazon, to help delegates and observers alike understand what’s at stake—and to give Indigenous peoples a central role in the conversation. But the city’s limited infrastructure raised logistical questions, and the fire at the venue only highlighted the challenges of hosting such a massive event on the rainforest’s doorstep.
As the dust settles, attention now turns to COP31, set for Turkey next year. “All eyes are already turning to COP31,” said Lidy Nacpil, coordinator of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development. Many delegates and activists are hoping that the next conference will succeed where COP30 fell short—delivering not just words, but real, enforceable action.
The real test, as UN Climate Change put it, will be what happens next: whether the countries that championed a fossil fuel roadmap can turn this imperfect outcome into concrete alliances, new finance, and real-economy decisions before the next round of national climate plans is finalized. The world needed Belém to put down a sharper marker on fossil fuels and finance. Instead, the COP30 rollercoaster ends on a fragile track—one that future presidencies, with support from the EU and others, will need to strengthen if global climate goals are to remain within reach.
