Political winds are swirling fiercely in Maine, where the latest University of New Hampshire poll has upended expectations for both Senate and House races ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The results, released on October 23, 2025, show a surprising surge for Graham Platner, a political newcomer with a populist bent, and a tightening contest in the state’s pivotal 2nd Congressional District. With controversies, shifting alliances, and national party strategists watching closely, Maine’s electoral landscape is anything but settled.
According to WGME, Graham Platner, an oysterman from Downeast Maine who has never held public office, is now leading the Democratic Senate primary with a staggering 58% support, far ahead of Governor Janet Mills, who trails at 24%. The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, comes just a week after Mills formally entered the race, shaking up what was already an unpredictable primary. Platner’s campaign, marked by energetic rallies and a populist message, has drawn large crowds—and a fair share of controversy.
Much of the controversy centers on Platner’s past, particularly a tattoo on his chest that closely resembled a Nazi symbol, inked in 2007. Platner has since had the tattoo covered up, but the revelation—alongside resurfaced online comments—has prompted heated debate within the Democratic Party and beyond. As reported by Breitbart News, the poll was conducted before news of the tattoo became widely known, raising questions about whether Platner’s commanding lead will hold as the primary season progresses and scrutiny intensifies.
Political observers are watching closely to see how the tattoo controversy and Platner’s previous comments might impact his prospects. The episode has already sparked concern among party officials and could have ripple effects down the ballot. As one might expect, Republicans have seized on the controversy, seeing an opportunity to paint Maine Democrats as divided and out of touch.
Governor Janet Mills, who only recently joined the Senate contest, finds herself in an unusual position—playing catch-up in her own party. Mills, a longtime fixture in Maine politics, has a reputation for steady leadership, but the early poll numbers suggest she faces a steep uphill battle. With the primary still nearly a year away, her campaign is expected to ramp up efforts to connect with voters and draw sharper contrasts with Platner, particularly as the controversy surrounding him continues to unfold.
The Democratic primary isn’t the only race drawing national attention. In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Republican Paul LePage—a former three-term governor with a reputation for combative politics—leads incumbent Democrat Jared Golden by five points, 49% to 44%. This district, which covers much of rural Maine, is considered one of the most competitive in the country. As noted by Breitbart News, Golden is one of thirteen House Democrats representing districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024, making him a top target for Republican campaign groups in the 2026 cycle.
Golden’s position has become increasingly precarious. His favorability ratings have slipped, and he now faces a primary challenge from Matt Dunlap, a former state official whose popularity is nearly on par with Golden’s, according to the same University of New Hampshire poll. In August, before Dunlap entered the race, Golden’s numbers were only two points ahead of Dunlap’s—a sign that the incumbent’s grip on his seat may be loosening.
Republican strategists are relishing the opportunity. Maureen O’Toole, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), said in a statement: “Poll after poll proves what we’ve been saying all along: Jared Golden’s serial flip-flopping has caught up to him and Mainers are ready for change. No one likes Jared Golden. He should drop out to save face and preserve what little credibility (16%) he has left.” Lydia Hall, representing the Congressional Leadership Fund, echoed the sentiment, underscoring the GOP’s determination to flip the seat.
LePage’s history in the district only adds to the challenge for Democrats. He won Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in each of his three gubernatorial campaigns, cementing his appeal among rural and working-class voters. With the latest poll showing him ahead and the national GOP prioritizing the race, Golden’s path to re-election looks increasingly narrow.
Ron Schmidt, professor and chair of the political science department at the University of Southern Maine, offered his perspective on the unusual energy animating Maine’s midterm contests. “It’s still very early for a midterm election. Usually, you don’t see this kind of energy in a year when the presidency isn’t on the line. It definitely makes sense. Maine has a lot of national importance right now,” Schmidt told WGME. His comments reflect a broader sense that Maine’s races could have outsized consequences for the balance of power in Washington.
Some Democrats worry that the controversies swirling around Platner could harm the party’s prospects not just in the Senate race, but down-ballot as well. The tattoo revelation, in particular, has become a lightning rod, with critics arguing that Platner’s past could alienate moderate voters and energize Republican turnout. Others, however, point to Platner’s populist message and grassroots appeal as evidence that he could defy expectations—if he can weather the storm of negative headlines.
For now, both parties are bracing for a long, hard-fought campaign season. The Democratic establishment faces a delicate balancing act: supporting candidates with broad appeal while managing the fallout from controversies that threaten to overshadow their message. Meanwhile, Republicans are sharpening their attacks, eager to exploit divisions and capitalize on any perceived weakness.
With the election still a year away, much can change. The coming months will see increased campaigning, more polling, and, undoubtedly, further twists as candidates seek to define themselves and their opponents. For voters in Maine, the stakes couldn’t be higher—control of the Senate and House could hinge on the choices they make.
As the dust settles from this round of polling, one thing is clear: Maine’s political landscape is in flux, with new faces, old rivalries, and high drama setting the stage for a midterm showdown that’s sure to capture the nation’s attention.
