In a dramatic turn for U.S. energy and climate policy, the federal government’s recent pivot toward fossil fuels—especially coal—has ignited a fierce debate over the nation’s environmental future and economic direction. As Congress moves to cement many of the Trump administration’s energy priorities into law, analysts warn that the gains made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the past two decades could slow or even reverse, with far-reaching consequences for both the climate and American industry.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States made significant progress from 2005 to 2023, with per capita emissions falling in every state and overall energy-related emissions dropping by 20% nationwide. This decline was largely fueled by a steady move away from coal in the electric power sector, as cleaner energy sources like natural gas, wind, and solar gained ground. But the EIA’s most recent outlook, released in late July, forecasts a temporary reversal in coal’s decline in 2025. The agency attributes this to rising electricity demand and coal’s increasing competitiveness in the electric power sector, which remains coal’s primary domain. As a result, the EIA expects total U.S. emissions to tick up by 1% this year—a small but symbolic shift after years of progress.
Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, releases more carbon dioxide per unit of energy than oil or natural gas. Efforts to cut U.S. emissions have historically targeted the coal industry, imposing strict regulations in the name of combating global warming. Yet, the Trump administration has taken a markedly different approach, expanding coal mine operations across the West and allowing some coal-fired power plants to remain open beyond their scheduled retirement dates. These moves, according to congressional Republicans, are part of a broader strategy to achieve what they call "energy dominance."
The legislative branch has followed suit. On September 18, 2025, the House voted 217-209 along party lines to permanently reauthorize the National Coal Council, a federal advisory body that had been restarted by the Energy Department in June. The council, which advises on policy, technology, and research related to coal, would be excused from a sunset clause in the Federal Advisory Committee Act if the bill becomes law. Rep. Michael Rulli, R-Ohio, who introduced the bill, declared, "For decades, the National Coal Council was a powerful voice for coal and a tireless champion for American workers and communities. Coal has reliably fueled our factories, powered our homes, and helped build the greatest economy the world has ever known—it’s ridiculous to neglect it." He added, "We need common-sense, energy policies that keep coal in the mix, strengthen our grid, and protect good-paying jobs. Codifying the National Coal Council into law ensures that politics doesn’t get in the way of good policy."
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., celebrated the bill’s passage, saying, "Republicans are delivering on our promise to strengthen the grid, create American jobs, and lower energy costs for American families. This week, House Republicans passed three pieces of key legislation to build on the energy provisions within the historic Working Families Tax Cuts and codify President Trump’s Executive Orders to unleash American energy."
Not everyone is cheering. Congressional Democrats have voiced deep frustration over what they see as a retreat from affordable, homegrown clean energy. The House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition, a group of Democrats, issued a pointed statement: "This week, House Republicans continued their assault on affordable, homegrown clean energy, passing a slate of bills that double down on dirty, expensive fossil fuels. Instead of tackling the cost-of-living crisis, Republicans seem intent to live in the past, trying to resurrect abandoned pipeline projects and bringing back the ‘golden age’ of coal mining." They warned, "Far from energy dominance, propping up dirty and expensive coal, rewriting pipeline policies to pump more foreign oil into America, and hamstringing the most affordable sources of energy in our nation is a one-way road to irrelevance."
Beyond the legislative arena, the Trump administration has moved to rescind the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2009 endangerment finding, which gives the agency authority to regulate greenhouse gases. If finalized, this would represent a seismic shift in U.S. climate policy, effectively stripping the EPA of a crucial tool for curbing emissions. Public comment on this proposal closes September 22, 2025, and environmental advocates are watching closely.
Meanwhile, independent analysis suggests the stakes are high. The Rhodium Group’s Taking Stock 2025 report projects that, depending on the policy scenario, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions will be 26% to 41% lower in 2040 compared with 2005 levels. But here’s the catch: the pace of decarbonization is expected to slow dramatically. From 2005 to 2024, annual emissions reductions averaged 1.1%. That rate is projected to drop to just 0.4% from 2025 to 2040—a 64% decline. The report attributes this slowdown largely to the Trump administration’s policy changes and congressional actions.
Those changes include a second withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, ending federal tax credits for electric vehicles, eliminating emissions rules for fossil fuel power plants, and blocking wind and solar projects. The Rhodium Group notes, "The effects of these policy shifts are compounded by rapid growth in electricity demand driven predominantly by the growth in large AI data centers, a weakening macroeconomic outlook, and an increasingly export-driven fossil fuel sector." The report also cautions that projections are subject to "considerable uncertainty, including an incredibly dynamic policy environment and persistent non-cost barriers to clean energy deployment."
There are glimmers of hope in the data. Under more optimistic policy scenarios, the pace of decarbonization could accelerate, with annual emissions declines of 1.4% to 1.9%. The power sector, which has driven much of the progress so far, is projected to emit 15% to 43% less carbon in 2040 compared to 2024, even as electricity demand grows. Transportation emissions are expected to fall 8% to 20% as zero-emissions vehicles become more common, thanks to falling battery prices and greater consumer acceptance. Industrial emissions, closely tied to oil and gas, are also projected to decline by 4% to 19%.
Still, the overall picture is one of uncertainty and division. Republicans argue that prioritizing coal and other fossil fuels will secure American jobs, energy independence, and low costs. Democrats counter that this approach jeopardizes both the environment and the country’s competitive edge in the global clean energy race. The debate, it seems, is far from settled—and with the EPA’s regulatory authority hanging in the balance, the next chapter in America’s energy story promises to be just as contentious as the last.
As policymakers, industry leaders, and citizens weigh in, the choices made now will shape the nation’s energy landscape for decades to come.
