September has arrived in New York, and with it comes a flurry of weather updates, forecasts, and safety alerts that could shape the region’s coming months. As meteorological fall begins, experts are closely tracking early signals that suggest a colder-than-usual winter for New York and much of the eastern United States. Combined with immediate weather changes and fresh safety advisories, residents have plenty to watch as the seasons shift.
According to PIX11, September 2025 marks the official start of meteorological fall—a period when meteorologists ramp up their monitoring of atmospheric patterns that could determine what kind of winter lies ahead. This year, there’s already a buzz among weather watchers. The CANSIPS forecast model, developed in Canada and respected for its large-scale atmospheric analyses, is currently pointing to a strong blocking pattern near the Aleutian Islands. In meteorological terms, this signals a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation, or -EPO.
Why does this matter? When the EPO is in a negative phase, it allows cold air to pool over western Canada and Alaska. Eventually, this chilly air mass is pushed southward, spilling into the central and eastern United States. As PIX11 explains, this is a classic precursor to a colder-than-average winter. And it’s not just a fleeting blip—this -EPO signature has been popping up repeatedly throughout August and September 2025. If such patterns persist into the fall, forecasters grow increasingly confident that the trend will continue through winter.
But the story doesn’t end there. The Pacific Ocean is also expected to remain in what meteorologists call an ENSO-neutral state. That means neither El Niño nor La Niña—two major climate drivers—will dominate the scene. Without a strong Pacific signal to tip the scales, other atmospheric connections, like the -EPO, take on a bigger role in shaping North America’s winter weather. The upshot? As PIX11 reports, these converging factors suggest a strong signal for colder-than-normal conditions across much of the eastern and northeastern United States during the 2025-2026 winter season. For snow lovers, that’s promising news: sustained cold boosts the odds of more frequent and heavier snow events.
While the long-range outlook has many bracing for a frosty season, the immediate forecast in New York and the Hudson Valley offers a more mixed bag. The National Weather Service, as reported by the Times Herald-Record and Poughkeepsie Journal, predicts that Friday, September 13, 2025, will bring warm, sunny weather to the mid-Hudson Valley. In Orange, Dutchess, and Ulster counties, highs are expected to reach the upper 70s, while Sullivan County will see slightly cooler mid-70s. Sullivan County may wake up to some patchy fog before 7 a.m., but skies should clear quickly, leaving most areas basking in sunshine or at least partly cloudy conditions. Nighttime lows will dip into the upper 50s for most counties, and lower 50s in Sullivan.
However, by Saturday, September 14, the weather will shift. The National Weather Service projects partly sunny skies in Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties, but more persistent clouds in Orange County. Highs will remain similar to Friday, but rain showers are likely to move in after 2 p.m. There’s a 40% chance of showers in Dutchess, Ulster, and Sullivan counties, and a 30% chance in Orange County. Ulster County, in particular, might see thunderstorms—potentially continuing into the night. Nighttime lows will again settle in the mid-50s for most, and the low 50s for Sullivan County. The chance of showers persists into the night, according to the National Weather Service’s detailed forecast.
While most of the region is focused on upcoming rain and cooler temperatures, Nassau County faces a different kind of weather alert. On Thursday, September 11, 2025, at 4:02 p.m., the National Weather Service issued a coastal flood statement valid for Friday, September 12, between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. The advisory warns of up to one half foot of inundation above ground level in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. As the weather service puts it, "Brief minor flooding of the more vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline" is expected. The agency is clear in its guidance: "Do not drive through flooded roadways."
Flooding, even at minor levels, can pose significant hazards—especially in low-lying or flood-prone zones. The National Weather Service, as cited by Advance Local Weather Alerts, offers a suite of safety guidelines for residents. First and foremost: seek higher ground if you’re in a flood-prone area or camping in a low-lying spot. If local authorities issue an evacuation order, follow it promptly. Before leaving, lock your home and, if time allows, disconnect utilities and appliances to reduce the risk of electrical hazards. Avoid basements or rooms submerged in water where outlets or cords are present. Should you observe sparks or hear buzzing, crackling, snapping, or popping noises, evacuate immediately—water may be electrically charged. Never attempt to walk through floodwaters, even if they appear shallow; just six inches of fast-moving water can sweep you off your feet. If you become trapped by rising water, head for the highest point available and call 911 for help.
Driving during heavy rain or flooding presents its own set of challenges. The weather service recommends maintaining safe distances on wet roads, slowing down, and using the middle lanes to reduce the risk of hydroplaning. The first half-hour of rainfall is often the slickest, thanks to a mix of rain, grime, and oil on the pavement. Stay vigilant for large vehicles that can reduce visibility with tire spray, and always use your headlights. If visibility drops so low that you can’t see the road’s edge or other vehicles, pull over and wait for conditions to improve—preferably at a rest area or, if necessary, well off the roadside. Keep your emergency flashers on to alert other drivers of your position.
As New Yorkers look ahead to the rest of September and the approaching winter, there’s plenty to consider. The immediate forecast offers both sun and rain, with the possibility of thunderstorms and minor flooding. But the longer-term signals—particularly the persistent -EPO pattern and ENSO-neutral Pacific—point to a winter that could be colder, and perhaps snowier, than recent years. For now, the best advice is to stay informed, heed local advisories, and prepare for whatever the coming months may bring.
With meteorologists and the National Weather Service continuing to monitor patterns and issue timely updates, residents can count on having the information they need to weather the changes—whether it’s a sudden September downpour or the first big snowstorm of winter.
