Global climate change, once a distant worry, now feels like a relentless drumbeat in the daily lives of millions. The evidence is everywhere—from the numbers that chart our collective progress on emissions, to the lived experiences of those battered by hurricanes and wildfires, to the subtle but persistent toll on our mental health. As the world gathers for the COP30 climate summit in Brazil this November, the urgency to address not only environmental but also psychological impacts of climate change has never been clearer.
According to a comprehensive chart published by Axios on November 13, 2025, there has been measurable progress in curbing global energy-related CO2 emissions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) once predicted, back in 2014, that emissions would soar to 50 gigatons by 2050. Fast forward to today, and current policies are projected to reduce that figure to about 38 gigatons. Even more optimistically, if additional policies under consideration are enacted, emissions could drop to roughly 30 gigatons by mid-century. While these numbers represent real progress, they also serve as a sobering reminder: every scenario still points to significant global warming, with all the attendant risks.
“This progress is not part of the prevailing view of climate change, but it should be,” philanthropist Bill Gates wrote in a recent memo, highlighting the positive trajectory visible in the emissions data. Clean energy sources—especially wind and solar—have expanded rapidly over the past decade, propelled by policies in major economies like China, Germany, and the United States. These renewables are now more affordable than ever, driving the energy transition forward even as climate policies in some regions, notably the U.S., have stalled.
Natural gas, which emits far less carbon dioxide than coal, has provided a short-term reduction in emissions. However, its long-term role is more complicated, as experts debate its place in a sustainable future. The IEA chart outlines three scenarios: the 2014 projection, today’s current policy projection, and a more hopeful future if pending policies are adopted. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, cautioned in Axios, “There is no guarantee that we will take stronger action on climate change in the future. I hope we will. I think we will because that's been the trend over the last few decades. If the 21st century is led by leaders who share ideology closer to the Trump administration, we won't.”
Yet, as the world works to slow the pace of warming, scientists warn of another, almost paradoxical risk: the possibility that the Earth’s own regulatory systems could one day overcorrect, plunging the planet into a deep freeze. A new study published in Science and reported by Popular Mechanics on November 14, 2025, delves into these long-term feedback loops. Earth’s natural thermostat, the slow weathering of silicate rocks, typically absorbs CO2 and cools the planet over millennia. But researchers from the University of Bremen and UC Riverside found that biological and oceanic processes—specifically, massive algal blooms fueled by excess nutrients and warmer waters—could accelerate carbon sequestration far beyond what silicate weathering alone can achieve.
“When the planet warms, rocks weather faster and absorb more CO2, allowing the Earth to cool down again,” explained study co-author Dominik Hülse. However, the study’s computer models showed that if algal blooms become supercharged, they could trigger a runaway cooling effect, sending global temperatures plummeting to levels far below pre-industrial norms. “In the computer model of the study this can trigger an ice age. With the silicate weathering alone, we were unable to simulate such extreme values,” Hülse noted.
This process, while fascinating, unfolds over hundreds of thousands of years—far too slowly to help with the rapid, human-driven warming currently underway. “At the end of the day, does it really matter much if the start of the next ice age is 50, 100, or 200 thousand years into the future?” said co-author Andy Ridgwell. “We need to focus now on limiting ongoing warming. That the Earth will naturally cool back down is not going to happen fast enough to help us out.” The good news, if it can be called that, is that Earth’s current oxygen-rich atmosphere will likely prevent a return to the ‘snowball Earth’ conditions of the distant past.
But while these planetary mechanisms operate on geological time scales, the impacts of climate change are already immediate and deeply personal for many people. On November 14, 2025, The Invading Sea published a powerful account of the mental health toll exacted by extreme weather. Anna Turns recounted the harrowing experience of a friend who fled the British Virgin Islands during Hurricane Irma in 2017, only to face new trauma when Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica eight years later. Both storms intensified rapidly—an effect scientists attribute to global warming.
“Once the winds fall silent, anxiety and grief settle in,” wrote psychology researchers Gulnaz Anjum and Mudassar Aziz. The phenomenon they describe as ‘deep anticipatory anxiety’ lingers long after the physical danger has passed, compounding with each new disaster. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change only recently, in 2022, highlighted the serious risks climate change poses to mental wellbeing.
Some communities are especially vulnerable: farming populations facing drought, those living in flood or wildfire zones, and people with fewer economic resources. Research from Florida International University, cited in The Invading Sea, found that the mental health effects of disasters extend far beyond the immediate area. In fact, children in San Diego who watched extensive media coverage of Hurricane Irma reported post-traumatic stress symptoms at rates similar to children in Florida, directly in the storm’s path.
Trauma from climate disasters doesn’t just affect emotions; it can alter the very way our brains function. Jyoti Mishra, a psychiatry professor at the University of California, San Diego, found that survivors of the 2018 Paradise, California wildfire showed changes in memory, attention, and the ability to process distractions—signs that the brain is working overtime to cope with the aftermath.
Globally, over a billion people already live with a mental health condition, according to the World Health Organization. Climate change will only “intensify” these challenges, United Nations University researchers warn. They argue that mental health support must be woven into every climate adaptation and disaster response plan—and not just in the immediate aftermath, but for the long haul. Funding for such support should be a priority at global summits like COP30, to help build more resilient societies and empower future generations to take climate action.
As Mishra put it, “Resilient mental health is what allows us to recover from traumatic experiences. How humans experience and mentally deal with climate catastrophes sets the stage for our future lives.” The path forward is daunting, but the progress made—and the resilience shown by individuals and communities—offers hope that humanity can weather the storm, both physically and emotionally.
