India’s specialty fertiliser sector is staring down the barrel of another supply crunch as China prepares to reimpose export restrictions starting October 2025. For Indian farmers and the companies that serve them, the news couldn’t come at a more precarious time—right as the peak demand season for specialty fertilisers kicks into high gear.
This looming disruption was confirmed across multiple Indian news outlets on August 31, 2025. According to News Arena Network, China’s new export curbs won’t be an outright ban, but rather a tightening of the screws through increased inspections and delayed consignments. Rajiv Chakraborty, President of the Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA), summed it up bluntly: “It’s a temporary fix because China is closing the export window from October. They will be closing it for the entire world market, not only for India.”
India’s reliance on Chinese specialty fertilisers is staggering. As outlined by Times Now News, nearly 80 percent of these fertilisers are imported directly from China, with another 15 to 20 percent coming indirectly through Chinese channels. Domestic production covers a mere 5 percent of the country’s needs. This dependency has only deepened since 2005, when European suppliers began sourcing from China to serve the Indian market. Today, the vast majority of specialty fertilisers used by Indian farmers—especially those for cash crops and horticulture—come from across the Himalayas.
Why does this matter so much right now? The answer lies in the agricultural calendar. As Chakraborty explained, “The actual season for usage of specialty fertiliser starts from September, wherein various cash crops, horticultural crops like grapes, banana, farmers start using drip irrigation and then they use soluble fertilizer and specialty fertiliser extensively.” In other words, the timing of China’s export window closure couldn’t be more critical for Indian growers.
Indian specialty fertiliser companies are scrambling to secure as much supply as possible before the October deadline hits. “We have very good global sourcing players in the market who will be sourcing their entire consignments and requirements in this one month only. Many of them are SFIA members also,” Chakraborty told PTI. Procurement teams are working around the clock, trying to fill warehouses with enough stock to see farmers through the coming season. Yet, as anyone in the industry will tell you, there’s only so much they can do in a month.
The mechanism of China’s restrictions is as much about bureaucracy as it is about policy. Rather than slamming the door shut, Beijing typically slows the flow of goods through rigorous inspections and by dragging out the shipping process. “Once they stop the supplies or they start restricting the supplies, they don’t stop it completely. They restrict it by imposing inspections and delaying the consignments. So that process will start again from October,” Chakraborty explained. This approach, while less dramatic than a full ban, still creates major headaches for importers and, by extension, the farmers who depend on timely deliveries.
The ripple effects of these curbs are already well documented. Earlier in 2025, a previous halt in Chinese specialty fertiliser exports triggered a 40 percent price surge and led to supply shortages across India’s specialty segment. Fortunately, the timing of that disruption limited its impact on actual farming operations, since it occurred before the main usage season. But with the new restrictions set to coincide with peak demand, the stakes are even higher.
“We will not see much impact this time except the price hikes... Anyway price hikes will impact farmers directly,” Chakraborty warned, as reported by Times Now News. For India’s vast population of smallholder farmers, even a modest increase in input costs can be devastating. Specialty fertilisers are crucial for maximizing yields in high-value crops like grapes and bananas, especially under drip irrigation systems. When prices spike, some farmers may be forced to cut back on usage, potentially hurting both productivity and incomes.
Is there any relief on the horizon? Industry insiders are cautiously optimistic that indigenous supplies could help offset some of the shortfall by mid-season. According to News Arena Network, the sector expects domestic production to ramp up, providing a partial buffer against the supply crunch. However, with only 5 percent of specialty fertilisers currently produced in India, this is unlikely to be a silver bullet. Most experts agree that price increases are inevitable, and that these will be felt most acutely by those at the end of the supply chain: the farmers themselves.
The broader context of India-China relations adds another layer of complexity. At the time of reporting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. While diplomatic ties may appear to be on an upswing, the resumption of export curbs underscores the limits of political goodwill when it comes to hard economic interests. As News Arena Network put it, “While issues between India and China appear resolved for now, the restriction pattern is expected to resume.”
So, what happens next? Indian companies will continue to race against the clock, importing as much as they can before October. Global sourcing firms are playing a pivotal role, leveraging their networks to secure consignments from wherever possible. But with China controlling the lion’s share of global specialty fertiliser production—and with export restrictions looming—there’s only so much that can be done to cushion the blow.
For policymakers, the current crisis is a wake-up call. India’s overwhelming dependence on a single foreign supplier for such a critical input leaves its agricultural sector dangerously exposed to external shocks. Calls for increased domestic production and diversification of supply sources are likely to grow louder in the coming months. But building up local capacity takes time, investment, and technological know-how—none of which can be conjured up overnight.
Meanwhile, the country’s farmers are bracing for a season of uncertainty. With input costs set to rise and supply chains under strain, many will be forced to make tough choices about how much—and what type—of fertiliser to apply. Some may gamble on reduced usage, risking lower yields. Others may absorb the higher prices, hoping that strong market demand for cash crops will offset their increased costs.
One thing is clear: China’s decision to reimpose export restrictions on specialty fertilisers is set to send shockwaves through India’s agricultural sector. The effects will be felt from the docks of Mumbai to the vineyards of Nashik, and from the boardrooms of fertiliser companies to the fields of smallholder farmers. As the clock ticks down to October, the race is on to secure supplies, stabilize prices, and protect the livelihoods of millions who depend on a steady—and affordable—flow of specialty fertilisers.
With the peak season approaching and the policy clock ticking, India’s fertiliser sector faces a critical test of resilience and adaptability—one that will shape the fortunes of farmers and the food security of the nation in the months ahead.
