It’s been a tumultuous year for the global commodities market, with rare earth elements and industrial metals at the epicenter of geopolitical and economic upheaval. On October 15, 2025, a flurry of reports from Zacks Investment Research, Seeking Alpha, and a press release from Permutable AI painted a vivid picture: the world’s supply chains are being redrawn, and investors, manufacturers, and governments are scrambling to adapt.
Rare earth elements—think neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—aren’t household names, but they’re the backbone of clean energy technologies. These minerals are essential for permanent magnets found in wind turbines and electric vehicle (EV) motors, not to mention advanced batteries and specialized solar panels. According to Zacks Investment Research, EVs are six times more mineral-intensive than traditional fossil fuel vehicles, underscoring just how critical these elements are to the green transition.
But here’s the rub: China processes about 90% of the world’s rare earth metals, as the Center for Strategic and International Studies highlighted in a 2024 report. This dominance has become a strategic lever in the escalating rivalry between the U.S. and China. In October 2025, China tightened export controls on five more rare earth metals, building on restrictions it introduced back in April. The move sent shockwaves through the U.S. clean energy sector, which relies heavily on Chinese supply chains.
The U.S. faces a glaring vulnerability. Its only rare earth mine, Mountain Pass in California, produces just a fraction of domestic needs—and most of that output still heads overseas, primarily to China, for processing. The lack of a homegrown processing infrastructure leaves American manufacturers exposed to supply bottlenecks and price volatility. As Zacks Investment Research put it, "China’s new restrictions may result in short-term bottlenecks, supply instability, and increased costs for manufacturers in the renewable energy industry, potentially slowing the growth of America’s energy transition."
The global context is just as fraught. Permutable, a London-based AI-driven market intelligence firm, announced on October 15 that it’s expanding its commodity coverage to include industrial metals like steel, aluminium, copper, lithium, iron, lead, tin, zinc, nickel, and uranium. This expansion, as Permutable’s founder and CEO Wilson Chan explained, is a response to "strong client demand and growing market volatility," driven by geopolitical instability and shifting trade policies.
"Industrial metals are increasingly tied to global policy and the green economy. Yet, with rising tariffs, strategic rivalries, and weaker demand, volatility is at a decade high. Our AI platform enables institutional clients to understand and act on these shifting dynamics in real time," Chan stated in the company’s press release. The platform processes more than 50,000 news articles and market events daily, using artificial intelligence to detect supply disruptions, policy shifts, and macroeconomic trends before they hit the markets.
Jack Watson, a market analyst at Permutable, added, "The combination of trade fragmentation, slowing growth, and strategic competition has made real-time intelligence essential. Our system turns thousands of unstructured data points into actionable market signals."
The need for such intelligence is clear. Aggressive U.S. tariffs and China’s strategic export controls have upended long-established supply routes, distorting prices and forcing other nations to seek alternative—and often more expensive—sources of critical minerals. Meanwhile, China’s property sector, a major consumer of steel and copper, is struggling, which has dampened global demand and added another layer of complexity to the market outlook.
Permutable’s Trading Co-Pilot platform now offers a unified view across industrial metals, energy, agriculture, and precious metals. Institutional investors can use this data for backtesting, automated strategy development, and risk calibration—tools that are becoming indispensable as the traditional playbook for commodities investment is rewritten in real time.
For investors, the rare earth supply shock has forced a rethink. As Seeking Alpha noted in an opinion piece published October 15, investing in the rare earth supply chain—such as through the NYSEARCA:REMX ETF—has become a high-stakes game. The author, who disclosed no personal holdings in the companies mentioned, emphasized that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and that volatility is likely to persist as the geopolitical chess match continues.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Some clean energy Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have weathered the storm remarkably well. According to Zacks Investment Research, funds with global exposure—especially those with significant operations in Asia—have surged since China’s first round of export controls in April. The Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) jumped 92.5%, the Fidelity Clean Energy ETF (FRNW) climbed 54.7%, and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) rose 38.2%.
These ETFs’ top holdings are companies deeply embedded in Asian markets, which have been less affected by the U.S.-China spat. For instance, Navitas Semiconductor, a PBW holding, derived 60% of its 2024 revenues from China. Fluence Energy, another PBW component, boasts a strong presence across Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, India, the Philippines, and Japan. Similarly, Bloom Energy (in FRNW and ICLN) has significant operations in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and India, while First Solar maintains manufacturing facilities in India, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Vestas Wind Systems, a key ICLN holding, had 16 gigawatts of its development pipeline in the Asia-Pacific region as of mid-2025.
The rationale is simple: as Asia leads the world in renewable capacity growth—accounting for 71% of new renewables added in 2024, compared to just 7.8% for North America—investors are seeking safety in diversification. Funds with a global footprint are proving more resilient to regional supply shocks and policy headwinds.
Still, the risks are real and evolving. The rare earth crunch and industrial metal volatility are symptoms of deeper shifts: a move away from global cooperation toward protectionist, national-interest-driven policies. As China flexes its muscle over mineral exports and the U.S. scrambles to shore up domestic supply chains, the landscape for clean energy and industrial investment is being fundamentally altered.
Permutable, for its part, is seeking strategic investment partners to accelerate its growth and expand its market intelligence capabilities. The company’s AI-powered approach may offer a crucial edge in navigating the uncertainty that now defines the commodities market.
For now, investors, manufacturers, and governments alike are watching the data, the headlines, and each other—trying to anticipate the next move in a high-stakes global game where minerals, metals, and market intelligence are the new currency of power.
